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Oh and if you've already folded tent and have given up on the season, please post in one of the other hundreds of threads dedicated to your cause.
Thanks.
Times are tough for the San Antonio Spurs. Manu Ginobili is out for the regular season and the playoffs with a stress fracture. Tim Duncan has one chronically sore knee and one knee suffering from a degenerative condition. The treads on Tony Parker's wheels are undoubtedly worn. All the while, head coach Gregg Popovich has consistently been inconsistent with his rotation throughout the entire 2008-09 NBA season.
As a result, it should be no surprise that the confidence of Spurs fans is at a low not seen for more than a decade. The focus amongst Spurs fans has already shifted from this year to next season. In the eyes of most Spurs fans, the hopes for championship number five have been delayed, at the least.
I am as guilty as any of my fellow Spurs fans in giving up on this campaign. The unfortunate Ginobili announcement seemed to be the season's death knell. However, after much consideration, I have decided to change my stance. While the odds are long and the obstacles are high, I just can't give up yet. As long as Duncan is willing to hobble out there on one knee, as long as Parker is willing to summon the needed vivacity and as long as everyone else keeps chipping away at that rock, I can't turn the chapter on this season.
It's easy to be a Spurs fan when things are going well. As Spurs fans, we have suckled at the teat of victory for an astonishingly long time. Now that we have hit a rough patch of sea in this ocean of success, it's unacceptable to cut bait and head for shore. As long as the Spurs are still fighting for the ultimate prize, I will remain dedicated to the cause.
Considering the aforementioned, I unfurl my vision on how the Spurs can win the 2008-09 NBA championship.
The first order of business is to assess the health of the foundation. Tim Duncan is unquestionably slowed at the moment. At times, the pain in Duncan's knees is rivaled only by the pain of Spurs fans watching him struggle with movements that were previously effortless. While Duncan's sore knees are much cause for concern, we must not forget whom we are dealing with. This is Tim Duncan, ladies and gentlemen. A man who has elevated his game like clockwork once the bright lights of the postseason begin to shine.
Since the All-Star break, Duncan's statistics illustrate his health problems. In 22 contests, he's averaging 16.4 points and 10.6 rebounds in 30.5 minutes per game. Although far from encouraging numbers, this isn't Duncan's maiden journey into injury-related struggles following the All-Star break.
Exhibit A is Duncan's 2005-06 campaign. Following the All-Star break, his numbers were 33.1 minutes, 16.9 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. Exhibit B is Duncan's 2004-05 season. That year, he averaged 28.3 minutes, 17.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game following the All-Star break. In 2005-06, he was hampered by a severe case of plantar fasciitis, while 2004-05 saw him slow due to multiple ankle injuries.
What else do those two years have in common? The answer: a dominant Duncan in the playoffs. In 2006 postseason, he averaged 32.3 points and 11.7 rebounds per game in the series against the Dallas Mavericks. In 2005, as Spurs fans are well aware, the Spurs were able to win the championship with Duncan averaging 23.6 points and 12.4 rebounds in the postseason.
The message these stats should deliver is one of hope. Yes, Duncan isn't anywhere near healthy at the moment. Yes, time appears to be running out for Duncan to resurge. However, he has fought his way out of similar injury-laden holes only to re-emerge as his predictably extraordinary self once the bell tolls on the real season.
Alongside Duncan will be Tony Parker. And while Parker may seem like a known commodity, this isn't the same Tony Parker you are used to watching. The Parker of this season has elevated his game to superstar status. To say 2008-09 has been a career year would be an understatement.
This season, Parker is averaging more points and assists than ever. A closer look shows even more impressive stats. Even though he's scoring 10.5% more points per minute and dishing out 11.1% more assists per minute than at any point, he has managed to lower his turnover rate and his turnover percentage to career-best marks. His assists-to-turnover ratio is also far and away his career-best.
Parker's presence on the offensive end is undeniable. Per 100 possessions, the Spurs score 113.3 points when Parker is on the court. Only two teams in the league, the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns, score as often as the Spurs do when Parker is playing. With forthcoming elevated minutes in the postseason, San Antonio has reason to be optimistic about their offense.
The offense that Parker quarterbacks has been extremely efficient throughout all the turmoil. Per possession, the Spurs turn the ball over less than any team in the NBA. Per possession, the Spurs are second in the NBA in assists. Those two numbers combined point to a point guard who knows how to orchestrate his show.
One caveat that has long been placed alongside Parker's success is an inability to produce late in games. This season, the 26-year-old has evidently matured to the point that he's now legitimately a late game option. In the fourth quarter, Parker averages 5.9 points per game, which is the 12th highest mark in the league. His shooting percentage in fourth quarters is 50.8% and that number is higher than the all 11 scorers ahead of him on the list.
In clutch situations, Parker has been even better. He has averaged 36.5 points per 48 minutes during the clutch and shoots 51.3% from the field. Perhaps the skill that will be missed most during Ginobili's absence is the Argentine's ability to produce during key moments. With Parker growth in this area, all hope is not lost.
If Duncan regains his footing and becomes a force in the playoffs and Parker continues to play at a superstar level, it can be argued defiantly that these two Spurs players can form the best one-two punch in the NBA. Show me a team with the best one-two punch in the NBA and I'll show you an NBA championship contender.
The role players on the 2008-09 Spurs are far from awe-inspiring, but I definitely see potential. Roger Mason, Jr. is the player who will be called upon to replace many of Ginobili's minutes at shooting guard. Following a surprisingly strong start to the season, Mason has been erratic. Some games he looks as if he's the planet's best shooter, other games he makes Spurs fans wonder what they ever liked about him.
What shouldn't be ignored is the fact that Mason has stepped up admirably when the Spurs have been without Ginobili. In the 34 games Ginobili has missed this season, Mason has averaged 13.7 points while shooting 43.3% from the field and 44.7% from beyond the three-point arc.
In fact, playing next to Ginobili has been problematic for Mason this season, with the most plausible reason being that the two didn't go through a training camp together and thus lack chemistry. In 44 games playing with Ginobili, Mason is averaging 10.1 points per game while shooting 40.7% from the field and 39.3% from three-point land.
There is no way that Mason can ever come close to replacing what Ginobili provides on a possession to possession or a game to game basis, but if he can continue to score and shoot at a high clip in his stead, the Spurs would have a chance. Plus, if the regular season is any indication, Mason doesn't exactly shy away from big moments.
Next to Mason on the perimeter will be Michael Finley. It's true that Finley can go through maddening dry spells. It's also clear that Popovich plays Finley more minutes than he deserves at times. That said, what makes Finley a frustrating player also makes him a player who just might become an x-factor - his streakiness. He can go through ice cold spells but he's also very capable of catching fire.
This season, Finley has quietly streaked in the positive direction more often than in his previous three seasons in San Antonio. The 36-year-old is shooting 41.8% from beyond the three-point line, which is easily the best mark of his career. His overall shooting percentage of 44.1% is nearly three percentage points higher than his next best mark as a member of the Spurs.
Defensively, while still far from great, he's playing at his highest level on that end in more than five years. He lost weight and got in better shape during the offseason and that has allowed him to stay in front of his man much more often than in previous campaigns. Finley isn't a lockdown perimeter defender by any means but in the right match-up, he has proven to be useful this season.
Regarding Finley, Spurs fans will just have to hope he goes through a hot phase at the right time. When he's on, he's capable of shooting this team to victory almost single-handedly. If that can happen just two or three times during the playoffs, Finley's season will have been a smashing success.
The backup swingmen, Bruce Bowen and Ime Udoka, provide a healthy amount of grit. In the case of Bruce Bowen, his championship experience should not be undervalued. Even at 37, he can still defend. If the Spurs run up against a top flight perimeter player in the playoffs, Bowen has shown the ability at times to elevate his game back to the level that made him the best perimeter defender in the game of basketball.
Bowen's impact is still felt in the statistics. When he's on the court, opponents score 103 points per 100 possessions. When he's on the bench, opponents score 107.2 points per 100 possessions. On the other end, Bowen's shooting is still an asset. His three-point percentage is 43%, the highest it has been since he led the NBA in three-pointer shooting during the 2002-03 season. His 42.5% field goal percentage is the third highest of his Spurs career.
Popovich has hinted that he has been saving Bowen for the playoffs. If that is the case, the Spurs defense in the postseason could be considerably better than what has been on display during the regular season. That in itself should inspire hope in Spurs fans.
While Udoka has struggled through a difficult season, he is still a helpful player when he's on top of his game. At his best, Udoka is a good defender who can knock down open shots and coral rebounds by the boatload. He's shooting just 37% from the field and 30.6% from the three-point line this season, but last season against the New Orleans Hornets showed his potential to heat up. During that series, Udoka shot 61.5% from the field and 64.7% from beyond the three-point arc.
Rookie George Hill has taken on a utility role out on the perimeter. Even though he's only 6-foot-2, he's shown an ability to play point guard, shooting guard and small forward thanks to his athleticism and condor-like wingspan. Hill likely won't be handed any consistent minutes during the postseason, however he has definitely shown flashes of ability during his first season in the NBA. If he gets on a roll in the playoffs, there's a chance he could become a key cog in San Antonio’s machine.
Manning the frontcourt next to Tim Duncan is the heterogeneous collection that is Matt Bonner, Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto and Drew Gooden. Individually each of these bigmen offer useful traits. In the postseason, the hope will be that Popovich figures out how to mix and match so that the hodgepodge of abilities are properly utilized.
In Bonner, the Spurs have their bigman with perimeter marksmanship. For nearly the entire season, he's been one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA. Over the last few months, he's added a dependable slashing game to his repertoire. And while he's definitely an unorthodox bigman compared to most others at his position in the NBA, a lot of Spurs fans would be surprised at how successful he's been during the 2008-09 campaign.
On the season, Bonner has a plus/minus of +245. That mark is second on the team, trailing only Parker. Even more impressively, his plus/minus per minute is +.152, which is far and away the best mark on the team. In fact, it is 21.1% better than any other player. The Spurs score substantially more points when he's on the court and, even though his defense isn't always appreciated, opponents score less when Bonner is on the court.
On the whole, Bonner definitely has his warts as a player but he's had a very good season, relatively speaking, and his outside shooting in the playoffs has a chance to be a difference maker. He'll have to prove it on the court but the numbers say Bonner has, and can, help when the postseason arrives.
To begin the season, Thomas looked like a lost cause. He was extremely slow, his mobility was limited and his outside shot wasn't finding cord. But starting in the middle of December, Thomas turned around his season and has been a godsend. Since the All-Star break, he's averaging 5.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per game in 20 minutes. Those numbers are impressive, however they don't tell the story of how well he has defended and how helpful he has been on the offensive end with his unmovable picks.
In the playoffs, the 36-year-old could very well see an uptick in minutes. If that occurs, Thomas has shown the ability to be very productive in various facets of the game. Like Bowen, he's a veteran who very well could peak when it's money time.
Fabricio Oberto has been on the outside of the rotation looking in. His play hasn't been up to par and his reoccurring heart condition has further hindered his season. However, a Spurs fan just has to recall his brilliant play during the 2007 NBA championship run to understand his capabilities. In the right match-up, Oberto is a very useful 11th or 12th man to have at the end of the bench.
The wildcard in the bigman rotation, and perhaps on the entire team, is newcomer Drew Gooden. Since joining the Spurs, he's shown the good aspects of his game that have kept teams intrigued over the years, along with the negative aspects that have attributed to his welcome being worn out in each of his previous NBA stops.
You can question Gooden's motivation, his willingness to fit into a team concept and even whether he has championship-level moxie, however what you can't question is his talent. On the offensive end, he can score in the low block, he can nail shots from the perimeter and he can score off the dribble. Defensively, his live body allows him to be an adequate individual defender and a capable shot-blocker.
Can Gooden learn to maximize his talents within the Spurs system while minimizing his tendency to hog the ball on offense and fall asleep on defense? If he can, his ceiling on the Spurs is extremely high. To date, he's averaging 8.9 points and 3.8 rebounds in only 15.4 minutes per game. To put that in perspective, Gooden is averaging more points per minute in his short time with San Antonio than either Duncan or Ginobili.
Imagine for a second that Gooden evolves enough to where he can play major minutes at some point during the playoffs. Now start adding the other pieces to the equation. A creaky foundation that battles back from injury to be the Tim Duncan in the playoffs. A superstar level Tony Parker. A bevy of shooters capable of shooting lights out. A handful of veterans who may have yet seen the peak to their season. Imagine all of that and you can't tell me the Spurs don't have a shot.
No matter how good of a chance you believe the Spurs have at this point, any reasonable observer would give this team at least a shred of hope. Be sure to add to the equation a four-time NBA champion coach who has shown his Hall of Fame mettle over the years and who seems to thrive when the going gets treacherous. I don't know about you, my fellow Spurs fan, but I'm not ready to stop believing.
Believe.
Oh and if you've already folded tent and have given up on the season, please post in one of the other hundreds of threads dedicated to your cause.
Thanks.
the things you write are really some of the only things worth reading on this board. thanks.
I always believe, though things looked pretty bleak watching Duncan in the Blazers game. I appreciate you breaking it down in a way that shows the team for who they are: A core group of experienced Champions, surrounded by a cast of role players that have talent.
If any team can rise through this kind of season it's the Pop/Duncan led Spurs. Championship poise and execution are the backbone of this team.
Thanks for the time, effort, and research. And thanks for a 'Believe' thread for '09.
Buckle up. It's going to be quite a ride.
very well written post timvp..
my problem with this team is simple..Duncan's knees..that's what it comes down to for me..Timmy is one of the all-time greats in the post-season, and he's certainly stepped his game up through injuries..to me, it comes down to him, and if he can perform through injuries at this age..
I'm in the group that has given up on our le hopes, and that won't really change until I see Duncan play in the playoffs..I've continued to say that the rest of the West is weak, and we can easily make the conference finals if Duncan can play healthy, regardless of Manu's injury..
it's just tough to imagine Tim elevating his game in the playoffs to the level that we'll need from him..and that's where my negative at ude comes from..
Bonzi Wells has been fat, out of shape, and horrible for a few years now..
that's not DOOABLE..
Is this an autoban clause?
Honestly I can't wait for the death of the church of Manu after the Spurs win it this year without him.
Really happy to see that you found again some faith and hope in this team for these PO
and, as usual, a great read. indeed, i've been searching for a good article about spurs current situation and this is the best i've found. thanks.
That's why I want the Spurs to rest Duncan and tank enough to get the Lakers in the first Round. I think he can give more effort in a sustained short burst if he can go all out against the hardest team first.
Well put Timvp. Damn well put. I can't really add anything more to what you wrote.
Our hopes are at their lowest point but the ceiling seems a of a lot higher.
great article timvp, As long as Pop can settle on his rotations the Spurs will have a chance.
If Pop decides to give back the back up PG spot to Hill, this gives the Spurs another player that can attack the basket and dish out when needed. The main problem when Mason plays the back up PG he is out of his element, he is comfortable in either the catch and shoot or coming off screens and shooting. Same with Finley.
Although Hill has yet to prove that he can consistently finish at the basket, he has proven he can get to the basket and that is the key, that alone will cause defenders to leave their assignments on the arc, and then Hill can choose to either finish or pass out to an open Mason, Finley, Bonner, Bowen, etc. Other than Parker no one else can get to the rim.
I agree with your assessment of Gooden, he has shown that he can be the 4th scorer for the Spurs but he needs to show that he can be a consistent team defender and rebound the ball at a higher rate.
I also get the feeling that Pop has been saving Bowen for the playoffs, but until Manu got injured I felt that Pop was going to keep him out of the rotation.
The key during the playoffs, is for the Spurs and Pop to make game to game adjustments, which in my opinion Pop is one of the best at making game to game adjustments, which is why I typically don't get worried when the Spurs have a bad game in the playoffs. For instance last year against the Hornets after games 1 and 2, Pop moved Bowen off Paul and had him guard Peja, results, Spurs win series.
The one player I have problems with is Udoka, I use to like him, but now everytime time I see him shoot the ball I can tell it is off, his jumper just doesn't have any rhthm, I would rather have Marcus Williams take his minutes at this point. Use Udoka as a utility player when the match up dictates the use of his rebounding and ability to guard the stronger SG/SF/PF
3 point shooting will be key now more then ever in the 2009 playoffs, since we are missing one of the best slashers/play makers in the league.
as timvp signature states "Believe" in 2009, it is after all an odd year!!!!
The Spurs will show NO REMORSE
WOW timvp, that was a DAMN good post.. That's what I'm talking about. You literally hit everything right on the head. I Believe, that's for damn sure.
The one he did when the Spurs were down 3-1 to the Mavs was way better. The last time I was getting some pregame dome and couldn't get it up to start the show, I read that post and was money for like four hours without popping one off. True story.WOW timvp, that was a DAMN good post.
I don't think I am not being realistic but I will never give up on the Spurs. I believe in the hearts of Tim, TP, and the Spurs. I am sure Tim and TP will lift up their higher level of plays in the POs like they have always done year after year. I also believe that our supporting energy on this forum will give them more fire power to play at their best.
GSG!
The power of prayer always helps. Pray Duncan's knees get better. Pray that each player on our Spurs team plays the game of their lives through the post-season. I believe in prayer and the power of faith :O.
I'm in it for the long-haul. We ride together we die together! Go out fighting!
Your thoughts are my thoughts Timvp, and I am happy you wrote them..
I do believe in this championship and in theses playoffs coming.
And you point out perfectly where it would start : with our foundation, our franchise, Mr Tim Duncan.
I believe
Xap'
I can't disagree, but I think that there is one more thing standing between them and another Championship. I'm sure I will catch the typical flame storm, any time something like this is mentioned. But if you want to talk about the Spurs actually winning it all, it has to be part of the equation.
A few years ago, teams around the league finally recognized that there was no way to stop Tim Duncan consistently. So the best way to defend him is to "keep him from getting the ball". In trying to accomplish that, they have pushed the envelope far beyond any semblance of the rules. The amount of abuse that Tim takes off the ball is unequalled anywhere else in the league. For example:
The other night I watched Nick Collison standing directly behind Tim in the low post. He had his left hand on Tim's back, and his right arm wrapped around Tim's body. Tony was trying to pass Tim the Ball, but Collison's right hand was extended out in between Tim's, so that it looked like Tim had 3 arms. If that wasn't bad enough, when it looked like Tony might try to pass to Tim anyway, Collison shoved Tim from behind with his left hand hard enough to make Tim bend over at the waist, and lower his arms to try and retain his balance. Collison didn't have to use any technique or footwork. He got the benefit of fronting Tim, while retaining the luxury of staying between him and the basket. That has nothing to do with the game of basketball.
Tim has someone draped on him on almost every play that he is in the game. If you've ever watched heavyweight boxing, you know that technique is often used by brawlers who are overmatched by their opponents. And you also understand that it takes a toll in the later rounds. It's no wonder his knees are bad.
I'm not saying that these things only happen to the Spurs or to Tim (although I am convinced that Tim takes the worst of it, by far). For instance - in a recent game against the Lakers, the Clippers cut a 19 point deficit down to 3 points at the end of the game. The play called for Eric Gordon to attempt a final 3-pointer to send the game to overtime. The following description of the play was published on the NBA's website:
Gordon never touched the ball, Baron Davis missed a three at the buzzer and the Clippers lost. "It was like we didn't play basketball at the end," he said about Bryant's defense. "It was like WWF or something. Wrestling." Bryant just smiled and said, "There's no way he was getting a shot off. He just wasn't." Another day in the life of a rookie.
That last comment was tossed off so casually, like this sort of thing is just to be expected. But the reason it is to be expected is that it has become part of the fabric of the NBA. It's not hard to picture the smirk on Kobe's face as he made his comment. He knows the lay of the land, and he knew that he wouldn't get a whistle in crunch time, no matter what he did to Gordon. It doesn't take any exceptional talent to defend a guy, if you are free to mug him off the ball. Tim Duncan lives with that every night. But if he tried to defend that same way, he would have four fouls in the first quarter of every game. That's just a fact of life.
When the Spurs were running at 100%, that probably brought some parity to the league, and some drama to the playoffs. But with Manu out, and Tim playing hurt, it's too much to overcome. If the Spurs are going to win another le, they need Tim Duncan. And he needs a reprieve from some of the outrageous contact off the ball.
That's the spirit, timvp!
Of course it is a long shot to even think about something like a le with Manu injured, but f*ck it, let's just play the games and see what happens.
Right now, it looks like a first-round matchup against the Blazers is quite likely. They are young, athletic - but unexperienced. It probably would be a grind, but I am absolutely confident we could take this series IF Timmy can be closer to himself come playoff time.
And you know how the song goes: "First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin" ...
Believe.
Yeah seriously, if this was just a blog of timvp reacting to the news items posted by duncan228, I would be a happy man. Although the dedication of duncan228 scares me a little.
The majority of posts are either single line agreements, adding nothing, or multiple lines of absolute monkey .
I believe....
Thanks for the added inspiration brought by your statistical analysis timvp!
I really think the Spurs have a chance even before Timvp posted this thread. Great post.
As long as there is one second basketball left to be played, I will NEVER give up. Giving up is a loosers mentality. You still have Duncan, Parker, Mason, Gooden, Bowen, Thomas,...
If the Spurs knock down their shots and defend on a high level anything is possible.
Believe.
LJ are you really belive the spurs can make it or you want to pesuade yourself that it is really truth?
Spurs in all season were not as good as other teams and now have even more problems ...
However spurs are capable of playing a good ball but a championship level?
Highly imporobable, but what is belive?
Belive is something that you trust something highly improbable can happen.
Nice thread good research
The next few games for us, Houston and Portland will also be important...as important as the team contribution as a whole. In the current spot we are at we will not have home court in any round. Portland has the tiebreaker so we would start the playoffs there. It is certainly doable, as both teams are looking at tougher games than we are.
Until the dirt is actually on our coffin I won't completely call us dead. As the OP indicated, there are many variables that have to line up in order for us to pull this thing off. I have already stated elsewhere that I have become a realist about our situation and lowered my expectations about the rest of our season. I feel like doing this is a good thing for two reasons...I will take it less hard if what is expected happens and I will have more joy if the unthinkable happens.
The final and biggest variable in the equation is defense. Us playing good team D is the one thing that could possibly outweigh the lack of productivity from one of our needed role players. This is what we do...and every trophy in our cabinet is there because of it.
The heart is beating. There is breath in the lungs. Let's see what happens.
Nice post, Timvp.
I certainly haven't given up on this team, but there has been cause for concern in that they just don't look like the Spurs of recent years in this April.
But what really stood out to me reading your post was Bonner's stats.I had no idea he was having such a solid season. That's awesome news!
I really have no idea what to expect when the playoffs start, but one thing's for sure - I'll be watching and cheering the team on win or lose.
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