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This is something I usually look up when forming an opinion on whether or not a player will be a good pick up and increase our changes of winning a le.
Pretty much the first thing I do when ever we get a new player is go look at their career splits VS LA to see if they are any kind of a Laker Killer since that is the team that has eliminated the Spurs 4 out of the 5 times they've been eliminated in the championship era. Usually these splits against LA are not impressive and if they are it's generally a good reason to be excited. Laker Killers are hard to come by, especially bigmen Laker Killers.
The way I figure it we've got about 5 teams we need to be worried about in addition to the Lakers. The Hornets(because of last year), Celtics, Cavs, Rockets and Nuggets also figure to give the Spurs a pretty good challenge should we meet them in the post season.
In the case of Drew Gooden the guy's talent is unquestionable, but talent isn't enough to make a contribution to the Spurs' ambitions.
So let's see what Drew's got to offer against our biggest challengers. Let's see if he's got x-factor potential against any of them.
First of all, here are his career averages in the 3 main categories of interest:
PPG: 12.1
FG%: 47%
RBG: 8.0
Now let's compare those numbers to the splits VS the 6 teams expected to be our toughest compe ion and see where they rank in comparison to his totals against other teams.
1. New Orleans
Games: 13
PPG: 11.9 18th
FG: 48.4% 11th
RBG: 9.7 2nd
His rebounding and FG% totals against the Hornets are better than his career averages and his PPG total is only .3 under his career average. All in all it looks pretty promising that he'll do well against the Hornets. Those are good numbers.
Rankwise he's a little under average offensively but that is offset by the fact that he rebounds extremely well against them. Since rebounding is the main reason he was signed it definitely appears he'll have something to contibute against the Hornets.
2. Denver
Games: 13
PPG: 12.7 13th
FG%: 42.6 24th
RBG: 8.7 8th
Again he puts up some nice rebounding totals that are over his career average. His PPG total is also over his career average but since it is accompanied by one of his worst shooting percentages against any team it's not that really that much of a plus.
Since he was mainly signed for his rebounding and it appears he does that well against the Nuggets, traditionally, he should be a positive against them.
3. Houston
Games: 13
PPG: 9.7 28th
FG%: 40.2 30th
RBG: 6.4 29th
Uhg. All 3 numbers are well below his career averages and his numbers rank dead last or close to it against them in the two most important categories. Based on those numbers I'd say he's not going to help a whole lot against the Rockets as they are pretty much the team he plays the worst against. Still, the Rockets have been good defensive team more or less over the course of Gooden's entire career up until this point so I'd hardly say those results are surprising or unusual among most bigmen in the NBA.
4. Cleveland
Games: 8
PPG: 10.6 25th
FG%: 41.6% 27th
RBG: 8.9 6th
That's a pretty small sample of games played against the Cavs but it doesn't look like he's shot the ball particularly well against them. Not surprising since the Cavs have been a great defensive team in recent years and probably half of those games have come against them since he was traded for Ben Wallace. His rebounding however is very nice and given that any matchup with the Cavs will likely be a defensive struggle in the NBA finals I'd say he definitely has something to offer against his old team. That's in addition to any inside knowledge he may have about them as a former Cavs player.
5. LA
Games: 13
PPG: 8.9 30th
FG%: 41.7 26th
RBG: 6.9 27th
Sigh. This is the main reason I wasn't that excited over the idea of Gooden signing with the Spurs. To be fair none of the other bigs on our roster have very good numbers against LA but it would have been nice to see some here. Compared to our other bigs he might have good numbers relatively speaking but there's still nothing here to indicate he's going to be a positive against LA. No x-factor here based on these numbers and he'll be doing good to play at an average level against them.
6. Boston
Games: 21
PPG: 11.1 23rd
FG%: 48.2 12th
RBG: 6.7 28th
Sort of a mixed bag here. His rebounding against the Celtics has been below average but his shooting PCT has been pretty decent. I'm also not sure how much stock to place in these numbers, inspite of the largest sample size, due to the fact that Boston was remade last year from just about the worst team in the NBA into the best. I do think his shooting PCT has some merit though as not a lot has changed defensively inside for the Celtics. Yes they are better with Garnett but Gooden is not the type of player Garnett does a real good job of shutting down, and Perkins has been defending the paint in Boston for a few yers now. Overall I'd say he's not going to be much of an x-factor against Boston.
Just for kicks let's see what he looks like against the Spurs to find out if we've been seeing him at his best, or as he typically plays.
Reason?
Well for example, Rasho's career best numbers were against the Spurs and that's part of the reason the Spurs went after him when he became a FA.
San Antonio
PPG: 12.9 7th
FG%: 46.1% 18th
RBG: 7.5 21st
We've seen him at close to his best in terms of scoring but probably a little below average as a rebounder. His numbers against SA are actually pretty impressive considering out of all the teams listed they are by far the best interior defensive team year in and year out, and have been for the entirety of Gooden's career. At the same time, he's looked a lot better from our perspective than he has from that of the Rockets, Lakers or Celts.
This analysis certainly isn't intended to be the last word. There are other factors in play here of course. The main factor being that up to this point in his career Gooden has almost always been a secondary scorer on offense and usually the main post scorer for his teams and thus the top priority in the paint for opposing defenses. Defenses won't be able to focus on Gooden to the degree they have in the past now that he's on the Spurs, especially in the paint. He's going to find this situation on the Spurs easier than any other in his career up this point as far as opposing defenses go.
Overall I'd say he's going to be a huge help against the Hornets, at least according to this analysis, and since they have almost as much to do with our defeat by LA last year as the Lakers themselves do I'd say that's a very important contribution.
In any series with the Lakers themselves though, Gooden doesn't appear to be the type of guy that will get us over the hump.
i
Damn, nice post
Good analysis.
+1
I read it again.
this will prove to be important if he can move well without the ball opposite duncan.Defenses won't be able to focus on Gooden to the degree they have in the past now that he's on the Spurs, especially in the paint. He's going to find this situation on the Spurs easier than any other in his career up this point as far as opposing defenses go.
I agree. that's where the cliche " he makes others around him better" comes into play referring in particular to Duncan. If he and Gooden hit it off well together, then I don't see why Gooden can't realize more of his potential and exceed his previous performances.
great post and research !
but, as you said, Gooden playing with the spurs could be a completely different thing that what he has done before. To play with Tim could really change how you play.
we'll see.
I agree. But lets also consider he was asked to do more with less around him(Chicago , Sacramento). Like I said in my previous post he will be most likely coming in with the second and will be able to put up bigger numbers. Let's face it whott although the lakers are very good, the one thing that can be said is they dont respond well to being punched in the mouth and we will be able to bang more with drew and put more pressure on them on the glass( something we got murdered in last year.). But we play them thursday so we can further assess him if he plays. Good post though.This is something I usually look up when forming an opinion on whether or not a player will be a good pick up and increase our changes of winning a le.
Pretty much the first thing I do when ever we get a new player is go look at their career splits VS LA to see if they are any kind of a Laker Killer since that is the team that has eliminated the Spurs 4 out of the 5 times they've been eliminated in the championship era. Usually these splits against LA are not impressive and if they are it's generally a good reason to be excited. Laker Killers are hard to come by, especially bigmen Laker Killers.
The way I figure it we've got about 5 teams we need to be worried about in addition to the Lakers. The Hornets(because of last year), Celtics, Cavs, Rockets and Nuggets also figure to give the Spurs a pretty good challenge should we meet them in the post season.
In the case of Drew Gooden the guy's talent is unquestionable, but talent isn't enough to make a contribution to the Spurs' ambitions.
So let's see what Drew's got to offer against our biggest challengers. Let's see if he's got x-factor potential against any of them.
First of all, here are his career averages in the 3 main categories of interest:
PPG: 12.1
FG%: 47%
RBG: 8.0
Now let's compare those numbers to the splits VS the 6 teams expected to be our toughest compe ion and see where they rank in comparison to his totals against other teams.
1. New Orleans
Games: 13
PPG: 11.9 18th
FG: 48.4% 11th
RBG: 9.7 2nd
His rebounding and FG% totals against the Hornets are better than his career averages and his PPG total is only .3 under his career average. All in all it looks pretty promising that he'll do well against the Hornets. Those are good numbers.
Rankwise he's a little under average offensively but that is offset by the fact that he rebounds extremely well against them. Since rebounding is the main reason he was signed it definitely appears he'll have something to contibute against the Hornets.
2. Denver
Games: 13
PPG: 12.7 13th
FG%: 42.6 24th
RBG: 8.7 8th
Again he puts up some nice rebounding totals that are over his career average. His PPG total is also over his career average but since it is accompanied by one of his worst shooting percentages against any team it's not that really that much of a plus.
Since he was mainly signed for his rebounding and it appears he does that well against the Nuggets, traditionally, he should be a positive against them.
3. Houston
Games: 13
PPG: 9.7 28th
FG%: 40.2 30th
RBG: 6.4 29th
Uhg. All 3 numbers are well below his career averages and his numbers rank dead last or close to it against them in the two most important categories. Based on those numbers I'd say he's not going to help a whole lot against the Rockets as they are pretty much the team he plays the worst against. Still, the Rockets have been good defensive team more or less over the course of Gooden's entire career up until this point so I'd hardly say those results are surprising or unusual among most bigmen in the NBA.
4. Cleveland
Games: 8
PPG: 10.6 25th
FG%: 41.6% 27th
RBG: 8.9 6th
That's a pretty small sample of games played against the Cavs but it doesn't look like he's shot the ball particularly well against them. Not surprising since the Cavs have been a great defensive team in recent years and probably half of those games have come against them since he was traded for Ben Wallace. His rebounding however is very nice and given that any matchup with the Cavs will likely be a defensive struggle in the NBA finals I'd say he definitely has something to offer against his old team. That's in addition to any inside knowledge he may have about them as a former Cavs player.
5. LA
Games: 13
PPG: 8.9 30th
FG%: 41.7 26th
RBG: 6.9 27th
Sigh. This is the main reason I wasn't that excited over the idea of Gooden signing with the Spurs. To be fair none of the other bigs on our roster have very good numbers against LA but it would have been nice to see some here. Compared to our other bigs he might have good numbers relatively speaking but there's still nothing here to indicate he's going to be a positive against LA. No x-factor here based on these numbers and he'll be doing good to play at an average level against them.
6. Boston
Games: 21
PPG: 11.1 23rd
FG%: 48.2 12th
RBG: 6.7 28th
Sort of a mixed bag here. His rebounding against the Celtics has been below average but his shooting PCT has been pretty decent. I'm also not sure how much stock to place in these numbers, inspite of the largest sample size, due to the fact that Boston was remade last year from just about the worst team in the NBA into the best. I do think his shooting PCT has some merit though as not a lot has changed defensively inside for the Celtics. Yes they are better with Garnett but Gooden is not the type of player Garnett does a real good job of shutting down, and Perkins has been defending the paint in Boston for a few yers now. Overall I'd say he's not going to be much of an x-factor against Boston.
Just for kicks let's see what he looks like against the Spurs to find out if we've been seeing him at his best, or as he typically plays.
Reason?
Well for example, Rasho's career best numbers were against the Spurs and that's part of the reason the Spurs went after him when he became a FA.
San Antonio
PPG: 12.9 7th
FG%: 46.1% 18th
RBG: 7.5 21st
We've seen him at close to his best in terms of scoring but probably a little below average as a rebounder. His numbers against SA are actually pretty impressive considering out of all the teams listed they are by far the best interior defensive team year in and year out, and have been for the entirety of Gooden's career. At the same time, he's looked a lot better from our perspective than he has from that of the Rockets, Lakers or Celts.
This analysis certainly isn't intended to be the last word. There are other factors in play here of course. The main factor being that up to this point in his career Gooden has almost always been a secondary scorer on offense and usually the main post scorer for his teams and thus the top priority in the paint for opposing defenses. Defenses won't be able to focus on Gooden to the degree they have in the past now that he's on the Spurs, especially in the paint. He's going to find this situation on the Spurs easier than any other in his career up this point as far as opposing defenses go.
Overall I'd say he's going to be a huge help against the Hornets, at least according to this analysis, and since they have almost as much to do with our defeat by LA last year as the Lakers themselves do I'd say that's a very important contribution.
In any series with the Lakers themselves though, Gooden doesn't appear to be the type of guy that will get us over the hump.
nice read
Nice analysis. Good morning read.
I do believe if Gooden and Timmy work well together, he might exceed our expectations. I mean playing along side Timmy is a great chance for Gooden to show us what he's got.
Gooden is another banger, which we desperately need...if he stays healthy and doesn't make too many boneheaded mistakes, he will be a valuable asset in the playoffs.
2009...odd year...do the math...GO SPURS GO!!!!!
Utah Jazz ?
Besides the Lakers, when healthy it's the most dangerous team in the West.
The consensus on Gooden seems to be that he has underacheved so far in his career. He never experienced a breakout year. Its hard to develop consistency in one's game when a player has to constantly learn a new system. Maybe SA could be the stable home that he's been searching for and he thrives with the Spurs.
Great post....
don't forget LA wanted this guy too... I think it was a good move just to keep him away from LA, even if he doesn't put good numbers against them.
Hey he faced different teams.
It's not like NO is the same team as it was 4 years ago, same with other teams.
And Gooden played a different role in a different teams and systems.
I'm not sure what he normally averages against the Jazz, but he played well against us earlier this year. Only twenty points or so, but I remember getting pissed off that game because Gooden was playing efficiently.
That said, Millsap and Okur had huge games that night too, but I don't think you guys necessarily brought Gooden in for his defensive prowess.
Last edited by balli; 03-07-2009 at 11:04 AM.
This is the kind of thread I am talking about!
Utah's interior defense is porous. They're also pretty far down the list for FG% defense. They are a good basketball team but not a great one, as evidenced by Boozer making Oberto look like a ing All Star center in '07. I think the only top half team that would be in danger to them in the first round would be Denver. They might take one or at most two games from anyone else.
Thanks for putting that together. The first reaction is that while his #s haven't been that great against certain teams, what are the averages for the mighty Bonner/Oberto tandem?
7 boards a night against LA would be quite welcome.
Second reaction, of course, is that Gooden hasn't played with a post player like TD on offense in his NBA career.
This is true.
But we're a better team than Denver. I don't know if you saw us carve them to pieces last night, but yeah, outside of LA and SA, when healthy, we're the best team in the West. Porous defense be damned.I think the only top half team that would be in danger to them in the first round would be Denver. They might take one or at most two games from anyone else.
This may be true with Gasol, and others. I don't think this is applicable with Kobe. He plays better when he's pissed off, unfortunately.
Thanks for the great read whottt.
My main concerns for Gooden are like most here, rebounding and what his defense is going to look like. Numbers never tell the whole story, but there seems to be a foundation to build on.
Appreciate the effort to put it together for us.
I honestly believe that playing in the Spurs system and with Tim Duncan, that Drew Gooden's defense will improve dramatically. I don't think he's anywhere close to his ceiling.
Adding Gooden gives the Spurs much more front court depth to throw at the Lakers.
The Lakers frontcourt although good I think is often over hyped. Has Bynum ever been in the POs? Odom has been known to fold like a lawn chair in big games and Gasol has been Timmy's before.
This was probably the best move the Spurs could make outside of adding Camby.
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