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I want to change my vote to over 50%!
more than 50 %: Spurs are frontrunners every year since Tim is here
between 30 and 50 %: Spurs are right there with the best teams of the league
between 10 and 30 %: Well, we're not in the best shape. But i still like our chances
between 1-10 %: That shouldn't be our year. but i won't yet bury the spurs
1 %: miracle needed here
0%: let's think about next year.
pessimist 0%: the spurs dynasty is over.
0%: let's think about next year.
With the right moves, the Spurs could get themselves back into the picture next year. It all depends on how much the Spurs FO wants to win as opposed to how much they can reap in luxury tax benefits...
I want to change my vote to over 50%!
I voted 1-10 %. Guys don't count out the Spurs. Even though Manu is a big part of our team we have managed to beat alot of teams this year without him including the Boston Celtics in Boston. Duncan and Parker will make some noise in the playoffs.
http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=290208002
Manu had 19-3-3 that game...
Less than 1% if TD is not 100%.
We need 100% TD + 100% TP + lots of luck.
So many things have to go our way for us even to have a chance lol. First we need Duncan's knees to come back. Then we need our perimeter players to shoot the lights out during the playoffs. We need the Lakers to somehow get upset so we don't have to play them. We need Cavs to get upset. We need to be playing some steroidal offense and playing with 120% effort on defense the entire way. And that is the 1% chance I voted for. I believe in miracles >.>.
a lot of efforts to earn this 1 %
My pessimism is more related to Pop than Ginobili. I still say that this team has enough talent to win if they play well together. I don't see the coach allowing that to happen.
This is exactly the way I feel.
Closer to zero rather than one.
It's questionable whether we can win in any round, doubtful that we can win round 2 and simply insane to think that we have any chance at all to beat the Lakers.
It was doubtful that we could beat the Lakers even if Manu was healthy.
With Tim perfectly healthy and Tony perfectly healthy and Manu perfectly healthy, then I think that we could beat the Lakers. But with Tim at 60 % (like now), then even with a healthy Manu and a healthy Tony, we had very little shot.
it was against a bad team, but i still feel a little bit better after the OKC game.
seeing bruce play and gooden doing well is great.
Like I've been saying in some other threads, I still believe we might have a decent chance if the Spurs reshape the way they play.
I give us a solid 33% chance to beat the Lakers.
*It will take Gooden filling every gap that the Spurs have in the paint.
*All out dominance from Duncan (something that looks very iffy at this point.)
*Bowen has to play and he has to be the stopper he once was and he has to knock down 45% of his threes.
*Finley and Mason have to hit around 48% of their threes in the "big" games.
*Parker has to be the best point guard on the planet for the entire playoffs.
That is definitely achievable. But there is no margin for error.
I think the indicator of this kind of performance is that if the Spurs lose a single game one in any series they will lose that series.
Last edited by DespЏrado; 04-08-2009 at 02:20 AM.
I picked 1%. Pretty hard to justify anything higher with no Manu and Duncan at 60%.
A lot of injuries would need to happen around the NBA in order for that to happen.
Doubt that it will.
Chances should be below 10%
1-10%
It will not be easy but IMO we have a realistic chance to go to the WCF.
Then we should have no chance... but who knows, anything can happen when you have two series left.
I would also say that the Spurs dynasty is over.
We should still have a shot at a championship in the next 2/3 years, but we will not dominate as we used to.
Between 1-10%.
We are not expected to do anything at this point. But, I would never count them out. Especially with the addition of Gooden.
Just one thing, the proposed % are not realistic.
If you consider the finals will be a 50/50 matchup between the west and the east (the odds should not be much different than that). You have 50% chance of winning a championship between LA, Denver, Houston, Spurs, Portland, NO, Utah, Dallas.
I admit Dallas or NO have almost no chance but still, a 10% chance to win it all would be great and a 30% chance would be the best in the league.
I'm optimistic
polled 1%
i don't really agree even if i understand your point.
if 10 % of chance to win it all would be such a great odd, there wouldn't have any mutiple winner, like the spurs or LA recently.
since we've won it 50 % of the times since 2003 (3 times of 6), i guess that either we were a "50 % of chances to win it all" team these last years, or we were really lucky and we overrachieved.
and i guess it's safe to say that the 90's jordan bulls had more than 50 % of chances to win it all. way more even.
Still, it's not false to say that this year, it seems there are a lot of true contenders and that should share the odds of winning it all. but you have to realize that's often the case before the PO. but after, you often realize that some teams were just not for real. that's why there aren't so many NBA champions. we'll see what happen.
Last edited by kace; 04-08-2009 at 10:45 AM.
I am talking about this year.
Obviously the best team has the better chance. This year it is probably the Lakers or the Cavs.
The best team in the 90 was the Bulls with a wide margin so you may be right with your 50%.
The best team from 1999 to 2007 was the best team from the West (Lakers or Spurs) with Detroit and Miami being the statistical exception.
So it is likely we had a great chance.
But this year the balance of power is different. The Laker, Cavs, Celtics have a legit chance to win it all. A bunch of other team including the Spurs have a shot (but very tinny). I guess no team has more than a 30% shot at winning it all unless the Lakers OR Cavs are way better than expected.
i just edited my post. but you still got a valid point. but you'll see some teams will fall under pressure. As usual.
i guess a lot of people thought the Spurs-Cleveland serie from 2007 was 60-40 and you realize after that the cavs had no real chance.
but you're right by saying that 30 % of chance to win it all is still great and that 10 % is yet a good thing.
i think it tells a lot about how spoiled the spurs fans are. we expect the win, nothing else.
Last edited by kace; 04-08-2009 at 10:51 AM.
Spurs still have a good chance to win the championship this year - only Pop's coaching could mess it up to where there is "just no chance."
I approve of his coaching and rotations last night. Bowen got lots of PT and thats what we need to win.
between 1-10 %: That shouldn't be our year. but i won't yet bury the spurs
It would be miraculous is we won. I believe in miracles. Let's give it a go.
The finals this year will not be 50/50. The lakers are most likely to advance and will be favored unless they suffer an injury in the last week. There will be a favorite and that team will have the higher % to win. All the teams will have odds to win before the playoffs start. Check with Vegas and those odds will reflect the percentages as posted in this thread or probability of winning the championship.
Another point the Vegas odds are the odds on how they expect people to bet. Team favorites like the lakers and Celtics and Dallas in football will have odds that push the betting line towards them so as close as possible equal money gets bet on each side.
I believed until I saw last night's game. If Finley is starting, and is also the backup point guard, and Hill and Hairston are getting no minutes, the Spurs are ed.
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