My guess is that Pop runs Drew with the reserves for the most part. That gives you one paint scorer and one shooter big man for both the starting unit and the reserves, Duncan/Bonner and Gooden/Thomas. That also makes our reserve bigs probably one of the best bench rebounding tandems in the league. We've been lacking any kind of post scoring off the bench for forever, and playing against reserves for a chunk of the game should boost Drew's effectiveness. He'll be sort of the big man's version of Manu's bench burst.
Good work, but aren't those samples too large? Teams change a lot.
Anyway, Gooden had an awesome game for Cle vs. Boston last season. Probably one of the best games of his career, he completely abused us. It was the first of the season, they won in the OT.
+1
good point
Right, plus it's a lesser disruption in the rotation instead of changing the starting lineup.
And while I don't necessarily think Bonner's feelings would be hurt, but he seems quite comfortable in his role. Of course, if he starts to decline and/or Gooden comes in and tears it up then a change may be warranted.
I appreciate the time you took, but those aren't the same rosters that he faced every time, so it doesn't really make a difference..
A rebounding stat: Gooden averages 14.2 rebounds per 40 minutes this season.
Bonner averages 9.8 rebounds per 40. That's a difference of 4.4 rebounds per 40 minutes between the two players.
To put that in perspective, the distance between Gooden and Bonner is larger than the distance between Bonner and TJ Ford or Mike Conley, both of whom play point guard and average 5.6 rebounds per 40 minutes.
The simple fact is that Gooden is a very good rebounder. And even if his numbers go down 10% or even 20% against a good team, he is still better at rebounding the ball than anyone on the Spurs not named Tim Duncan.
Those numbers vs San Antonio are pretty good, considering he went against the great Tim Duncan !!!!!
It's not a bad proxy. I guess if you could sort out the last couple of seasons it would make it slightly better, though your MOE would increase.
In two games versus Houston this year, these are the average rebounds per game for San Antonio's bigs:
Duncan: 7 rpg
Bonner: 3.5 rpg
Thomas: 3.5 rpg
Oberto: 2.5 rpg
Gooden hasn't played against Houston this year, but in his two games against them last year, he averaged 7.5 rpg.
I'm glad you appreciate the time I took, I just wish you understood the purpose of the analysis.
It I'd wanted to see how he had done against a specific roster, I'd just have analyzed the splits for those years against those teams.
If I'd wanted to see how he's done against the teams as they are currently constructed I'd have analyzed his splits against those teams over the course of them having their current rosters.
That wasn't what I was trying to do.
The purpose of this analysis was to see if there's any of these teams he seems to get up for and play well against in certain aspects...because of the team itself, not it's roster. IOW, I wanted to see if he was a slayer of any of these teams, just because of the logo on their jersey. And I can only do that by analyzing his career splits against them.
Additionally, you are right that these rosters have changed but if you are high on Gooden and attempting to use your statement to his benefit...you did just the opposite.
You see you're right that these teams have rosters that change every year, but beyond all doubt they are all very good teams now, which is why I chose them. And what the fact that they are all good now means is that at the individual level Gooden's numbers are less likely to be as good as against them now, in every case. Yes he plays for a better team now, yes he is also isn't going to get the minutes or the shots that he has in the past because of it.
And finally...these teams have been pretty much the same for most of Gooden's career. Most of them have had the same coaches, schemes and central stars for just about all of his career...so even your initial criticism isn't really that accurate and is somewhat of an oversimplification.
So you see...your analysis of my analysis doesn't really make a difference.
Concerning Duncan and his ability to improve Gooden's game...
#1. It's not just Duncan, there's also Parker and Manu. Gooden has never played on a team that has both dominant perimter and interior scorers...so Duncan isn't the only reason he stands to have a significantly easier time of things when it comes to opposing defenses. I mean I guess you could say Cleveland was pretty balanced but really they were LeBron and no on else and Gooden was probably the second best player on that team.
Without a doubt this is the best team he's ever played for and he isn't going to receive near as much defensive focus as he has in the past.
The flipside of that is that IMO, he's also not going to get the minutes, shots, or loose balls that he has in the past either. I'm in the minority on this but I don't think playing alongside Tim Duncan has ever improved anyone's defensive rebounding numbers significantly...and that's a tribute to Duncan, he doesn't miss many gettable balls.
In any case...what I get out of this is that our fate against LA is still likely to rest more in the hands of Matt Bonner than Drew Gooden.
LA packs the paint against us and forces TO's when we aren't hitting ourside shots...I don't see Gooden helping in that aspect at all, if anything he's going to clog the area around Duncan even more based on his poor shooting against them.
Bonner OTOH, if he can stroke some shots against them not only will make it tougher for them to double team, he will pull a BIG BODY out of the paint and increase our chances of getting offensive rebounds as well as penetrating their defense without turning it over.
I'm not worried about Gooden's subpar numbers against Houston...because Bonner matches up very well against them..
But the point of all this is that I definitely don't see Gooden as having much impact on our team against the Lakers even if he does play well. It's still going to be Matt Bonner that pretty much makes or breaks that series as far as bigmen role players go...and Matt Bonner hasn't proven that he has the ability to do that against them.
Since LA is our kryptonite as far as les are concerned...it's relevant, and this Gooden move doesn't appear to have increased our odds of beating them.
Last edited by whottt; 03-07-2009 at 03:51 PM.
Whott the f*ck is going on in here?
LA's had a pretty porous defense since they blew the team up 5 years ago, so hit FG PCT vs them in a bit of a letdown. I can't see the use of playing him with Duncan; Bonner fits in much better with Duncan in the game. I think Bonner would be lost without the wide-open looks Tim gets him. I think Gooden's best use would be playing with the second unit, taking shots from Kurt and Fab as opposed to competing with Tim for shots.
i think these numbers should only include the past two years. because that's when boston acquired garnett and allen. it's also when lakers got gasol and bynum started to play well. and of course, cavs acquisition of ben wallace and other guards. these numbers may be better or worse depending on previous matchups.
against the lakers in the playoffs, i think thomas will inevitably start if he keeps playing at his current defensive level. unless gooden plays defense as well as thomas, he will be put in when only gasol or bynum is on the floor. to compensate for bonner's offense and probably bowen's move to the starting position again, ginobili will also have to start. that gives spurs a bench (in order of likely subs) of mason/finley/gooden/bonner. oberto and hill will probably see limited minutes at best.
Instead of a large sample size, it may be best to see how he fared against the teams for 2008 only - that would give you a better idea as the rosters changed significantly for several of the teams.
Great read though!
Well like I said, I wasn't really trying to figure out individual matchups with the current rosters. I was primarily trying to see if the name on the front of the jersey brought out anything extra in him...I mean there are people that will have more motivation because of the name on the jersey and people that wil butt clench over it. Our shooters have a history of buttclenching when open the second they see a purple and gold jersey in front of them and Jack Nicholson sitting on the sidelines.
I could look up the splits over the past 2 years against LA and Boston, but since those two teams are much better as of the last two years and his numbers aren't particularly impressive against them from a career standpoint, and the fact that he has played for a struggling Bulls team over much of the past 2 years and was arguably it's best interior threat and focus for opposing defenses...I probably wouldn't like what I would find.
Like I said...he'll have an easier time of it, but there is nothing in his career performance to indicate he has additional motivation when facing elite/legendary teams like some players do, in all sports. I mean there is something extra at play when you see the name Yankees or Cowboys, or Lakers or Celtics on the front of the jersey for some players...some players play better because of that and some play worse. It's nost just some hair brained theory either...you look at the Spurs shooters over the past 9 years and they have been left open against LA probably more than any other team and yet they have shot worse...and it's got everything to do with the name on the front of the jersey...and Jack sitting on the sideline.
What this was was an analysis of statistical data to determine potential intangible factors with Gooden in our matchup with these teams(really the Lakers)....not a straight statistical analysis. It's easy enough to do a straight statistical analysis with a couple of clicks and I wouldn't have thought that worth the effort as most people on the forum can and do do that themselves.
Last edited by whottt; 03-07-2009 at 06:21 PM.
@ whottt's explanation about player who plays better or worse against logos
Anyone can click on the splits and see how he did against them last year or 2 years ago...that doesn't require a post.
BTW, if I ever want to use basketball stats to determine which players are on steroids...you'll be the first guy I call.
Whotts making a good point, I'm not sure what's so funny about it. I remember a discussion about the Milwaukee Bucks having a winning record against San Antonio. For whatever reason, the Bucks seem to play better against the Spurs, and San Antonio's players worse against the Bucks'. Maybe it's their style of play, or the way they play defense. But the certain way they do things gives the Spurs trouble. That's pretty much what he was trying to get across. No need to be a .
As far as I know players play against players not against logos.
Whottt is making a point, but IMO (if I can have one), that's a bad point to look at a player. Esp. when you look at his stats.
For some reason I do not buy his numbers againts logos.
Why?
Because, example - championship Lakers with Shaq, Kobe, Jax etc. are in the same column with LA team with Kobe and Tomjanovich.
And that's just made me laugh.
btw. no need to jump all over me because of it.
You've got my cell phone number?
Damn, great post and very good thread. whottt pulled the internet version of a David Robinson tomahawk slam
I'm going to do some digging now to see if I can add to this thread
You are directly contradicting yourself in these two different posts. On the one hand, you say you're checking out the stats to see if he has a history of performing well against a certain team. But, on the other hand, you give the opinion that even if he does play well against the Lakers, it won't matter... It seems like you just don't like Gooden, and have tried to find a way to justify your dislike of him. If your opinion is that he isn't going to help against the Lakers, regardless of whether his play is good or bad (which by itself doesn't add up at all), what's the point of even looking at the stats?
I don't like Gooden but I wouldn't have gone to all this trouble just to say I don't like him...I already said that several times.
But believe me...I dislike losing to LA more than anything else that can happen on a NBA court...and so I'm not going to let my personal dislike of a player get in the way of that.
My opinion is pretty consistent...I don't think he's going to be much of a factor against LA directly, even if he does play well, and so I'd have rather us have gone after someone who would...
That said, part of the reason we lost to LA was that the Hornets beat the crap out of us and we had nothing left for LA...and Gooden has a history of player extremely well against the Hornets...so he could help in that area.
And yes I really don't think he can be the difference directly against LA...LA is all about our 3 shooting, and since Gooden doesn't do that and Bonner does, I think Bonner can be more of a difference maker in that series than Gooden.
If he hits his threes LA's won't be able to clog the paint on us, more importantly, he can pull one of their bigs out to the perimeter totally putting a in their defensive armor...it's really just that simple.
Nice work on the original post, whott. Much appreciated.
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