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You know where I stand.
Too optimistic.
Too pessimistic.
As optimistic as the circumstances will allow; sober and levelheaded.
Don't know.
Too busy preparing my family's survival bunker.
Are Officials Too Optimistic About the Economy?
By Catherine Rampell Are government officials being too optimistic about the country’s near-term economic health? Some seem to think so.
In testimony today before the House Financial Services Committee, James K. Galbraith, a University of Texas professor, asserted that the baseline forecast for the economy is too optimistic. He also said the stimulus bill was too small, the banking plan would not work and offered other gloomy insights (as well as some policy prescriptions, of course).
Early on in his statement, he even implied that the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, was an “unfounded optimist” regarding the likely success of current economic policy:Chairman Bernanke, in his speech at London in January, said “the global economy will recover.” He did not say how he knows. And the truth is, this is merely a statement of faith. In present conditions the most dangerous position is that of the unfounded optimist. Those who use this position to defend a program of inaction, or of little action, or to defend a program of action that is geared to a forecast of automatic recovery, might possibly turn out to be right. There might be a deliverance. But to rely on that possibility in the design of policy is surely unwise.Also today, The Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog argued that the 2010 budget the Obama administration just announced was perhaps unrealistically rosy:The famed Rosy Scenario, coined in the early days of the Reagan White House when large tax cuts and higher defense spending were assumed to be paid for in part by strong economic growth, is a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s first multiyear budget.Some analysts, including Brian Bethune at IHS Global Insight and Mic e Meyer at Barclays Capital, also wrote their clients that the budget’s projections seem overly sunny.
After contracting at a 1.2% rate in 2009, a more modest drop than the Congressional Budget Office and Blue Chip Consensus forecasts assume, the White House sees growth domestic product growth snapping back by 3.2% next year and then 4% or higher the three years after that.
The last time the economy performed that well was the New Economy heyday of the late 1990s.
Wolf Blitzer, in a “Situation Room” interview with the Office of Management and Budget director, Peter Orszag, asked about whether the report contained “wildly optimistic, rosy scenarios.”
Mr. Orszag replied:Well, Christina Romer, who chairs the Council of Economic Advisers, leads a team of professional economists who put together that forecast. One of the things that happens when you go through a very deep recession like we are now is that, as you emerge from the recession, the economy temporarily grows faster than normal just because your starting point is so low.On the other hand, the Atlantic blogger Megan McArdle writes that aspects of the 2010 budget were overly pessimistic, perhaps in order to allow the administration “to deliver upside surprises” later in the president’s term.
Last edited by Winehole23; 02-27-2009 at 10:28 AM.
You know where I stand.
4th QTR US GDP is revised downward from -3.8 to -6.2.
Candid.
Thanks for the kind reply.
WH23.
Considering they will collapse the country with all this en lement spending. Yes.
For the record Wh23 unintentionally missvoted in his own poll, swelling the tally for too pessimistic. Wh23 does not regret the mistake.
To those who think the government is too pessimistic: I promise not to say "I told you so" when you come asking me for some of my canned food.
urp
A one year contraction of 1.2% is a "very deep recession"? Expect even greater manipulation than usual in future government statistics.After contracting at a 1.2% rate in 2009, a more modest drop than the Congressional Budget Office and Blue Chip Consensus forecasts assume, the White House sees GDP growth snapping back by 3.2% next year and then 4% or higher the three years after that.
The last time the economy performed that well was the New Economy heyday of the late 1990s.
"One of the things that happens when you go through a very deep recession like we are now is that, as you emerge from the recession, the economy temporarily grows faster than normal just because your starting point is so low."
http://www.shadowstats.com/
Hmm. I see what you mean. That was unintentionally funny. I had no idea the projected downside was so modest and gentle until you brought it to my attention.
In my own mind I guess I was already sketching in the possibilities somewhere between the official lie and the rumored one.
Uh-huh.
Thanks for the link. Is the subscription worth it?
Last edited by Winehole23; 02-28-2009 at 08:25 PM.
We're f'd.
An early trend favors black bile and survivalists.
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View Poll Results: Are US officials too opimistic or pessimistic about the economy? Too optimistic.5 38.46% Too pessimistic.
Polling reflects 3/4 Eeyore and survival guy, 1/4 Pollyanna and head-in-sand at the timestamp below.
Last edited by Winehole23; 03-01-2009 at 12:23 PM.
We should assume the worst.
The huge sector of the banking system is bankrupt.
I'm pessimistic that Magik Negro's plans will be able to dislodge the control over our lives that the corps and financial sectors have. Those vested interests have enormous power (aka $$$) to main their grip on us, fully and reliably supported by the 100% of Repug s and a fair number of Dem s. Actually, Congress is part of the plutocracy/kleptocracy ing us all over, with taxpayers picking Congress' free-for-life 5-star health coverage and exorbitant pensions.
Although the predictors now are the same predictors earlier who failed to predict (in pulbic) where we are now, they're saying 2009 is a lost cause, and AT LEAST well into 2010.
The Magik Negro has his description of the future just about right.
"It's going to be tough for probably a long time, but the US wil recover" ... with NO help from the Repugs, who will do everything, which of course includes their reflexive lying, to keep the US ed until 2010 elections and beyond.
Last edited by boutons_; 03-01-2009 at 02:45 PM.
Are you sure you assumed the worst? I ask because you segued into a magic negro fugue, and then you fussed over the monkeyshines of the GOP.
I used to not be moved by this sort of analysis, but it's much more appealing to me now. Better the whole country should default than a single megabank, or that our elected representatives should be asked to stint for any comfort.
Banks are still insolvent. Are you sure you assumed the worst?
How long is a long time? In your opinion.
How long does it take to consolidate the US banking system?
Last edited by Winehole23; 03-01-2009 at 06:52 PM.
The only good thing right now is I'm buying into my 401k at 50%! I'm getting a two-for-one on my retirement!
Investing into the teeth of the storm. Bold, WC.
The DK tally is zero. Typical.
you guys are buttwipes, we're fine.
dude if the govt starts to think pessimistic, that will just up everything the govt has been trying to do, keep the economy afloat with the stimulus, but it looks like it aint working, so prepare for the worst to come....what they dont need now is the consumers to stop aggregate demand and spending in the economy....
Too late, TDMVPDPOY. GDP was down 6.2 in the 4th qtr. The US savings rate recently reached a seven year high.
Cant wait what the aus reserve bank is going to announce sometime this week, maybe another 25 basis points interest rate cut......im still holding out till probably next year to see if the economy is still tankn and house prices continue to tank....
FHOG aka first home owners grant runs out end of this financial year in australia we had it for 2-3yrs now...wanna see the impact it will have on house prices when removed
Ah, monetarism. Australian reserve bank still has some string to play with.Cant wait what the aus reserve bank is going to announce sometime this week, maybe another 25 basis points interest rate cut
Those were the days.
Boy, we're a pessimistic bunch on this board! (Myself included.)
I did the same thing by starting up my government TSP. I can't imagine stocks can drop THAT much more... right?
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