I think it's informative to look at the Duncan era (98-99 season to now). If I'm counting right (please correct if not):
Head-to-head in playoffs: Lakers lead in series wins, 4-2. Three of their wins were in the Shaq era.
(Lakers won in 01, 02, 04, and 08. Spurs won in 99 and 03.)
Championships: Spurs lead 4-3. All 3 of the Laker championships were in the Shaq era.
(Lakers won in 00, 01, 02. Spurs won in 99, 03, 05, 07.)
To put it another way:
Duncan Spurs vs. Shaq/Kobe Lakers:
head-to-head playoffs: Lakers 3, Spurs 2.
Championships: Lakers 3, Spurs 2.
Duncan Spurs vs. Kobe/no Shaq Lakers:
head-to-head playoffs: Lakers 1, Spurs 0.
Championships: Spurs 2, Lakers 0.

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