Spurs vs. Mavs - First Round Series Preview - Part 1
Part 2 - Player Analysis
Tim Duncan
After the All-Star break, Duncan averaged 16.4 points, 11 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 30.4 minutes per contest, while shooting 46.2% from the floor in the 25 games. Those numbers obviously won't be enough against the Mavs. He'll be facing a lot of single-teams and will need to force the Mavs to change that strategy, which won't happen unless he's scoring at a high clip. Offensively, aggressiveness is the key. Getting Eric Dampier in foul trouble would make life easier for him. On defense, Duncan will have to protect the basket without fouling. Quick and smart rotation are a must, especially when the Spurs are playing small ball.
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Tony Parker
In games this season in which Manu Ginobili hasn't played, Tony Parker is averaging 24.5 points and 7.3 assists per game on 50.8% shooting from the field. Against the Mavs, he's going to have to continue to carry the load. If Duncan isn't able to consistently beat single-team coverage, the Spurs may need Parker to average more than 30 points per game to win the series. No matter how Duncan is playing, the Spurs need their point guard to continuously attack and apply pressure virtually every time up the court. Defensively, Parker needs to be much more consistent than he was during the regular season. His defense, especially when guarding Jason Terry or J.J. Barea, will be hugely important.
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Michael Finley
In the 2006 series against the Mavs, Michael Finley played well. He averaged 10.6 points per game on 51.8% shooting from the field and 36.4% from beyond the three-point line. This time around, the Spurs will need even more points out of him. It's very likely that he averages more than 35 minutes in this series and the Spurs will approximately need 12-14 points per game out of their starting small forward. The bad news is that Finley has been horrible against the Mavs in the last three regular seasons. In 16 games, he's averaged only 5.8 points on 34% field goal shooting. If that's the type of offensive production the Spurs get out of Finley in these playoffs, they'd be doomed. Defensively, Finely will need to be ready to work. He's likely to begin games defending Josh Howard and end games defending Dirk Nowitzki.
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Roger Mason, Jr.
In games Ginobili has missed, Roger Mason, Jr. has averaged 13.9 points per contest on 43.8% shooting from the field and 44.1% shooting from beyond the three-point line. It will be very interesting to see how Mason is able to adjust to playoff basketball. He's played well in tight situations this year but the postseason is an entirely different story and he'll have a lot of responsibilities. Not only do the Spurs need him to shoot well, he's Parker's backup at point guard. On the defensive end, he's not a very good match for anyone on the Mavs. Terry and Barea will be difficult for him because they utilize a lot of screens, while Howard is likely too big. Overall, this is going to be a very challenging series for Mason. Hopefully he's ready for it.
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Matt Bonner
Speaking of challenges, Matt Bonner is likely to be the first Spurs player to get a shot at Nowitzki. Bonner has struggled with jumpshooting bigmen with length this season -- and Nowitzki is the ultimate jumpshooting bigman with length. It'd be great if he could stay in front of Nowitzki while getting a hand up on his jumper, but that's a lot easier said than done. Chances are that Bonner won't be the one defending Nowitzki late in games. Offensively, I think any Spurs fan who has been following along this year has to be a bit worried about how Bonner will shoot. He had a very good offensive season in terms of his accuracy, however he didn't perform well most of the time in clutch situations or against great teams. Now that the playoffs are upon us, that means the pressure will be at a new high. Will Bonner be able to handle the added pressure? Let us pray.
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Bruce Bowen
A lot has changed since last year at this time in regards to Bruce Bowen. A staple in the Spurs lineup for the previous seven years, Bowen is now a bench player who gets spot minutes here and there. However, Pop has hinted at some point during the year that he may have been saving Bowen for the playoffs. We will see what Pop has in store. Even in spot minutes, Bowen would be useful because his defensive mastery can be applied to any number of Mavs including Nowitzki, Howard, Terry, Barea and maybe even Kidd. With the Mavs likely to pose a lot of problems for the Spurs on the defensive end, it wouldn't be too surprising for Bowen to find himself in a large role by the end of the series.
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Ime Udoka
Ime Udoka was once buried on the bench. Now, Pop has been using him as the team's sixth man. Since Ginobili suffered the stress fracture, Udoka has averaged 5.8 points and 4.2 rebounds in 21.7 minutes per game, while shooting 40.9% from the field and 38.1% on three-pointers. Where Udoka can help out the most against the Mavs is on the glass. He's a great rebounder for a perimeter player and if Pop is going to use small ball with Udoka at power forward, he's shown an ability to rebound like a bigman. Offensively, Udoka has been extremely streaky after beginning the season ice cold. Unlike Bowen, Udoka doesn't blend in offensively so when he's off, he's painfully off. Last year in the playoffs, he shot the ball great against the Hornets but struggled against the Suns and the Lakers. Hopefully he can shoot well against the Mavs because the Spurs can use his rebounding ability in this series.
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Kurt Thomas
Logically, Kurt Thomas should have a difficult time in this series. Nowitzki is a player that should be too quick for Thomas to defend. Even though it appears to be a losing proposition, I'd like to see Pop at least give Thomas a chance on Nowitzki. Thomas has lost weight from last season and the beginning stages of this season and is now a quicker player. He probably is not quick enough to stay with the big German but if he is, that would be a huge win for the Spurs. In the second half of the season, Thomas has played very well. His outside shots have been falling and he's been the best defensive bigman on the team since the All-Star break. Even if he can't guard Nowitzki, hopefully Thomas is in the game when Duncan is resting.
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Drew Gooden
Drew Gooden is the enigma of this series. In the month of April, he's produced for the Spurs at a stunning level. In only 22 minutes per game, he has averaged 14.4 points and 4.9 rebounds per game during the month. Offensively, there's no question that Gooden can be helpful. The Mavs don't have an abundance of quality post defenders and the ones they do have will be focused on Duncan. Gooden has scored well from the post, on the drive and from the perimeter. He's also getting to the line very frequently as of late. The huge question is whether or not he can hang defensively. With the way the Mavs play offensively, Gooden is going to have to be in constant rotation. And while he's shown a decent ability to play one-on-one defense, his team defense is extremely suspect. As good as Gooden can be offensively, he'll be a net negative unless he suddenly figures out when and where to rotate on the defensive end. That said, if Gooden can adequately guard Nowitzki and he can just concentrate on that matchup, Gooden could be the hero of the series. I don't think that will happen, but we will see.
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Fabricio Oberto
Another bigman option is Fabricio Oberto. He didn't play too much in 2006 but he has shown an ability to be a clutch performer for the Spurs. During regular season matchups, he's done a decent job on Nowitzki. Pop may opt to call on Oberto but the Argentine bigman hasn't played much as of late and his conditioning has suffered. Offensively, Oberto would be helpful against the Mavs because his interior passing ability would make it much more difficult for Dallas to play Duncan with only one defender. All in all, Oberto on paper makes sense in this series but his conditioning and the fact that he's been out of the rotation since the first week of December lessens the likelihood that he'll see significant time on the court.
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George Hill
George Hill has a few attributes that would be helpful against the Mavs. First of all, he's a good rebounder and the Spurs can never have enough good rebounders on the court against Dallas. He can also pressure the ball better defensively than anyone on the team, which would be a nice weapon to throw against Kidd. Offensively, he's shown an ability to slash to the rim and if the Mavs are solely concerned with Duncan and Parker, Hill may be able to find open lanes. Pop, however, seems intent on not playing Hill, for largely unknown reasons. For Hill to play a larger than expected role in this series, it'd likely be a case in which the Spurs are struggling and Pop is in search of a spark.
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Jacque Vaughn
I don't like the idea of using Jacque Vaughn at all in this series. The Mavs would attack him defensively and ignore him offensively. In some matchups against other teams Vaughn could be useful, but that isn't the case against Dallas. If Vaughn gets up off the bench, hopefully it is because the Spurs are coasting to a blowout victory. Otherwise, San Antonio is in trouble.
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Part 3 will focus on Pop and his coaching options during the first round series against the Mavs.
Jacque Vaughn
I don't like the idea of using Jacque Vaughn at all in this series. The Mavs would attack him defensively and ignore him offensively. In some matchups against other teams Vaughn could be useful, but that isn't the case against Dallas. If Vaughn gets up off the bench, hopefully it is because the Spurs are coasting to a blowout victory. Otherwise, San Antonio is in trouble.
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timvp, I don't know if it belong to part 3 but if Mavs goes with Dirk and 4 smalls who do you think TD will guard>
In the past we saw Pop 'hide' him Buckner and Griffin, but if the Mavs go small it would probably be Kidd, Terry, Barea or AW, Howard and Dirk.
The only option I see is Howard and that's not good. So if Mavs go ultra small TD may have to guard Dirk
Why wouldn't you have TD guard Dirk?
Because Dirk will set up shop near the FT line and drag Timmy away from the basket. Double him there and he'll hit cutters for easy layups.
pretty much. someone needs to be back there to block those barea dunks.
i will get ready to jump if he see's 5 seconds of gametime that isnt a blowout.Spurs vs. Mavs - First Round Series Preview - Part 1
Jacque Vaughn
I don't like the idea of using Jacque Vaughn at all in this series. The Mavs would attack him defensively and ignore him offensively. In some matchups against other teams Vaughn could be useful, but that isn't the case against Dallas. If Vaughn gets up off the bench, hopefully it is because the Spurs are coasting to a blowout victory. Otherwise, San Antonio is in trouble.
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Somehow I don't think that would happen, but at least it's plausible. It's the best reason I've heard not to put Duncan on Dirk. Usually the Spurs fans give that old tired line of "Dirk will foul Duncan out in ten minutes". It's all academic, if the Mavs put Dirk and 4 smalls on the court, the best way to combat that is to have Duncan dominate on the offensive end so they have to do something else.
Dirk just blows past Duncan every time.
I lol'd
Don't look now, but here's the "Duncan can't cover Dirk" original fanboy.
okay
The last thing Duncan and his knees need is to have to go cover a guy out to 3 pt range.
Exactly. If the Mavs go to the Dirk and four perimeter players look, it wouldn't really matter who Duncan defends if he can make them pay on the other end by dominating Dirk. The Mavs can't beat the Spurs if Duncan is dominating that matchup on the other end.
But yeah, in general, Duncan can't defend Dirk. In his prime, yes. If 100% healthy, maybe. With creaky knees, no way.
that's not even the main reason I don't want Duncan guarding Dirk at all..if Tim isn't down low playing D, Dallas is going to heavily attack the paint...
I believe if Duncan's knees look like they did vs. New Orleans and even in the last few games(he didn't play at a high level, but he looked fine physically), then we will win this series..
Parker and Dirk can will their teams to victory, but Duncan just has the killer instinct that legends have in the playoffs..I still remember how much he was doubted going into the 2006 playoffs due to the PF..
dirks going to score with relative ease every time he catches the ball. the best way to play him is to play ball denial and just disrupt their rhythm every time. parker is going to see just as much dirk as any other spur because the mavs run that high screen and roll and give it to dirk at the top of the key anyways.
if dirk beats us shooting fadeaway jumpers like he always does then so be it but we cant let the mavs get easy fastbreak points. thats going to be the key to stopping them.
Hey Timvp,
excellent series of previews. I thoroughly enjoyed part 1. I was thinking man this dude should take over mysanantonio writing, then I was like no, then we won't get the mul udes of updates on this site.
Dirk is the enigma we have to slow down some how. Then after Dirk its Terry. Oh wait, then Howard. Then the hobbites.
This is going to be one of a challenge.
This is why Gooden could be such an X-factor.
Not only could the Spurs exploit Dirk with Tim's post-up's when he's surrounded by four smalls, but they could also use Gooden with Duncan in stretches when the Mav's decide to go small.
I wouldn't do it exclusively, but Horry actually had some success (in stretches) spacing/zoning-up Howard, and Gooden could conceivably do the same.
The more the Spurs can get away with playing Duncan and Gooden together, the better.
The best defense against Dirk?
Foul trouble.
The best way to compete/win on the boards?
Little to no, small-ball.
I'd put Gooden in the game and force Howard to try and defend him, and play a 3-2 zone on the other end.
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