Reply With Quote
The Spurs are not done by a longshot!!
With an aging roster and little cap space, is this the end of Spurs' decade of dominance?
By John Hollinger
End of the season … or end of an era?
It's not just that four-time champion San Antonio lost a first-round playoff series for the first time this decade Tuesday night. What's shocking is the manner in which it lost to a team that, let's face it, wasn't that good.
Perhaps the most shocking aspect of this series was the dreadful performance of the Spurs' roster, other than Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. A decade of drafting 27th will do that to you. San Antonio's supporting cast was so ineffective Dallas couldn't guard the Spurs' best player and it didn't matter.
Worse yet, two of the Spurs' three stars had physical problems this season, and one wonders how they will affect the club's fortunes going forward. Manu Ginobili missed half the season with ankle injuries. While he's still capable of playing at an extremely high level, he's no longer somebody you can pencil in for 80 games.
More worrying, perhaps, are Duncan's knee problems. With 30 points Tuesday, he showed he still can be a capable player even with the injury. The problem is, this isn't an "injury" so much as a chronic condition, and it's limiting his ability to be a defensive dominator. He blocked one shot a game over his final 20 contests this season, after averaging well more than two for his career, and his rebounding also has slipped.
One would like to think help is on the way. For the Spurs, help always has been on the way. Over the past decade, San Antonio has been far and away the best-managed organization in sports, and nobody doubts it can conjure up some magic to remain among the league's elite for a while longer.
Unfortunately, two years ago, the Spurs made a bet that the current group could last through 2010 by re-signing several veteran players to contracts that expire after next season. The Spurs already are well over next season's cap level with their commitments to Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Roger Mason, Matt Bonner, Fabricio Oberto, Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Kurt Thomas, Ian Mahinmi and George Hill. In fact, they're near the luxury tax threshold just with that group.
So forget about any free-agent bonanza coming to the rescue. About the best the Spurs can do is tinker around the edges by buying out the partially guaranteed deals of Bowen and Oberto and using their midlevel exception. They won't have a first-round pick to supplement the roster, either. That was traded to Oklahoma City a season ago for Thomas.
Thus, the Spurs are left with the vexing question of how to get better with a roster that's so long in the tooth. Duncan is 33 and Ginobili is 31, and around them are only more graybeards: Bowen (37), Finley (36), Thomas (36), Oberto (34) and Jacque Vaughn (34).
Even the new guys aren't exactly spring chickens. Bonner is 29, Mason is 28 and Ime Udoka is 31 (it's still debatable whether the Spurs will choose to re-sign him). Parker and Hill are the only current rotation players on the good side of 27.
In particular, it appears the Spurs need some help in the frontcourt to supplement Duncan. For much of the season, they played with only one true big man, as 3-point ace Bonner started at power forward alongside Duncan. The result was the Spurs' worst defensive season of the Duncan era, as they finished "only" sixth in defensive efficiency instead of their usual perch in the top three. And when Duncan checked out, the likes of Thomas and Oberto proved insufficient to hold down the fort in the middle.
Help might be on the way, but probably not as soon as the Spurs would like. Former first-round pick Ian Mahinmi hardly played as a result of injuries but could earn a rotation spot next season. However, he's seen as a project. A higher-level upgrade might await in Europe, where the Spurs still own the rights to Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter, but he seems unlikely to cross the pond until a year from now.
The goods news for San Antonio is that from 2010 on, it is in as strong a position as any team in the league. Duncan and Parker are the only players under contract, and the Spurs should be far enough under the cap to make a run at one of the several major free agents, such as native Texan Chris Bosh.
The issue, however, is what they can do in the meantime. The Spurs' roster issues are deep enough that it's fair to question whether they can be a serious contender in 2009-10. And if they can't, the next fair question is how much that will hurt their standing with prospective free agents a season later.
This much is clear: Without a major infusion of talent and youth at some point in the next two years, the Spurs' quasi-dynasty of the past decade will come crashing to an end. We've had it in the back of our minds for a while, but this series, and Tuesday night's game in particular, hammered that point up to the front.
The Spurs are not done by a longshot!!
I kinda agree that the Spurs seem better equipped to make a le run in 2010-2011 than 2009-2010.
Nice article and very well written, of course spurm fans will not agree with Hollinger but then again who gives a what these filthy fans think.
You are Done, Duncan is getting older and I've got news for you, Duncan will be 2 years older by the time the 2009-2010 tips off.
The Spurms have no future whatsoever...years of mediocrity are just in front of them.
UR RUN NEVER BEGAN YOU GOT, enjoy your 0 les.... Spurs own your team, eat a fukkin dyk. Ur team is DONE forever.
They were done as of last season. Death by Lakers.
Hmmm? Let's see the Suns are still contenders?
Spurs are fine. This season, the weaknesses of the Spurs were painfully clear. Now the FO should know without question what the team needs. I think they will be pretty strong next season.
???????????????????
They will retool and be back, just when you think that shyts over for them thats when it begins! They will have another run at a le.
?
Here's my take
http://acrossallsports.com/2009/04/2...s-season-over/
I think that drawing these dire conclusions from the end of a single season is premature.
First Hollinger says the Spurs were beaten by a team that's "not that good". Wrong -- the Mavs are peaking at exactly the right time. For some reason they've got huge chemistry and momentum going right now. They are confident and playing loose and with energy. Look at their record at the end of the season for proof. They were out of the playoffs and put on a big run to finish. Watch them vs. Denver (another team on a role) and you'll see. It would not surprise me one bit for Dallas to beat them in 6 -- win one in Denver, take two in Dallas, lose in Denver, then win it at home.
Second, the Spurs had a perfect storm of trouble at the end of the season. Manu got shut down. Tim is at 65%. All of the role players just disappeared, no one stepped up. Parker did as much as you could ask one point guard to do but it wasn't enough.
Now, Tim gets an extra 6 weeks off to heal. Manu will get better. The Spurs corporate knowledge will come together with the role players and educate them using this playoff loss as a motivator.
I really think that if they are healthy going into the playoffs next year, they have a good shot at getting to the WCF and contending for a spot in the Finals.
You do, clearly.
lol Hollinger.
Well, at least you got the handle right........
Uh, has Hollinger been paying attention? Since when could anyone ever pencil in Ginobili for 80 games? If he plays more than 70 games in a season, that's a plus.
And as long as the Big 3 is together for 70 or so games next year, they'll win 54-56 games in their sleep during the regular season. There's no worries about the playoffs. This year's team won 54 games with Manu out for most of the year, Duncan hurt the second half of the year, Parker not blossoming until the second half of the season and Michael Finley and Matt Bonner starting. Healthy and with any two live bodies in place of Finley and Bonner, the Spurs will be totally fine in the regular season.
The rest of his article is somewhat right. The Spurs are at a weird point. They need to do something to give themselves a shot until the summer of 2010 but doing so while sticking with the 2010 hopes will be difficult. However, they may find something now from a team looking to dump salary that is worth cashing in the 2010 plan early.
Hollinger fails to realize how good it is to have so many expiring contracts and half-guaranteed contracts. A lot of teams that want to dump long-term salary will be calling the Spurs. The Spurs could opt to take a long-term hit for a short-term boost. For example, if a player like Vince Carter is to be salary dumped, the Spurs have the assets. I don't know of many teams that can allow a team to salary dump a max deal and has the motivation to do so.
The flexibility begins this summer. It will come down to how the Spurs plan to make their splash. Between now and the end of next summer, they are going to be after big names and they have the needed bait. The hope now is to actually land a player who can extend the window.
totally agree. the point will be, are the conservative Spurs willing to make such a move. if yes, Vince won't be the only option. (btw. the numbers of his contract are huge, but his last year isn't fully guaranteed. "only" 4 million are. makes it a little less difficult to swallow).
if it isn't VC, there is a good chance that the Bucks need to put either Jefferson or Redd on the market for dump contracts. they are deep in lux tax territory, but would need to find 7-8 new players plus re sign Charly V. a package of Bowen, Fab and Mason could bring back Jefferson. they would dump almost 7 million immediately (even more if they pay lux tax) and save another 15 from Jefferson's next years contract.
similar scenarios we could see with Caron Butler or Jamison.
btw. even Elton Brand might be available in a pure dump move.
While it is true that a lot of good players with not so friendly contracts will be available for expirings, I would only expect such a move from the Spurs around the trade deadline and only if they have given up on Manu being healthy and elite again. There is no way the Spurs go deep into lux tax territory and no way to keep 4 players with big contracts after 2010.
They could get a Vince Carter and still get under the lux tax ... both this year and into the future.
The role players would have to cost less but it's certainly possible. Manu's contract going forward is also a wildcard that can be altered to open room.
Responding to various points in the thread:
It would be easier for the Spurs to trade expiring contracts to acquire good players than it would be to attract free agents to play with a declining Tim Duncan near the end of his career in an outpost like San Antonio. This summer is really the summer to get things done; it's now or never.
The Spurs really do have to accomplish a ton this summer. Their entire frontcourt rotation, 3 through 5, starters and reserves, around Tim Duncan must be replaced. Maybe Matt Bonner could stick around as the fifth big. That's it. Claiming that "the Spurs are fine" is simply shoving one's head in the sand.
The Mavs are not that good. Even if they are "peaking at the right time," their peak is not that high. This Mavs team is a s of the 2005-2007 Mavs teams. The Western Conference this year basically has one elite team: the Lakers. The rest of the playoff qualifiers are scrappy equals the caliber of which in previous years rarely made it out of the first round. The Spurs did not just lose to the 2006 Mavericks. They just lost to a team that one of the championship Spurs teams would have beaten 4-1.
The Spurs shot their wad winning 54 games, but at the end, they really were only the 8th best team in the West. I think they would have beaten New Orleans, but in a hypothetical matchup with non-qualifier Phoenix, they would have lost. This really was a weak Spurs team with little competence on offense or defense outside the Big 3. We should not delude ourselves into thinking had cir stances been different, this team could have contended.
One key component about how many games the Spurs might win next year is belief. The Spurs have always maintained a lot of confidence they would be there at the end, because for so long they always have been. If they go into next year with a lot of the same has-beens and never-weres, you wonder whether they'll really believe in themselves or be able to trust one another. Will you make that pass to a decrepit, antediluvian Finley when you know he'll either clang the shot, feebly fumble the ball out of bounds, or throw it right to the other team for a breakaway dunk? Will you sacrifice the body on defense knowing that Drew Gooden will be off in never-never land and his man will get an easy layup? Teams can fall apart pretty quickly when that doubt sets in. I don't think if the Spurs trot out the same garbage around the Big 3 they did this year that they'll sleepwalk to 55 wins. I think the Big 3 will start to lose heart a little, and the Spurs will replay their 1983-84 season, and that will be the end.
It won't be easy to rebuild on the fly. We can take solace in knowing the Spurs have done it before, but it will be even tougher this time. After the 1999-2000 season, they patched things together with veterans for a year, then started hitting jackpot after jackpot with major players: Bowen, Parker, Stephen Jackson, Ginobili. The difference is that back then Tim Duncan was at his absolute MVP peak; now he's aging with a bum knee. In 2001-02, without Duncan the Spurs would have been a deep-lottery team; with him they won 58 games and tested the Lakers. That margin for error is not there now. Also, the Spurs aren't head and shoulders above the rest of the league like they were in international scouting nine years ago. Chances are slim, but they're not zero... yet.
There can be no 2010 plan. 2010 is too late. If the Spurs waltz into next season with the likes of Michael Finley and Matt Bonner and Kurt Thomas called upon to be major players, then they'll flirt with the lottery, and the summer of 2010 will be the summer of goodbyes. The Spurs promised Tim Duncan they would be able to contend every year as long as he was here. Don't count on his being so comfortable in San Antonio that he won't ask for a trade if they give him another supporting cast to deal with, and if he asks for one, don't doubt that Pop has enough respect for him to grant him his wish even if he gets 40 cents on the dollar back.
As Spurs fans, we all have known that this is not a young team. Even knowing that, it's still shocking to me to actually read it in print just how old this roster is. Sort of like walking past the mirror one day and suddenly realizing you've gained 20 lbs. You ask yourself "how did this happen" or "how did it come to this?" And this is after watching the FO take a couple of steps to improve the roster this previous offseason. Should anyone be surprised that this was reflected in the downward spiral of the Spurs defensive efficiency this past season?
Having the Big Three healthy and active will usually dictate the team's success next season. Yet this recent playoff decline is evidence that the roster is deficient in several areas. It also serves notice that the supporting cast is long overdue for some serious upgrades. While I don't believe the picture is as bleak as Hollinger tries to paint it, this is certainly a critical decision period for the Spurs FO. Whatever decisions they make this summer will have a dual impact. It will affect whether the championship window stays open for another year and it will ultimately impact the direction of the so-called 2010 plan.
i don't know what i want more... 2009-2010 le or a bunch of money for the 2010 offseason. hmmm...
Thank you. That's exactly how I feel. We all knew that winning a le wasn't likely but to lose to a Dallas team that lacks character and chemistry was the most surprising thing of all. We just didn't have the talent after Tony and Tim to make baskets or stops.
Dallas will get their asses handed to them in the next round. JJ Barea ???
Why the does Chris Bosh's name keep getting brought up ? That dude sucks for the amount of money he would cost. Not good value.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
