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It seems unlikely now. But who knows what will happen between now and 2012?
Let's see. Buchanan challenged Bush in 92. Kennedy challenged Carter in 80. Reagan challenged Ford in 76. Kennedy challenged LBJ in 68.
I might be wrong, so verify.
And midterm elections are just around the corner. Despite his national security and foreign policy centrism---for the moment, at least---Obama has done enough on the domestic front to anger conservatives.
If he abandons his base, he may face a fate similar to Bush. His current popularity may be temporary and superficial.
It seems unlikely now. But who knows what will happen between now and 2012?
Let's see. Buchanan challenged Bush in 92. Kennedy challenged Carter in 80. Reagan challenged Ford in 76. Kennedy challenged LBJ in 68.
I might be wrong, so verify.
^^^ Seems right on to me.
None of the challengers were successful. Kennedy might have been in 1968. It's hard to imagine Obama being more unpopular with Dems than LBJ in 1968, but it could happen.
A primary challenge is definitely an unlikely scenario. I think, at the moment, Obama is positioning himself well, politically. It could backfire, though.
He could alienate his base. As discussed, he's now pursuing many of Bush's national security and foreign policies, while pretending he's different. Thinking people on the Left will not be fooled. Sure, he's promised to close Guantanamo, but when will it happen? Sure, he's promised more openness and dialogue with America's adversaries, but has there been any follow-through?
An alienated---or even diminished---base translates into electoral defeats. This is not currently a problem for Obama. I am eagerly anticipating the political climate in 2010.
What Obama's (admittedly young) Presidency is proving beyond a shadow of doubt is something most everyone has known for awhile.
There is no difference between a Republican or a Democrat, unless consonant order is politically important to you.
America's problems, direction and policy are far too grand and overarching to be confined to 8 years, much less 4.
Nothing changes, nothing will ever change. Obama got an eye and ear-full of threat reports and decided "Hey, Bush was right! He just went about selling it to the American people the wrong way!"
Big ing whoopety-doo. Its much, MUCH too early to stand in judgement of Obama's presidency, but his is shaping up to be just like any other.
Status quo, SOP, corporate hack, sell out the middle class, kick the can as far as one possibly can down the road, etc.
Ho-hum, nothing changes. No sobering speeches about impending bankruptcy, no announcement of a shift in government spending and state spending. No talk of social security, no talk of deficit, no talk of any of the realities this country is faced with in real terms. Only eloquent and succinct statements like "Its going to get worse before it gets better."
Really? No , Sherlock. Any other introspective gems of wisdom you care to share, or are we still high-fiving each other because we elected a minority President?
Honestly, I am utterly unimpressed with Obama. If is still status quo come this time next year, then hes another puppet. A stooge, a ing spineless do-nothing.
Act perpetrated by a government officially - Act of War
Act perpetrated by lone actors that come from a country - Criminal Act
For example: Did Timoty McVeigh start some sort of war, or commit a criminal act?
No way the Left won't reelect Obama. He's probably much better than any wingnut the Right will put up.
However, I fully expect moderates in strong blue counties to get primaried by those who are for keeping our treaty obligations, not torturing, are against invasion of privacy with warrantless wiretaps, and other things the Loony Radical Lefties like myself are backing.
The question is going to be how many still self-identify as Democrats or Republicans in the next election.
That dynamic is changing as we type.
I'm for keeping treaty obligations.
I'm opposed to torture.
I'm against invasion of Americans' privacy.
I'm opposed to warrantless wiretaps of Americans.
What does that make me?
Are you for or against the ability to warrantless wire tap within our country? (ie. calls that originate and end within CONUS)
Are you opposed to waterboarding, extreme temperatures, or prolonged use of sensory overload/deprivation?
Are you for or against some form of legal recognition for gay couples, either civil unions or gay marriage?
Are you for or against nation building?
I think these are going to be the questions that split older Democrats from younger ones.
How is it changing?
What are the numbers to support your contention it is changing?
Probably these numbers
http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...dest_ever.html
What's wrong with these numbers, Manny?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx
They pretty much show a dead heat.
Right.... sure is a dead heat!
THIS month. But if you look at that link you posted, Dems have had a small to sizable advantage for quite awhile. So either Republicans are getting popular again, or it's a statistical outlier. But for the past 6 months or so, self-identification has leaned towards the Democrats.
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