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I'm pretty sure the Spurs have one of the best records since the All-Star break. I think you're just looking too much into it. Manu and Tim have been out, and they get to the line a lot.
[Note: for those who don't like to read long posts, I will summarize. Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have averaged 17.3 Free Throw Attempts Per Game. I'm pretty sure that is the lowest of any team in the last 20 years, if not longer. With such a historical discrepancy, it's amazing that they still have one of the league's best records.]
I was looking at the Spurs' stats earlier, and noticed that they are dead last in Free Throw Attempts Per Game. (That's a little hard to believe, given that there are some really piss-poor teams in the league.) But then I realized that their average of 19.8 FTA/G is the lowest that I can ever remember seeing. To give you some idea of how bad that is, the Toronto Raptors are averaging 22.8 FTA/G this season. The Spurs are shooting about 75% from the FT line, so that means that the are giving up 2.25 points per game, right off the top, to the worst teams in the league.
But then I noticed that, since the All-Star break, the Spurs have been getting only 17.3 FTA/G. That's so damned low, I had to check some other sources, to be sure it wasn't a mistake. It isn't a mistake. It may be the lowest FTA average in the shot-clock era. I've only been able to look back as far as the 2001-2002 season so far, but it is the lowest total I've found. Think about all the dreadfully awful lottery teams in the last 8 years... none of them went to the line as infrequently as this Spurs team.
Let me try to put it into perspective: since the All-Star Break, the Spurs have been giving up 6 points per game to the Wizards, Clippers, and Kings - on the basis of FTA alone. Those 3 teams have a combined winning percentage of under .300, and they are absolutely ing terrible. And they have gone to the line over 8 times per game more than the Spurs. With the Spurs FT% of about .750, they are giving up 6 PPG to the three worst teams in the league.
If you look at stats very much, particularly point differential (Points For minus Points Against), you know that is a ridiculously big margin. The Spurs have a point differential of +3.97 PPG, which is 5th best in the league. But they are playing at a disadvantage of 2-8 PPG, against every other team in the league! I admit that the other teams get fewer FTA when playing against the Spurs, so the numbers are a little misleading. But when you are looking at season averages, it still means that the Spurs are having to work a of a lot harder to put points on the board.
The main point (as I said above) is that the Spurs' FTA/G since the break are the lowest that any team has had in the last 8 years. And a cursory check suggests that it is the lowest in the last 20 years, at least. That includes teams like OKC, whose starting 5 have a total of 8 years prior NBA experience. That includes the 04-05 Atlanta Hawks, who went 13-69. , the 88-89 Miami Heat (whose best two players were Kevin Edwards and Rory Sparrow, and went 15-67) went to the line about 8 times per game more than the Spurs have since the All-Star break.
I know that Manu has been out, and Tim has been less than 100%. But isn't it a little bit hard to believe that this year's Spurs are the worst team in the last 20 years in getting to the line? Keep in mind that during that time, Tony Parker has been taking it to the rack an an incredible pace. Either this is a .500 team that is seriously over-achieving, or the officiating is totally broken.
I guess I don't need to tell you which answer I pick.
.
I'm pretty sure the Spurs have one of the best records since the All-Star break. I think you're just looking too much into it. Manu and Tim have been out, and they get to the line a lot.
Did you read the whole post? The lowest FTA/Game in modern history? Lower than the worst lottery teams of the last 20 years? Are all the other players on the team, other than Tim and Manu, really the worst scrubs of the last couple of decades?
I don't think most people will agree with you.
[Edit: Before you answer, look at the 88-89 Heat team. They got 8 more FTA/game than this Spur team? Eight attempts per game... +6 PPG difference? http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/1989.html
These Spurs aren't built to get to the line. The only players who get to the line at all are the Big Three and George Hill. With Manu out, Duncan slowed and Hill no longer playing point guard, that leaves just Parker.
Earlier in the season, Bonner was on pace to shoot less free throw attempts per minute than anyone in NBA history. Players like Mason, Finley, Thomas, Udoka and Bowen all hardly get to the line. Add in a slower than usual pace and the fact that the team relies so heavily on three-point shooting ... and it's not too surprising.
The lack of free throw attempts was a problem last season and with Bonner and Mason added to the rotation, the problem was bound to get worse.
Slower than usual pace and depending a lot more on 3P shooting? We're putting up 79.7 FGA per game, and 19.9 3P attempts. The last time we won a championship? We put up 77.2 FGA per game, and 19.0 3P attempts. Slower pace in the championship year, and almost as many field goal attempts. But that team went to the line about 6 times per game more than this one.
I know this team isn't built to get to the line. But are they really the worst team in the last 20 years, in that department? Damn.
One less than obvious advantage of adding Gooden is that he's also an 86% FT shooter. Once he gets up to speed, he should be able to get to the line quite a bit.
Free throw shooting percentage doesn't do any good if the refs don't blow their whistles. Look at the Nets since the All-Star break:
Nets FGA - 79.4 Spurs FGA - 79.9
Nets FG% - 46.2 Spurs FG% - 46.3
Nets 3PA - 23.1 Spurs 3PA - 18.8
Nets 3P% - 38.0 Spurs 3P% - 39.9
Nets RBs - 7.7/27.8 Spurs RBs - 8.8/34.1
Nets TO - 12.1 Spurs TO - 10.9
So why are the Nets putting up more points than the Spurs? It has a lot to do with 6.3 more FTA per game.
The Spurs numbers aren't just low... they are lower than anybody in the last 20 years... by a good margin. It's not their FT shooting percentage, it's the fact that the aren't getting the calls. TP should have gotten enough additional attempts during this stretch to keep their total attempts higher than 17 per game.
It probably doesn't help that TP falls to the ground every damn time he drives.
GSH,
A couple of things:
- You need to compensate for the game's pace. The number of opportunities per game to go to the charity line diminishes if you use less possessions per game, and the Spurs are a slow pace team.
- The top 2 players getting to the FT line have been Manu and Tim for quite some time now. The former is not playing, the latter has knee problems that may hamper his mobility and aggressiveness. It is no surprising that the Spurs do not go to the line that often.
Cheers,
-R
This was why the Spurs chased after Corey Maggette during the off-season.
Spurs currently rank 29th in the NBA for points in the paint at 33.9; which is down from last years average of 35.2 but at the same rank of 29th. Spurs therefore currently scoring 34.9% of their points in the paint, versus 42.5% as recently as January. Maybe contributing to low FTA/game. Detroit, Dallas, and New Orleans also clustered at the bottom in both categories.
Points in the Paint
FTA
Also, the Spurs apparently ranked dead last in FTA last season as well.
Last edited by senorglory; 03-19-2009 at 01:25 AM. Reason: typo
Another nice post from GSH, by the way.
... and I'm over a hundred.
That seems so far away.
I see this as a weakness for our current roster honestly. We are too dependent on the 3ball. If our outside shooters are hot, we are good. otherwise, we only really have tony and manu that can slash. Hill needs to learn because his aggressiveness in getting to the rim has diminished.
Low pace team who is relying on open treys, nothing surprising here.
As timvp stated, we have tony and manu who get some form slashing and tim from working the low post. On top of that, usually opponents try not to foul manu and tony to avoid and 1s.
But the point is, teams that are under 30 wins a season REALLY had players who should get to the line more than Duncan and Parker? Even WITH Manu out, the Spurs should not be seeing the lowest # of FT attempts in the past TWENTY YEARS. Consider that for a second. It's insane.
Of course, the fact that Duncan gets hacked on every single possession with rarely a beneficial call probably has a lot to do with this.
the only interesting stat is free throws attempted against free throws allowed per game.
and guess what, it's 19.8 against 19.8, and we shoot these FT at exactly the same % than our opponent against us (77 %).
Which means we're not winning nor giving up a SINGLE ONE POINT in the FT area compared to our opponents.
though, it would be interesting to look at this stat in the matchup against the TOP teams to see if we have a disadvantage here.
Last edited by kace; 03-19-2009 at 03:58 AM.
I was about to say that.
People tend to forget only direct confrontation matters.
I don't see the problem if Devin Harris average 9.3 FTA/game
Against the Spurs he only had 12 in 2 games... guess what, in these two games Parker also had 12 FTA.
now the interesting part would be to know why there are so few FT in the spurs game (19.8 +19.8 = 39.6, which should be by a wide margin the lowest FT total per game).
Pace is an obvious part of the equation but there should be others explanations.
well, let's look at these FTattempted against FT allowed against the TOP teams.
i choose boston, cleveland, orlando, LA, houston, utah, NOH and denver.
in 20 games we have a deficit of ten total FT attempted against these team which is 0.5 less FT attempted per game against them. not huge.
but if we look at it, Denver has a huge advanatge against us in FTA. without denver, in 17 games played against the 7 others top teams i choose, we're having 21 more FTA than our opponent, which is 1.24 more FTA per game.
so, we're really not so bad in the FTA area, even against the TOP teams this year, Denver being the exception.
Team by team, difference between FT attempted per game against FT allowed per game, if i didn't do any mistake (i looked at it quickly, don't hesitate to verify these numbers):
Boston: +10 (1 game)
Cleveland: +1.5 (2 games)
Orlando: -1 (2 games)
LA: -1.7 (3 games)
Houston: +1.75 (4 games)
Utah: +3 (2 games)
NOH: + 0.7 (3 games)
Denver: -10.3 (3 games)
If you assume that the other teams in the league play defense as well as we do, then there is some merit to that. (But not much.) Otherwise, it's completely ing ridiculous. One thing you're not considering is that since the break, our defense has improved. But our opponents FT attempts have risen significantly, while our FT attempts have dropped significantly.
It's late, but I'll post some more direct numbers later. For now, consider a couple of things:
1. If the Spurs have so few free throw attempts because of pace, then shouldn't their assists and rebounds reflect the same thing? If you pace-adjust those numbers, the Spurs are off the charts.
2. Since the break, the Spurs' 3-point attempts have dropped significantly. They have been taking about the same number of 3's they took in their last championship season. They haven't been "living by the 3" nearly as much as they did early in the season. You may not have noticed the shift, but the numbers don't lie.
3. The Spurs have also been taking a much bigger percentage of their 2-point attempts in the paint than you might guess. I'll try and pull some exact numbers - but you might want to have a look at some of the game play-by-plays and notice how many of their shots (made and missed) are in the paint. All I'm saying is that they aren't drawing enough whistles on those plays.
4. The Spurs' 2-point FG% has been much higher than the Lakers', Celtics', Cavs', or Magic's. If you still believe that they are taking more than their share of jump shots, then you have to conclude that they are the best-shooting team in the league. You can't have it both ways. If they are shooting a much higher percentage, from much farther away, they are better shooters. Does it feel like they are the best-shooting team in the league? I'm telling you, they are taking a lot more shots near the rim than you think. Especially since the break.
I don't see your problem with that.
It is not that simple, but an improved defense probably means that you are playing more physical. So it is not really surprising that our opponents FT attempts have risen.
We also have only 3 players shooting at least 4 FT/game. One is out.
No surprise to see a drop in our FTA.
And from your original post:
I have to disagree with that.But when you are looking at season averages, it still means that the Spurs are having to work a of a lot harder to put points on the board.
In the top 10 in FTA/game, you have Kevin Martin, Wade, Maggette, Bosh, Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony. A list of players who have missed a number of games through their career because of injuries.
I can't believe it is a coincidence. IMO, you have to work hard to shoot a lot of FT.
You invalidate any argument you have with this.
Kevin Martin shoots more FTA than Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.
Consider that for just a second.
So what?
I never said it is a good or bad thing to shoot a lot of FT.
All I say is that you need to work hard to obtain FT...
I wonder what argument you are talking about.
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