5-22-09
Bill Simmons Mailbag
Q: Can you please explain your asinine trade suggestion from your 5/20 chat that the Spurs should throw away Duncan's last chance at a le by trading Tony Parker to Minnesota? I just want to make sure you're the dumbest writer on ESPN.com.
-- Anthony, El Paso, Texas
SG: Sure. I'll even go with Hubie Brown's second-person hypothetical tense for you.
OK, you're San Antonio. Your Duncan window is closing and so is your chance to contend. You're in NBA no-man's-land, a little like Utah from 1999-2002: 45-50 wins guaranteed, no real chance of contending, no way of getting better because they spent too many years picking at the bottom of the first round. So what do you do? You can't trade Duncan; he's an icon and has to finish his career in San Antonio. You can't get fair value for Ginobili because of his injuries and because he's an expiring contract. Your best trade chip is Parker, a good character guy coming off a career year. He's also your most replaceable guy: a gifted scorer who can't shoot 3s, isn't a traditional point guard and struggles to defend certain points. You only need to replace him with someone who can provide 80 percent of his numbers and you'll be OK. You also need to turn him into multiple pieces.
Now, you're Minnesota. You have three keepers: Al Jefferson, Kevin Love and Randy Foye. (Note: I still like Corey Brewer but let's see how he recovers from his ACL injury.) You are a joke of a franchise with an owner who has one of the poorest reputations in the league and a fan base that doesn't care, namely because you hire failed GMs and coaches, recycle them, then expect the fans to care. Jefferson could be the best guy on a contender, Love could be the third-best guy and Foye could be a starter or a sixth man. But you're not winning anything if that's your top three. Too young, not quite talented enough. You need to acquire an experienced blue-chipper who can show everyone else the way (shades of Ray Allen and KG in Boston). And you have no chance of landing a marquee free agent because NBA players want no part of Sota when they can play for a well-run franchise in a warm city. Thanks anyway.
So what do you do? You have to bowl someone over with a big-time offer. That's why you call San Antonio and say, "We'll give you Foye, our No. 6 pick and Brian Cardinal's 2010 expiring contract for Parker." Note: The deal can't work until July 1.
OK, you're San Antonio again. Foye is a scoring point guard like Parker (his January/February splits: 27 games, 19.3 PPG, 40 percent 3FG), he's four years younger, he's a quality 3-point shooter, he's on the books for cheap ($8.3 million combined in '10 and '11), and between Foye and George Hill, you have a shot of replacing nearly all of Parker's numbers. Plus, you're adding the sixth pick and some much-needed young blood (maybe swingman James Harden, power forward Jordan Hill or shooter Stephen Curry); you'd have $27 million of expiring deals (Cardinal, Bruce Bowen, Fabby Oberto, Kurt Thomas, Matt Bonner and Roger Mason) for a possible mega-trade during the season; and you're selling high on Parker, who will never have more value than he does right now. You're telling me that trade doesn't make sense?
(Well, it makes sense to everyone but Parker and Eva Longoria, who just read the last few paragraphs screaming, "Nooooooooo! Noooooooooooo!!!!!")
Look, the biggest mistake fading contenders make is not audibling near the end of the run, when they can turn an expensive chess piece into multiple guys and an infusion of young blood. The Celtics had a chance to deal Kevin McHale (just a tad past his prime) for Sam Perkins and Detlef Schrempf in the late '80s and wouldn't do it; they could have headed into the '90s with a nucleus of Reggie Lewis, Perkins, Schrempf, Danny Ainge, Robert Parish and Larry Bird. Instead, they played the loyalty card with McHale and made the fatal mistake of dealing Ainge for Joe Kleine and Easy Ed Pinckney. You should only be loyal to franchise guys in a 30-team league. Everyone else is expendable. That's how the Spurs should be thinking. If they want to breathe new life into the Duncan era, Parker is the play. Sincerely, the dumbest writer on ESPN.com.
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