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Though Drew Gooden has always had good stats, I want to see how his presence on the court actually affects his team's play. To do so, I'm going to look at offense and defense per 100 possessions, effective fg% allowed and rebounding. Each of these stats compare how the team plays with him on the court to how they play with him off the court.
Those are the numbers over the last four years. The numbers or somewhat consistent ... and not in a good way. He tends to hurt his team's offense while also hurting his team's defense. Rebounding-wise, he hasn't made his team very much better ... even though his individual stats are impressive.Code:2009 Offense: per 100 Poss. 104.2 109.5 -5.3 Defense: per 100 Poss. 109.2 109.6 -0.4 Effective FG% Allowed 48.80% 48.80% 0.00% Total Rebounding 49.70% 49.80% -0.10% 2008 Offense: per 100 Poss. 106.9 107.4 -0.5 Defense: per 100 Poss. 108.4 106.9 1.5 Effective FG% Allowed 50.90% 48.40% 2.50% Total Rebounding 52.80% 52.70% 0.00% 2007 Offense: per 100 Poss. 106 107.6 -1.5 Defense: per 100 Poss. 105.6 99.2 6.4 Effective FG% Allowed 49.30% 46.30% 2.90% Total Rebounding 52.00% 52.80% -0.70% 2006 Offense: per 100 Poss. 107.5 110.9 -3.5 Defense: per 100 Poss. 107.1 106.3 0.7 Effective FG% Allowed 49.50% 48.60% 0.90% Total Rebounding 52.30% 50.50% 1.70%
Here are the same numbers for the 2007 playoffs:
Again, pretty much right in line.Code:2007 Offense: Pts per 100 Poss. 104 104 0.1 Defense: Pts per 100 Poss. 102.9 96.8 6 Effective FG% Allowed 46.80% 45.60% 1.20% Total Rebounding 52.00% 53.30% -1.30%
However, it should be mentioned that the Cavs have had some quality players to back him up with. Varejao has been his main backup and he's one of the best backup bigs in the league. So while it's concerning that he consistently hasn't made his teams better on either side of the ball or rebounding-wise, you have to put it in the right context.
Next I'm going to look at his shooting percentage on outside jumpers and the percentage of his shots that are jumpers:
The number of jumpers he's taken has increased through the years and his shooting has been somewhat steady other than last year.Code:2009 Jump 66% 0.412 2008 Jump 58% 0.35 2007 Jump 58% 0.408 2006 Jump 44% 0.421
Let's look at how he compares to TD, Thomas and Oberto to get an idea if Gooden is similar:
Shooting-wise, Gooden fits in somewhere between Thomas and Oberto. He's a better shooter than Oberto but not at Thomas' level. The fact that the percentage of his shots that are jumpers is similar to Thomas is a good sign that Duncan and Gooden could play well together due to the spacing.Code:Duncan Jump 58% 0.437 Thomas Jump 72% 0.458 Oberto Jump 43% 0.389
The last stat I want to look at is Gooden's clutch shooting percentage from the perimeter. Can he spread the floor enough to be on the court during the clutch?
Wow. It's safe to say Gooden should be kept as far away from the court as possible come clutch time. Five jumpers in the last four years? On 34 attempts? For a guy who otherwise shoots better than 40% on jumpers? Holy crap.Code:2009 2-for-7 28.6% 2008 1-for-8 12.5% 2007 1-for-12 8.3% 2006 1-for-7 14.3%
Conclusion
I was hoping to be surprised but the numbers tell me Gooden is exactly the type of player I thought he was. He's a player who can get stats but he doesn't make a huge impact on winning or losing and is utterly useless in the clutch.
That said, I like the idea of using him like Nazr Mohammed. Eventually move him into the starting lineup. Let him bang against the other team's best interior scorer. Let his scoring and rebound lighten the load on the Big Three. Hope he has a few minutes here and there where he shines. Sit him on the bench when it gets tight at the end of the fourth.
If properly used by Pop and if Gooden is extra motivated and attentive (for whatever motives), he can help. Let's just hope that Gooden can have a Nazr-in-2005 type run and that Pop both gives him a chance and knows what he's doing with him.
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Hope he can just board, dunk, draw fouls, and never be on the floor in clutch situations.
