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True!
Don’t count the Spurs out yet
By Austin Burton
Auto-robotic response upon hearing the news Manu Ginobili is out for the rest of the season: “The Spurs are done, they’re toast, peace out, etc., etc. …” Whether you said it with a huge grin on your face as a Lakers fan, or with an “Oops I crapped my pants” look as a Spurs fan, it was an easy conclusion to jump to.
Are they really done, though? We’re talking about the same team that went to the Western Conference Finals in ‘08 and — just ask the Lakers — were pretty damn close to winning that series. The Spurs had a big lead in Game 1 and blew it; they were blown out in Game 2; won Game 3; lost Game 4 by two points after the whole Brent Barry/Derek Fisher call-or-no-call; and lost Game 5 by eight points. Realistically, that series could have gone 4-1 San Antonio’s way.
While the obvious scapegoat in that series was Ginobili’s poor play — he couldn’t push off on his injured ankle and attack the rim, and his jumper was off — the Spurs’ problems ran deeper than that. That team had an old bench, and guys who they’d been able to rely on in the past (Robert Horry, Bruce Bowen, Barry) didn’t come through when called upon.
Since then, San Antonio has addressed that issue. Matt Bonner (8.4 ppg, 45% 3PA) started off the season looking like a slightly better version of Brian Scalabrine, but he’s found his niche in Gregg Popovich’s system and has been effective. Mike Finley (9.8 ppg, 42% 3PA) looked like he needed to retire after last year’s playoffs, but he’s been better this year; less than a month ago he dropped 25 points in a game against the Lakers. Drew Gooden has provided some much-needed frontcourt help; in his last two games he’s averaged 16 points per. And of course there’s Roger Mason (11.6 ppg, 41% 3PA). The biggest benefactor of Manu’s absence can be an effective third option on offense — he has 10 games of 20-plus points this season — and is a proven go-to guy in crunch-time.
Without Manu, the Spurs go into these playoffs a lot like Michigan State went into Monday’s national championship game. They have a chance to win it all, but their margin for error is small. They can’t give away leads, can’t miss a lot of free throws and blow wide-open shots, can’t turn the ball over, and can’t have too many defensive breakdowns.
Here’s the thing, though: In the Tim Duncan era, no NBA team has been better at navigating tiny margins for error. If you’re counting on a team to make mistakes, blow golden opportunities and underachieve, San Antonio is absolutely NOT that team. How often have the Spurs lost to a lower-seeded team in the playoffs? (Duncan has never lost in the first round.) How often have they quietly exited the postseason?
All you can say about Duncan is that HE’S STILL TIM DUNCAN. Tony Parker (21.8 ppg, 6.9 apg) is playing the best basketball of his career. And Pop isn’t going to get out-coached by anyone. What did people say when the Lakers were winning championships: As long as they had Kobe, Shaq and Phil, you could pretty much put anyone around them and they’d be in the championship mix, if not win the whole thing. The Spurs have their dominant big man, they have their explosive lead guard, and they have their outstanding coach. They also have a system that’s proven to work even with interchangeable parts, and they play defense.
Also working to the Spurs’ advantage is at least now they know Manu won’t be able to help them. In last year’s L.A. series, the knowledge that Manu was on the court created a level of expectation, and when that didn’t work out, it threw the Spurs off. They couldn’t counter. This time Pop has weeks to game plan around Manu’s absence.
Obviously, Manu would make things a lot easier, but this team can win a championship without him. To write them off at this point is just short-sighted and silly.
True!
We can still win it all by becoming the defensive team we need to be.
Start :
Duncan
Gooden
Bowen
Mason
Parker
no ifs and or buts about it, that is the lineup that has a chance to beat any team in the playoffs, we have to switch mindsets and focus on the halfcourt sets, and dust off the old Duncan Robinson high low game plan.
yeah. That's what I'm talking about. We ARE NOT going down without a fight!
Sorry, but he's not that TIM DUNCAN at the moment.All you can say about Duncan is that HE’S STILL TIM DUNCAN.
Start :
Duncan
Gooden
Bowen
Mason
Parker
Go small offensive for the 2nd squad?
Vaughn
Finely
Udoka
Bonner
Thomas
pop is no dummy, he wasnt blindsided like this, he was worried about Manu long time ago and has prepared for this, hence all the late season tinkering. IN THE BEARD WE TRUST!!!!
You gotta be outta your mind. Vaughn is DONE. And hopefully Pop realizes that too. NO Vaughn at all please.
Starters:
TP, Mason, Bowen, Duncan, Thomas.
Bench:
Hill, Udoka? Hairston?, Finley, Gooden, Bonner (if he sucks, bench him and play Oberto.)
He's far from it. And I haven't seen anything consistent enough that tells me he'll be able to get near Playoff Duncan. I hope I'm wrong.
if Duncan's knees don't bother him too much, AND if we play great D
Why not?
Tim's at 60% health. At that health, he's a 15 point 8 rebound, 42 % shooting percentage player.
If Tim were 100 % healthy, then it would be possible to believe this.
I think we need all 3 to be near 100 % healthy to be favorites to win it all. That wasn't the case even before Manu went out. With no Manu and Tim at 60%, we're done.
I think that we all know this to be true, as much as we wish it were otherwise. And I know that we will all cheer for the Spurs anyways.
Go Spurs !
Go Spurstalk !
Get well soon Manu !
of course we can still win, never give up, get ready to fight!!!
I want the Spurs to dig deep and preserve the 3 seed. If the seedings fall right and LA gets the Hornets in round two they could be pushed a bit in that series.
San Antonio will have a much tougher time with Denver in round two than they might with Ginobili, but I still think that we can take that series.
It's going to fall on TP to step up and be All-NBA this post season, but I think he's got it in him.
I agree. I wouldn't have a problem with Thomas or even Oberto starting at center, but that high low could work with Gooden, as he does a great job of being able to play the post while simultaneously staying out of Duncan's way.
Hill and Hairston have to be involved, and Hill has to just be given the backup point guard reins and told to do the best he can.
Vaughn and Udoka need to be put on the end of the bench.
Pretty good article. Kinda gets me pumped!
The Spurs had a big lead in Game 1 and blew it; they were blown out in Game 2; won Game 3; lost Game 4 by two points after the whole Brent Barry/Derek Fisher call-or-no-call; and lost Game 5 by eight points. Realistically, that series could have gone 4-1 San Antonio’s way.
This is the moral victory part that no one is willing to acknowledge, but we'll have to wait until the WCF's again so the Spurs can come out on top this time and show everyone that they were closer last year than everyone realizes...
The Spurs have as good a chance as Utah, Houston, Denver or Portland--- whatever that chance is. Their fans think they have a chance.
One thing I agree with is that it could be better to know there is no Manu, than to hope he will return to Super-Manu form for the playoffs. Mason now knows that he will have the role he had earlier when Manu was out.
Another way to look at it---- can the Spurs get their defense up to championship quality? with or without Manu I don't see how they could win a championship whithout great defense.
So the Spurs aren't those Spurs at the moment.
"Don’t Count The Spurs Out Yet" is about other team.Not The Spurs right now
You can reach Austin at [email protected].
(But I like the way he thinks.)
Good article. Gives me a little bit of relief!
Go ing Spurs ing Go!!!!!!
yeah baby!
Good article.
Pessimists and nonbelievers: the door is thatta way ------->
If TD was healthy and the Spurs were playing well, I'd believe this article.
Holy , we beat the Thunder and now the spurs are contenders again!!
Try and make the best of it I guess.
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