(This could take awhile)
Wasn't it inevitable?
Maybe not 3-1, but the outcome, right?
The Spurs' standard they've set for themselves, and their fans, had some feeling this series outcome would fall in their favor.
But those able to look at this team objectively?
As much as they tried to deny it, they saw this coming.
Some might say these Spurs have been snake-bit with injuries and unfortunate cir stance all year long. Other's believe this team's personnel, due to age, and or, ability, has run it's course. And then there's those who believe this season could have held considerable more promise, had the man at the helm not strayed from some of his core values; defense and continuity seeming to take a back-seat like never before.
In truth, injuries, personnel, and coaching decisions have all left an indelible mark on this season.
Ginobili starting the season in street clothes, and Tony joining him on the sidelines with an ankle injury of his own, in the early going, forced Tim to take on a load, that at this stage of his career, was probably filled with one-too-many tractor tires.
While he played more than admirably, and was statistically having one of the best years of his career (even getting mention as an M.V.P. candidate by some national pundits) one had to wonder if the toll of the early season would catch up to him at some point.
Whether it did or not, is not completely known; afterall, Tim's problems could have just as easily been the inevitable fate of a man with the amount of mileage/wear-and-tear ac ulated over the years. Either way, it proved to be another blow to a team that was already somewhat reeling.
The injuries would be bad enough in a vacuum, but the ramifications for a rotation were simply brutal.
What started as something that could be deemed a blessing in disguise, players like Mason and Hill getting valuable court-time that might've paid dividends down the road, quickly turned into a revolving door of personnel.
Revolving might not even be the right word.
Afterall, revolving implies movement, which in the case of Bowen, Udoka, and Oberto, was something Pop didn't have them doing much of for considerable stretches. But, continuity, wasn't a word to be found in the coach's vocabulary.
Not having the desired continuity early in the season is pretty par for the course considering Pop's history, but after the RRT this team usually starts to get a pretty good idea of what they have and how they'll utilize it. This year with the injuries and new player's playing vital roles, however?
Things were left as unsettled as ever.
Mason, who was widely looked upon as the steal of free-agency, at times, seemed to forget how to play the game when Manu was on the court. Hill, who had begun to show some very good promise in the absence of Parker and Ginobili, all of a sudden lost minutes and certainty, whether it be in his role or familiarity with their return. Even a guy like Hairston, who showed some very good promise for a team lacking youth and athleticism at the wing, had a stretch of being the first person off the bench before getting sent down to the D-league affiliate. Thomas, Oberto, Mahinmi, all dealing with injuries or health scares (Mahinmi, who they'd hoped would contribute, missing the entire season due to injury) kept the frontline in flux, and the late addition of Gooden, even if sorely needed, only added to the flux.
Pop did actually have some continuity, though
His starting-lineup.
For most of the season, Pop has rolled out a Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, and Duncan starting-lineup.
Those who've followed this team closely over the years, though, can only wonder how that's the one thing Pop could settle on.
Gone from the starting lineup is the defensive stalwart Bowen, and in his place...
Finley?
Gone from the starting lineup is Oberto, (or a more traditional-style big man)
and in his place...
Bonner? (I mean, yeah, he can spread the floor a little like Horry, but really? Horry may not have been the greatest rebounder in the world, and even he was a departure from the twin-tower Spurs' defenses have been predicated upon, but is there anything Bonner does, on either end of the floor, that leaves you thinking, Horry? But I digress...)
What Pop did was, for the first time at the Spurs' helm, he sacrificed defense.
Left with the feeling of a team that's defense was "good enough" to compete at the highest level, and an offense that surely was not in last year's playoffs, had him feeling that his core values, the ones in the past he'd never compromise, were finally in need of a tweak.
So the experiment, and the full commitment to said experiment, were put into action. If you're going to really make a departure in philosophy, you can't do it half-heartedly. Pop knew he had to display the trust and patience to legitimately give the new offensive lineup a chance to succeed, but you've got to figure he also knew such a commitment would be a costly gamble if it were not to work out.
Through all the rotation hysteria, injuries, etc., the Spurs still managed to win the toughest division in basketball and secure the 3-seed. And while that may not be the standard of success the Spurs' player's and fan's are accustomed to, it's success that, under the cir stance, is at least noteworthy and admirable.
So, they somewhat stumbled into the playoffs, while their counterparts were finally hitting their stride.
So, they're lacking firepower, and anything but "whole", while the Mavs seem to find a new offensive-threat every night.
So, it's 3-1 and the Spurs are on the brink.
I guess we'll all see now, if Pop's gamble pays off.
Interesting, well thought out write-up. Obviously Bowen and Hill's disappearance from any rotation will be the biggest mysteries (still don't know whether Pop was just saving Bruce knowing that he'd be fresh for the playoffs while he attempted to develop more offensive balance with the roster or what and if he wanted to see Hill in another capacity why he reduced his minutes so drastically....might never find out). Given the current state of things, what do you give our chances?
To be quite honest, nothing would suprise me.
They could get blown-out in 5, or steal it in 7.
The Spurs really have pretty much done what they've wanted to do in 3 out of the 4 games, yet they haven't seen their desired results.
I'm pretty confident they can get game 5, and if Hill can become a factor in that game, it could give the Mavs their own Barea-quandry.
Pop finally seems to be coming to his senses, in terms of personnel, so maybe if they come out and play the way they did to start game 4, and he doesn't go to Mason to give Tony a breather, they just might be able to set and maintain the tone needed to win a game up in Dallas.
Win game 5, put some pressure on the Mavs, hope that the thought of a game 7 and their recent playoff history causes them to tighten up, and maybe you can get that breakthrough win on the road.
I'm feeling optimistic, why I haven't a clue, but I'll say they've got a 45-50% chance they force a game 7.
I have the same unwarranted optimisim myself and I too think (hope) Hill gives the Mavs issues, ala Barea. I think at this point Pop is going Mason/Hill when Parker's out and Bowen/Parker/Hill for certain stretches which I didn't think would initially work offensively but actually helped to get back into the swing of things. Pressure on the Mavs is always good.To be quite honest, nothing would suprise me.
They could get blown-out in 5, or steal it in 7.
The Spurs really have pretty much done what they've wanted to do in 3 out of the 4 games, yet they haven't seen their desired results.
I'm pretty confident they can get game 5, and if Hill can become a factor in that game, it could give the Mavs their own Barea-quandry.
Pop finally seems to be coming to his senses, in terms of personnel, so maybe if they come out and play the way they did to start game 4, and he doesn't go to Mason to give Tony a breather, they just might be able to set and maintain the tone needed to win a game up in Dallas.
Win game 5, put some pressure on the Mavs, hope that the thought of a game 7 and their recent playoff history causes them to tighten up, and maybe you can get that breakthrough win on the road.
I'm feeling optimistic, why I haven't a clue, but I'll say they've got a 45-50% chance they force a game 7.
Man, this analysis is on point!!
Yeah, Hill is the better option especially when Mason isn't doing anything, he surely isn't out there for defense. Hill can bring some offense, he seems to shine with TP and Duncan. He never seems to jack up shots or have too many offensive errors.I have the same unwarranted optimisim myself and I too think (hope) Hill gives the Mavs issues, ala Barea. I think at this point Pop is going Mason/Hill when Parker's out and Bowen/Parker/Hill for certain stretches which I didn't think would initially work offensively but actually helped to get back into the swing of things. Pressure on the Mavs is always good.
THe mavs own Mason at this point. They play him close and dare him to drive, something he is not good at. Mason shouldn't get much PT this next game.
I think we know we are playing like the Lakers with Shaq and Kobe. Why not exploit it surround them with Bowen, Hill and Gooden.
Great analysis, especially the offense for defense part. Many people don't realize that this team is fundamentally different from Spurs teams of the past. Unfortunately, Mason, Bonner, Udoka, Thomas and Gooden on most nights give us absolutely nothing tangible on the court. I don't include Bruce simply because he gives a bit on the defensive end.
What it would be like if Manu and Brent were on that bench instead of Mason and Finley......
The plan might be a good one, but the wrong pieces are still in place. The plan needs more tweaking if it's going to work.
(This could take awhile
Wasn't it inevitable? Maybe not 3-1, but the outcome, right?
After losing Ginobili and trotting out the ghost of Duncan, and a weak role-playing core with no continuity--inevitable no, but likely, yes.
But those able to look at this team objectively?
Objectively, this team overachieved in the playoffs last year, and would need to do the same to contend this year. However, because of injuries, we underachieved.
And then there's those who believe this season could have held considerable more promise, had the man at the helm not strayed from some of his core values; defense and continuity seeming to take a back-seat like never before.
Pop was a genius when he could deploy the best big three in the game, and an idiot when that was no longer the case. In other fields, Bellichek never became a genius until Brady, and Shanahan until Elway + Davis.
What started as something that could be deemed a blessing in disguise, players like Mason and Hill getting valuable court-time that might've paid dividends down the road, quickly turned into a revolving door of personnel.
I'm not one to blame Pop for injuries. But his constant tinkering with rotations is tantamount to breaking an axiom of the game. It was due to desperation and perhaps an arrogance that he was above the rules.
Finley?
The biggest mystery of all.
Bonner?
A matter of trust misplaced. Perhaps he plays very well in practice.
Left with the feeling of a team that's defense was "good enough" to compete at the highest level, and an offense that surely was not in last year's playoffs, had him feeling that his core values, the ones in the past he'd never compromise, were finally in need of a tweak.
I disagree. What happened was our core defensive strengths--Duncan and Bowen, had deteriorated. The only way to compete was to throw up a lot of 3's. In a way, it's admirable the team got as far as they did with plan B--how many other teams could?
So, it's 3-1 and the Spurs are on the brink.
They have more talent, more youth, more health and things fell their way. That's the breaks.
I guess we'll all see now, if Pop's gamble pays off.
There never was a gamble; his hand was forced.
They overachieved last year if you're taking injury into account. Otherwise, I saw no reason that they couldn't have advanced to the finals.
The Lakers playing without Bynum, and having yet gained the confidence to supplant the Spurs, could have just as easily been a Spurs win. And had they met up with Boston in the finals? They would've been playing a team that they held significant experience and intangible advantages over, and a team they actually matched-up quite well with.
Duncan's knees were definitely a detriment to this team and it's overall defense, and Bowen may have lost a little off his fastball, but neither's deterioration was drastic enough to prevent the Spurs from being an elite defensive-team.
Duncan's mere presence on the defensive-end gives pause to the opposition on a night-in-night-out basis, and he still remained among the league-leaders in rebounding.
Bowen, for as exaggerated his demise has been, has shown little, to no, fall-off in his ability from last year. And last year, he was still probably in the top 3 perimeter defenders in the league.
Pop believed that no matter how good his defense was last year, and could be this year, it wasn't going to be enough to get this team past the likes of a Lakers. Keeping in mind with the long-term plans of the franchise and it's upcoming personnel decisions (i.e bridging the gap until 2010) Pop knew that he was going to have to make some "chicken salad," in the mean time. Looking at what he had on his roster, and what he could do with it while bridging the gap, he came to the conclusion that this new offensive lineup was his best, and maybe only, option to give this team a legitimate shot at a le, while the organization bided it's time.
So, maybe his hand was forced a bit.
And maybe it wasn't the type of gamble a Carter or Jefferson acquisition would have been.
But make no mistake, it was a gamble.
Very good read. I have some hope that Pops can install his values into this current playoff team and perhaps pull off the 3 games we need. While at the same time I think that the current result of the playoffs is because of an abandonment of these principles and that we are to far gone. I totally believe in the team but it's such a beast to think about. This has been one of the most difficult seasons to be a Spurs fan, but I am proud to be a Spurs fan, I will always bleed Silver and Black.
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