Here's some links for reference (will update):
ESPN's list of free agents in 2009 and 2010
NBA Salary Cap FAQ
Patricia's Various Basketball Stuff
Key issue:
"On Feb. 18, Stern authorized the dispatch of a memo to all 30 teams projecting a drop in the salary cap from $58.7 million this season to $57.3 million in 2009-10 and a subsequent drop to $56.5 million in 2010-11, with a projected decline for the luxury-tax threshold as well: $71.2 million this season to $69.4 million in 2009-10 to $68.5 million in 2010-11. "
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailyd...dime-090321-22
No one has the juevos to start the Ron Artest FA thread?
If the dollar-for-dollar tax is in place to keep teams from exceeding the luxury tax threshold, what exactly is in place to deter them from going over the salary cap?
Nothing really that I can think of except for salary limitations. If you are over the cap you can only sign FA's to the MLE and LLE and in trades you have to "match salaries".
Don't the teams that stay under the cap also get some money back?
You can be over the cap and still get luxury tax dollars. It is avoiding the luxury tax line that nets the owners the money.
Don't the teams that stay under the cap also get some money back?
the spurs better try and sign a few of the players stash in europe who they hold rights too b4 spending the MLE at someone.....
What is the biggest need in free agency. I haven't really gotten into offseason mode yet but I'd think a starting quality big has to be the top need, right?
I don't think we've seen the end of Bonner yet.
Actually the more pressing need might be at the 3 spot.It's obvious Fin shouldn't play more than 15-20 mins.
Do you think the Spurs might split their MLE? Or even not use it at all and go with Williams, Gist, Hairston, Mahinmi?
If we're using our whole MLE, I'd like to go after Marion or Odom if no team offers them more. Obviously they're kind of soft and have their flaws but would be great value for the MLE. Not sure how much of a pipedream this is, it's hard to predict whether any team would be willing to offer contracts bigger than MLE money this summer.
Last edited by BG_Spurs_Fan; 04-29-2009 at 05:16 AM.
I think the best way of figuring out what you need is first taking stock in what you already have.
For the sake of argument, let's list only the fully guaranteed contracts for next year:
Parker/Hill
Mason/Ginobili
Finley (player option, likely picked up)
Duncan/Mahinmi
Bonner/Thomas
Based on this, the Spurs don't need any guards, except maybe another backup PG. Obviously not priority one.
The top priorities have to be, then, a quality 3 (of course, when has that not been the case?) and a starting center, since most of us agree that Bonner would be more effective as a bench player with more flexible minutes based on performance.
I think who the Spurs target in free agency will be a huge sign about what they think of their existing players, particularly their non-guaranteed contracts (Bowen and Oberto). If their first target is a SF, perhaps they think Oberto or Thomas can step into the starting center role again effectively. If they target a center, perhaps they feel Bowen has another year left, and Bonner/Oberto/Thomas are potential trade chips.
Stern is now more optimistic:
http://www.columbian.com/article/200.../1001/SPORTS01
NBA Commissioner David Stern on Saturday said the league’s economic projections are looking more optimistic than initially expected, which could influence the Portland Trail Blazers’ free-agency activity this offseason if the forecast holds true.
Speaking to the media prior to Portland’s first-round playoff game against Houston, Stern said revenue may grow by "a percent or two," rather than remain flat or even fall, as the league warned its teams in February.
Stern said the salary cap — which is based on the league’s overall revenue — will "remain under pressure." But he did not expect it to fall back this summer, though he warned that revenue could still fall next season.
"They will not go up the way they were projected to go up," Stern said. "I don’t think they’re going to go down. If not next year, the year after. Or if not down, nothing like the growth that we have enjoyed."
do the Spurs have both the MLE and the LLE?
Interesting. Thanks for posting.
how about david lee? his looking at all offers?
maybe we can do a sign and trade with the knicks and get them further under the cap....
how about a hustle point/foward type of player...matt barnes.
Last edited by TDMVPDPOY; 04-29-2009 at 07:48 AM.
When you look at the info available in the sites referenced in the OP, it becomes obvious that the Spurs, since the implementation of the Luxury Tax after the 2005 CBA, have operated within a budget that is set by ownership right at the Luxury Tax limit.
The Spurs payroll in 2004-2005 was 47.2M. When the Tax came into play in 2005-2006, the Spurs increased their payroll by over 14M to take them slightly over the Tax limit. In the subsequent years the Spurs have incrementally increased payroll at almost exactly the same rate as the increases in the Tax limit. Therefore, it is logical to assume that the Spurs budget for 2009-2010 will be set at some number very close to the Tax limit.
And this is where the challenge for the FO has become more difficult each year. The salaries of the Big 3 have been increasing at a much faster rate than the Tax limit, leaving a smaller budget for the rest of the roster each year. The budget for talent outside of the Big 3 can be expressed as:
LUX TAX LIMIT minus BIG 3 SALARY equals AVAILABLE BUDGET
2005-2006 (61.7 - 31.7 = 30M)
2006-2007 (65.4 - 35.1 = 30.3M)
2007-2008 (67.9 - 38.6 = 29.3M)
2008-2009 (71.1 - 42.1 = 29M)
Since the implementation of the Tax in 2005-2006, while average NBA salaries have increased over 15%, the Spurs available budget has decreased in real dollars.
And this is where the Tax limit estimates by Stern cited by lurker23 and Bruno come into play. Stern's February estimate was a decrease to 69.4M. The most optimistic estimate in his recent remarks is a 2% increase to about 72.6M.
For the Spurs this is a huge difference. The Big 3 are on the books for 45.5M next year. So the available budget for next year will be between 23.9M and 27.1M. Either way it will be the smallest budget available for talent to support the Big 3 since the Lux Tax was implemented.
For me, that budget range of 23.9M to 27.1M is the starting point for discussion. At least 10 players must be paid from within that budget. Any potential use of the MLE or any trade must account for how you get that player and 9 others while remaining within budget.
If the discussions here are to be more than fantasy league talk, the budget must be taken into account. In the real world, the Spurs certainly will.
Awesome post, Mel_13.
Extrapolating from your information, we have $65.99 mil for 9 players under contract ( Tim, Tony, Manu, Bowen, Hill, Oberto, Kurt, Bonner, Mason ). Furthermore we have Fin ( player option, likely to be taken ) at $2.5 mil and Mahinmi ( team option ) at approximately $1 mil. This means we'll have $69.5 mil in contracts for 11 players.
If we assume the Lux Tax will be somewhere between $69.4 mil and $72.6 mil, as you stated, then it is obvious we cannot afford to offer anything from our MLE or LLE, unless we make moves, the most obvious of which are of course Bowen's and Oberto's non-guaranteed contracts.They could be very valuable in a trade to a team looking for cap relief, but trading them would be more likely around the trade deadline and not during the summer. Of course, here we assume Bowen would eventually be cut and signs a min contract with the Spurs, and that they would not be cut in the summer by the Spurs.
Another possibility to get more space is to somehow convince Finley not to take his option.
To summarize, it is very likely that the Spurs are not looking to spend any money this summer and go with the younger players they're trying to develop - Williams, Hairston and Gist.
If thats the case, and whats the likely hood of the team with that roster even competing for another championship? If you aint going to spend? might as well go ahead with the youth movement plan instead of waiting for the 2010 contingency plan.....
so by the time 2010 comes around, we have at leasts 2-3 young players, who have a couple of years nba experience to build around, instead of waiting for that big star FA to come and sign here.....
That is exactly the scenario I would place a bet on. Take a shot a growing your own role players, monitor TD and Manu, and decide if you want to make a big move at the trade deadline or preserve cap space for 2010.
full MLE - Paul Millsap
if those 3 players dont work out, we can always trade them at trade deadline....
bench 09/10 = 20.82m committed and expiring
thomas 3.8m
bowen 4.0m
mason 3.78m
bonner 3.24m
finley 2.5m
oberto 3.5
GISTS = rookie scale
sanikidz = rookie scale
williams = resign for minimum
3 players under 3m combined to replace the previous 3 players, thats a huge ass saving of what 6m in payroll....
insert javtokas for around 2-3m, no nba experience, but his probably better than most stiffs playing center in the nba.
seriously you fill out the bench with our euro rookies currently stash could save the team about 5-10m, while fielding a very compe ive team and heading for the youth movement.
Spurs need a good 3.
Trade for Jefferson, MLE on Sheed, GIST! for cheap.
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