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So let's narrow down the list. It's not hard, actually. Boston has a full roster, L.A. has little chance of meaningful playing time, and the Cavs would be off the list too once they added Smith.
That takes us to the league's second tier of contenders, which looks roughly like: San Antonio, Orlando, Houston, Utah and perhaps Denver.
Of those, we can safely eliminate Utah (which simply has no need for another power forward) and probably Houston too (it has several decent big men and is up against the luxury-tax line).
There's a good chance that money knocks out two other teams. Orlando is a possibility given its paucity of frontcourt reserves and Gooden's previous history there, but I'm not sure how seriously people take the Magic's chances of contending since Jameer Nelson went out. At any rate, the Magic have used their midlevel and biannual exceptions this summer so they can offer him only the veteran's minimum.
Denver offers similar pros and cons for Gooden. The Nuggets have a thin frontcourt where he'd almost certainly earn minutes, but are pinned against the tax line, making it unlikely they could offer more than the minimum.
Do the math and one destination emerges as the most likely: San Antonio. The Spurs can give him a piece of their midlevel exception (about $1.5 million through the end of the season), a realistic path to a conference finals appearance at the least, and a chance to earn big chunks of minutes (Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto have been found wanting all season).
The only problem, it seems, is saying it out loud: Drew Gooden on the Spurs? Really? The guy who's known for mental errors and has a medusa beard, signing on with the league's must buttoned-down, no-nonsense outfit?
But the logic on every other level is too strong to dismiss it. The Spurs have done this dance before, remember -- think of Cap'n Jack in 2003 -- and no matter what it will be only the second-most eyebrow-raising waiver pickup this winter (take a bow, Starbury).
And in this case, the Last Chance Saloon metaphor couldn't be more fitting. For a San Antonio team trying to squeeze one more le before what will likely be a wholesale restructuring around the Duncan-Parker nucleus in 2010, there's really not much choice -- they need to belly up to the bar and drink whatever's on tap, so to speak, because this is the only way to match up in the playoffs with the L.A.s and Utahs of the West.
Good catch. My mistake.
