I know that everyone says that being healthy is more important than seeding/HCA in the playoffs. But even healthy, seeding and Home Court are still big factors in a successful championship drive.
First of all, seeding could be about much more than first- and second-round matchups. If two teams finish tied for season record, the tie-break rules determine which is seeded higher. But... if those two teams eventually meet each other in the playoffs, the tie-breaker/seed also determines which team has home court for the series. So, for instance, if the Spurs and Rockets wind up tied, but the Spurs win the tie-breaker, they would have home court advantage against the Rockets if they met in the second round or WCF. The first round match-up is a crap shoot. But that eventual HCA could be huge.
If the Spurs wind up tied with Houston or New Orleans (or both), the first tiebreaker would be head-to-head records. The Spurs finished 2-2 with the Rockets, so the second tie-breaker would be used with them. But the Spurs are currently 1-1 with New Orleans, with 2 games left to play. If the Spurs win the next game against N.O., they can do no worse than a tie in that head-to-head tiebreaker - so the second tiebreaker would be used there also.
The second tie-breaker compares each team's winning percentage within their own division (if the teams are from the same division). Currently, the Spurs are 9-5, the Rockets 8-6, and the Hornets 7-4. The Spurs and Rockets have 2 more division games, while the Hornets have 5 more division games. Obviously, winning both games against N.O. would give the Spurs the second tie-breaker win against both teams. But getting at least a split against the Hornets is critical.
If the Spurs win this next game with N.O. the conference standings would be: Spurs 10-5, Rockets 8-6, and Hornets 7-5. That would give the Spurs at least a tie with Houston in the second tie-breaker. And the only way New Orleans could win the second tie-breaker would be by beating Dallas at home, plus beating Dallas, Houston, and the Spurs on the road.
Bottom line... if the Spurs win the next game against New Orleans (assuming a win tonight against the Clippers) they could probably finish 5-4 in their remaining games, and still win the Southwest Division, and the #2 seed in the playoffs. (Possibly #3, if Denver finishes extremely strong.)
Last edited by GSH; 03-27-2009 at 10:46 PM.
I'm confident we'll keep the 2nd place...
But even if we don't, I know we can beat NO, Denver or Houston ...
The only thing we have to worry about is beng HEALTY!!
About the next game against NO, I can wait to see Tony vs CP!
I realy hope Tony doen't "disapoint", because this could be a "statement game" for him and the way he is respected by the league and the media!
If his jumper could be on ...
While I think winning as many games as possible, and winning the Division is commendable, especially after the many injuries we had to deal with, this game is far from being 'key to the post-season'. It's just another regular season game.
Thanks for working it all out. I thought it seemed likely we would end up with the tie-breakers for most situations (except Denver obviously), but I never went to the trouble of figuring it all out myself.
Even if we don't have to have homecourt advantage, it sure would be nice. It could lead to us winning a series sooner (remember how the Hornets series last year went back-and-forth with the home team winning until game 7?), which in turn could lead to more rest and fewer injuries. If we don't have to scrap and claw as much in one series we'll be fresher in the next.
I think I'll end up wishing until the end of time that the NBA would mandate a minimum 2 days off between series; it almost seems they prefer to have the discretion to declare when the next series starts in order to potentially influence the next series (like last year between the Hornets series and the Lakers series, or a couple of years prior between the Kings and Mavs series). Maybe they aren't really trying to do that, but it would be nice if they'd avoid even the appearance of impropriety by allowing all teams a couple of days to recover.
Tyson Chandler's out at least another week with an ankle, as per Spurs halftime announcer, and they're losing to the Knicks.
The Hornets game will be a practice session for the Spurs lol
New Orleans lost to the Knicks tonight..WOOHOO!
Nawlins blows this year. No Chandler=No Win.
The Hornets were having a fluke season last year, I expect Chris Paul to ask for a trade in a few years.
To me, what separates the Hornets from the elite isn't talent, it's the reaction to adversity. EVERYTHING broke for them last year, as far as catching the league somewhat by surprise, and having minimal injuries. This year, they ing crumpled and started sniping and backbiting when things didn't go their way. In a word: immaturity.
BTW, I ing HATE Chris Paul, and if there were one player that I could pick to have his team disintegrate around him, it would be CP3. Bonus!!
chadler will be out
stoja will probably be out again
wow we do own the hornets
Sean Marks vs Duncan
game over spurs by 8
If the Spurs will play true to form and not underestimate the decimated Hornets, It would be a sure win
Maybe I should have gone farther with the original post, but I thought it was kind of obvious. If the Spurs win this next game with New Orleans, they will have some breathing room. Pop could afford to rest Tim a little more, and try out some different rotations. And rest Tim some more. Firming up that second tie-breaker would be a real luxury. And he could rest Tim more.
Think what you want, but I think a tough, grind-it-out, 7-game series in the second round wouldn't be the best thing for this team right before going up against the Lakers. And the best chance of avoiding that is to have HCA through the first 2 rounds. But there is still a big difference between securing the #2 seed early vs. doing it on the last day of the season. Because if they do it early, they can rest Tim more.
New Orleans really hurt their chances with the loss tonight. But our remaining games against them are still very meaningful if we have to go to a second tie-breaker with Houston. The best thing, obviously, would be for the Spurs to win all their remaining games. But in order to do that, they probably couldn't rest Tim more.
Being healthy is the most important thing. But it would really help to be healthy, and have HCA through the first 2 rounds. Beating New Orleans probably gives the Spurs the tie-breaker and HCA. Being healthy probably means resting Tim more.
I'll say again... beating N.O. next game could be the key to the post-season. Mostly because they could rest Tim more.
Okay?
Last edited by GSH; 03-27-2009 at 10:44 PM.
Whatever... you're certainly en led to your opinion.
The reality is that we're going to go out there and try to win the game just like any other game. And just like any other regular season game (ie: like the lost game against the Rockets the other day), it won't make or break our playoffs plans.
What's most likely to happen is that Pop rests TD as much as he's been doing lately, and still plays Manu reduced minutes. He's not going to go crazy for just a regular season game. You should listen to the coach of your own team when he says HCA is overrated.
Plus NOH is nowhere near the team it was last year, especially D.West.
I thought you made a very good point in your first post but this puts a whole new spin and makes the game even more important. Yes it is a regular season game, but there are some games that do make more of a difference than others.
(*The 07 Mavs team that let a regular season game go and ended up with GS in the playoffs comes to mind.)
I was at the NYK's game tonight and I saw New Orleans playing. They look really out of rhythm, me and my friend both noticed it. When Chris Paul isn't out there that team really doesn't have much chemistry. Also not to mention the over-paid Posey isn't the spark off the bench either. And no Peja or Chandler is another to make me think the Spurs will easily take this team. But who knows they've had trouble in the past....
I knew Chandler would probably be out, but what's wrong with Peja? He still having back problems or something?
Spurs win by 10+
Exactly. (And thanks, btw.)
Look at one very realistic scenario. Suppose the Spurs lose the next game to the Hornets:
The Spurs last game of the season is against New Orleans. If the Spurs stumble and lose a couple of close games down the stretch, they could legitimately wind up tied with those two teams. And that one, final game against New Orleans could make the difference between the #2 seed and the #4 seed. I think most people would look at that as a very important last game of the season. The Spurs can't take any chances of letting that happen. HCA may be over-rated, but it is far from meaningless if you are really planning on winning it all.
No matter what some people may say, not all losses are created equally, especially when so many teams are within a game or two of each other. And since we know that the Spurs can't win the first tie-breaker against Houston or Denver, division games become extremely important. We only have 2 division games left, both against N.O. We need to win at least one of them. Winning the first would be much better than needing to win the last one.
If someone told Pop today that he could sit Tim for 5 of the last 10 games, and still get the #3 seed, do you think he would take the deal? I think he would jump on it. But if he knew it would give them the #5 seed instead (and almost guarantee playing the second round on the road), I don't think he would have anything to do with it.
Well a win against New Orleans is basically worth an extra half-game lead over the Rockets and Hornets. And it would make it much more difficult for the Spurs to do worse than a #3 seed. It's not a "must win" game - but it is a luxury game. And that luxury is the ability to keep Tim fresh for the playoffs, without worrying about the cost.
[Note: I'm not questioning whether the Spurs can beat N.O. next game. I'm saying it's important that they do beat them. I hope you are all correct about Chandler, and the game being a cake-walk. Because it's a big win, at this point in the season.]
I honestly think we are gonna be #2 regardless of what happens Sunday. Did u see Manu tonight? This is obviously a different team with him back.
Theres alot of dog eat dog out there btw. I honestly don't see any of those teams winning out the rest of their games. Which is pretty much what they would have to do to get past the Spurs imo.
Agreed the rule changes have made this guy a star. If he played in the early 90's you would'nt even know his name he's soft as tissue paper. And I'd love to kick his little ass.To me, what separates the Hornets from the elite isn't talent, it's the reaction to adversity. EVERYTHING broke for them last year, as far as catching the league somewhat by surprise, and having minimal injuries. This year, they ing crumpled and started sniping and backbiting when things didn't go their way. In a word: immaturity.
BTW, I ing HATE Chris Paul, and if there were one player that I could pick to have his team disintegrate around him, it would be CP3. Bonus!!
I think his game, at least offensively, is premier. I just hate his at ude, like he's done something of note in the league when he hasn't yet, and his constant blatant flopping. If he would just shut up and straight ball, he'd probably be one of my favorite non-Spurs.
Me, too. Just play and stop the whining! And with the meltdown going on in NO it just proves that a mature and professional outlook is a neccessary ingredient to getting deep in the POs. And you were right about last year - EVERYTHING pretty much went their way until game 7 in round 2.
hey GSH, have you seen manu's last 2 game? what do you think of his ankle?
I think you listen to Pop too much. He is right about most things, but not about everythng. And can you really type with a straight face that the season games between the Bucks/Nets/Knicks/Hawks and the season games between the Jazz/LAL/NO/Houston/Portland/Dallas are equal? Even besides making a "statement", that's a full game swing in the standings. I'm not saying overplay the Big 3, but watch how much you rest them, cuz having to possibly play 4 road games in a PO series by the 2nd round isn't worth it.
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