Reply With Quote
Gooden not mentioned?
(Who in the is this, "L.J. Ellis?")
How Should the Spurs Spend Their MLE?
L.J. Ellis has written a superb breakdown of the top big men free agents available to the Spurs. I’m with him, and the majority of our commenters, in naming Rasheed Wallace the most attractive free agent available. I’d rank Antonio McDyess just behind Wallace, but beyond those two I’d think carefully about resourcing a significant chunk of their MLE for another traditional big. This might come as a surprise to some, but let me explain.
The Consensus
The prevalent assumption is that the Spurs will target a big with their MLE. Looking at their roster, it’s clear that their front court is a big man short after the trade that dealt both Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto for Richard Jefferson. Around the draft, members of the front office indicated that San Antonio would target a big with their exception money. Come Wednesday, we’ll learn what player they have in mind.
The current frontcourt is Tim Duncan, Matt Bonner, Ian Mahinmi, DeJuan Blair and James Gist (not yet signed, only rumored). Or, put differently, one All-Time great, one role player, and three promising, but uncertain young players. The Spurs would benefit by adding a proven veteran to the mix, especially considering that the best teams in the league feature Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. The best way to attack these players is to draw them away from the rim, forcing them to chase guys off the arc, or make them run through a gauntlet of screen and rolls. Clearly Wallace can do those things, and his length and defensive chops match up nicely with the Pau Gasol’s of the world.
The argument in favor of Rasheed Wallace is convincing. If the Spurs are able to land Wallace, they should do it. Let’s call this Plan A.
A Forgotten Consideration
The only drawback to chasing Rasheed Wallace is the question of contract length. In an ideal situation, the Spurs would sign Wallace to the full MLE for only one year. But it’s hard to imagine Sheed agreeing to such an offer. He’ll want a two or three year deal, no doubt. The reason contract length concerns me is Tiago Splitter.
The Spurs have taken gigantic steps forward this offseason transforming into a younger, more athletic version of themselves. They can continue this trend by adding Tiago Splitter next offseason, but he’ll cost a fair chunk of the MLE. He turns 25 next January, so this seems like a more prudent way to tie up their long term money. If the Spurs sign Sheed to a multi-year deal now, it could jeopardize their ability to sign Splitter later. Aside from the difficulty of committing so much money to the front court, the Spurs may not be an attractive option to Splitter if they can’t offer him significant minutes.
If the Spurs simply let Matt Bonner drop at the end of next season, is that enough? I’m not sure.
I understand that the Spurs won’t, and shouldn’t, put championship 5 on hold for the potential of signing Tiago Splitter later, but he’s still an important consideration.
Thinking Outside the Box
Because of this, I’d like to suggest a contingency plan. The Spurs should not commit themselves to a second rate big (read: Nesterovic), especially at the cost of the full MLE. Instead, they should target a combo forward who can split time behind Jefferson or alongside Duncan at the 4.
The combo forwards I have in mind are (in order) Lamar Odom, Marvin Williams, and Charlie Villanueva. These three players–in their varying degrees of availability–should be more appealing to the Spurs than many of the bigs available. If the Spurs were to follow the contingency route, they’d still need to plug their hole in the middle. I’ll address that in a moment.
Lamar Odom
J.A. Adande recently offered this assessment:
The reality is a team that is looking to spend money could use the midlevel exception of approximately $5.6 million in starting annual salary to make an offer to Ariza, although folks in the league expect the Lakers to retain him. Meanwhile, a Western Conference executive believes “if you’re in position to use the full midlevel for a couple of years, you’ll get [Odom].”
While Odom is more of a 3 than a 4, permanently moving Duncan to the 5 and allowing Odom to start next door is a workable option for San Antonio. The Spurs could play Odom at both forward positions, allowing him his due playing time while providing rest for Richard Jefferson and run for DeJuan Blair and Ian Mahinmi.
Odom is also uniquely interesting because of his ball handling ability. The Spurs could run small or big with as many as four ball handlers on the court at one time. Pop has done this in the past, but always by running an undersized wing at 4. Odom would allow Coach Popovich to run occasional micro ball sets, but with a player who isn’t so micro.
Best of all, Odom in a Spurs uniform is better than Odom in a Lakers uniform. The Spurs get a little bit better, and the Lakers get a little bit worse.
Marvin Williams
Williams is both restricted and less of a star than Odom, but he’s a great player that would fit nicely in San Antonio. He has a good midrange game, emerging three point range, and isn’t a primadonna who needs the ball. I don’t doubt that he could accept a 5th man role without complaint.
The most intriguing thing about Williams is his age. At 23, he’s still a few years away from his peak, but he’s improved his game with each season in the league. In terms of transitioning to the next generation, Williams has the right game and age to stick in San Antonio for several years. This will sound funny, but he could be groomed as Richard Jefferson’s eventual replacement.
The problem, of course, is that Williams is an above average defender against wings and occasional points, not big forwards. He could guard some power forwards effectively, such as LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Dirk Nowitzki. But his defense against a more imposing post player would put the Spurs at a disadvantage. The other side of this, however, is that Gregg Popovich could throw all sorts of Nellie-like small ball sets at the opposition by running Williams at the 4. For every unfavorable match up, Pop could create one to the Spurs’ advantage. He could play small and quick with the 6′10” Williams. That beats Mike Finley or Ime Udoka at the 4.
And, it should be noted, despite his thin frame, Williams is an excellent rebounding wing. Spurs fans know that Ime Udoka was effective on the boards, even when playing out of position at the 4. Williams’ per minute board numbers mirror Udoka’s. Plus, Williams is a natural catch and shoot player with tremendous defensive length. By splitting his time at both forward positions, it would be easy to get him 25 – 30 mpg.
Charlie Villanueva
The downside to Villanueva is three-fold. First, his defense is mediocre. He wants to be offensive option one or two, and the Spurs would want him as a 5th or 6th option. And he’s not nearly as good a three point shooter as he thinks. The upside? He can score from all over the floor and would punish defenses who slacked off him or over committed elsewhere. The opposing defense would have to account for him. This is how L.J. Ellis put it:
If the Spurs want to go after a young player who could blossom into a star, Villanueva is a good choice. Though he’s more of a small forward, he could get away with playing power forward on the Spurs.
At 6-foot-11, Villanueva is a capable rebounder, picks up a decent amount of blocks and steals, and has improved his passing over the last year. However, where he shines is offensively. He put up 16.2 points per game this past season in only 26.9 minutes per game.
Villanueva can shoot from the perimeter, score around the basket and knock down the mid-range jumper. When it comes to scoring, sky is the limit for him.
The Associated Press is reporting that the Bucks will not make an offer Villanueva. He is available.
The Remaining Problem
The combo forward contingency allows the Spurs to add long term talent to their roster . And, in terms of assets, it allows the Spurs to stockpile a bunch of tradable parts in the event their 2009 reload misfires. Good and good. Still, how much can the Spurs reasonably expect from Mahinmi and Blair. They would still need to add an inexpensive but reliable traditional big to the front court.
As a matter of conjecture, here’s my best guess at the coming roster:
Parker/Hill/McClinton;
Ginobili/Mason/Finley;
Jefferson/Hairston/Williams;
MLE/Blair/Gist
Duncan/Mahinmi/Bonner
So, either Hairston, Gist, Williams or McClinton would not make next year’s team. There is plenty of roster flexibility to add a big, but it would come at the cost of a young prospect. So who would the Spurs target?
Fabricio Oberto is the obvious choice, but represents the last generation not the next. Not all bad. Tim Duncan is last generation too. Oberto knows the system. After Fab Oberto, I wonder about Dwayne Jones, who stood out last season with the Toros. Jones is a scrappy player. He’s great on the boards and could play if the Spurs were in a pinch. Robertas Javtokas?
Talent is Talent
Ultimately, I think the Spurs shouldn’t limit themselves to a traditional big, although prioritizing one makes sense. If Wallace or McDyess are not available, making a run at a combo forward and waiting a year on Splitter seems like a prudent back up plan. That’s my rationale, at least. My free agent wish list is ordered something more along the lines of Wallace, Odom, McDyess, Williams, Varajao, Villanueva, Pachulia, Nesterovic, and Gortat.
The Spurs already have their plan in place. And they’ll unveil it soon enough.
http://www.48minutesof .com/2009/...end-their-mle/
Gooden not mentioned?
Finleyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
Give this man the MLE !!!!!!
Shouldda just tacked this into the big man thread.
Why? When you can turn it into another bash Finley thread?
A little clarification please:They can continue this trend by adding Tiago Splitter next offseason, but he’ll cost a fair chunk of the MLE.
I know that the Spurs will be able to pay as much as the MLE will allow for Splitter next year, but would they actually be using their MLE, or just the equivalent amount?
Lets give this guy an extension too.
I also like the idea of adding a combo forward. However, that really should ONLY be an option if they cannot get Rasheed.
Duncan is really a center listed as PF. So in reality it doesn't matter who is lined up next to him if its a PF/C. I think Dejuan Blair is gonna be excellent when on the floor with Duncan next year. Blair being all of 6'7 has the mentality and strength allowing him to essentially play the 5.
If the Spurs were able to sign someone like Villanueve or Marvin Williams, Blair and Mahinmi would essentially be the center.
http://www.48minutesof .com/2009/...end-their-mle/
How Should the Spurs Spend Their MLE?
Jump to Comments
L.J. Ellis has written a superb breakdown of the top big men free agents available to the Spurs. I’m with him, and the majority of our commenters, in naming Rasheed Wallace the most attractive free agent available. I’d rank Antonio McDyess just behind Wallace, but beyond those two I’d think carefully about resourcing a significant chunk of their MLE for another traditional big. This might come as a surprise to some, but let me explain.
The Consensus
The prevalent assumption is that the Spurs will target a big with their MLE. Looking at their roster, it’s clear that their front court is a big man short after the trade that dealt both Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto for Richard Jefferson. Around the draft, members of the front office indicated that San Antonio would target a big with their exception money. Come Wednesday, we’ll learn what player they have in mind.
The current frontcourt is Tim Duncan, Matt Bonner, Ian Mahinmi, DeJuan Blair and James Gist (not yet signed, only rumored). Or, put differently, one All-Time great, one role player, and three promising, but uncertain young players. The Spurs would benefit by adding a proven veteran to the mix, especially considering that the best teams in the league feature Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. The best way to attack these players is to draw them away from the rim, forcing them to chase guys off the arc, or make them run through a gauntlet of screen and rolls. Clearly Wallace can do those things, and his length and defensive chops match up nicely with the Pau Gasol’s of the world.
The argument in favor of Rasheed Wallace is convincing. If the Spurs are able to land Wallace, they should do it. Let’s call this Plan A.
A Forgotten Consideration
The only drawback to chasing Rasheed Wallace is the question of contract length. In an ideal situation, the Spurs would sign Wallace to the full MLE for only one year. But it’s hard to imagine Sheed agreeing to such an offer. He’ll want a two or three year deal, no doubt. The reason contract length concerns me is Tiago Splitter.
The Spurs have taken gigantic steps forward this offseason transforming into a younger, more athletic version of themselves. They can continue this trend by adding Tiago Splitter next offseason, but he’ll cost a fair chunk of the MLE. He turns 25 next January, so this seems like a more prudent way to tie up their long term money. If the Spurs sign Sheed to a multi-year deal now, it could jeopardize their ability to sign Splitter later. Aside from the difficulty of committing so much money to the front court, the Spurs may not be an attractive option to Splitter if they can’t offer him significant minutes.
If the Spurs simply let Matt Bonner drop at the end of next season, is that enough? I’m not sure.
I understand that the Spurs won’t, and shouldn’t, put championship 5 on hold for the potential of signing Tiago Splitter later, but he’s still an important consideration.
Thinking Outside the Box
Because of this, I’d like to suggest a contingency plan. The Spurs should not commit themselves to a second rate big (read: Nesterovic), especially at the cost of the full MLE. Instead, they should target a combo forward who can split time behind Jefferson or alongside Duncan at the 4.
The combo forwards I have in mind are (in order) Lamar Odom, Marvin Williams, and Charlie Villanueva. These three players–in their varying degrees of availability–should be more appealing to the Spurs than many of the bigs available. If the Spurs were to follow the contingency route, they’d still need to plug their hole in the middle. I’ll address that in a moment.
Lamar Odom
J.A. Adande recently offered this assessment:
The reality is a team that is looking to spend money could use the midlevel exception of approximately $5.6 million in starting annual salary to make an offer to Ariza, although folks in the league expect the Lakers to retain him. Meanwhile, a Western Conference executive believes “if you’re in position to use the full midlevel for a couple of years, you’ll get [Odom].”
While Odom is more of a 3 than a 4, permanently moving Duncan to the 5 and allowing Odom to start next door is a workable option for San Antonio. The Spurs could play Odom at both forward positions, allowing him his due playing time while providing rest for Richard Jefferson and run for DeJuan Blair and Ian Mahinmi.
Odom is also uniquely interesting because of his ball handling ability. The Spurs could run small or big with as many as four ball handlers on the court at one time. Pop has done this in the past, but always by running an undersized wing at 4. Odom would allow Coach Popovich to run occasional micro ball sets, but with a player who isn’t so micro.
Best of all, Odom in a Spurs uniform is better than Odom in a Lakers uniform. The Spurs get a little bit better, and the Lakers get a little bit worse.
Marvin Williams
Williams is both restricted and less of a star than Odom, but he’s a great player that would fit nicely in San Antonio. He has a good midrange game, emerging three point range, and isn’t a primadonna who needs the ball. I don’t doubt that he could accept a 5th man role without complaint.
The most intriguing thing about Williams is his age. At 23, he’s still a few years away from his peak, but he’s improved his game with each season in the league. In terms of transitioning to the next generation, Williams has the right game and age to stick in San Antonio for several years. This will sound funny, but he could be groomed as Richard Jefferson’s eventual replacement.
The problem, of course, is that Williams is an above average defender against wings and occasional points, not big forwards. He could guard some power forwards effectively, such as LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Dirk Nowitzki. But his defense against a more imposing post player would put the Spurs at a disadvantage. The other side of this, however, is that Gregg Popovich could throw all sorts of Nellie-like small ball sets at the opposition by running Williams at the 4. For every unfavorable match up, Pop could create one to the Spurs’ advantage. He could play small and quick with the 6′10” Williams. That beats Mike Finley or Ime Udoka at the 4.
And, it should be noted, despite his thin frame, Williams is an excellent rebounding wing. Spurs fans know that Ime Udoka was effective on the boards, even when playing out of position at the 4. Williams’ per minute board numbers mirror Udoka’s. Plus, Williams is a natural catch and shoot player with tremendous defensive length. By splitting his time at both forward positions, it would be easy to get him 25 – 30 mpg.
Charlie Villanueva
The downside to Villanueva is three-fold. First, his defense is mediocre. He wants to be offensive option one or two, and the Spurs would want him as a 5th or 6th option. And he’s not nearly as good a three point shooter as he thinks. The upside? He can score from all over the floor and would punish defenses who slacked off him or over committed elsewhere. The opposing defense would have to account for him. This is how L.J. Ellis put it:
If the Spurs want to go after a young player who could blossom into a star, Villanueva is a good choice. Though he’s more of a small forward, he could get away with playing power forward on the Spurs.
At 6-foot-11, Villanueva is a capable rebounder, picks up a decent amount of blocks and steals, and has improved his passing over the last year. However, where he shines is offensively. He put up 16.2 points per game this past season in only 26.9 minutes per game.
Villanueva can shoot from the perimeter, score around the basket and knock down the mid-range jumper. When it comes to scoring, sky is the limit for him.
The Associated Press is reporting that the Bucks will not make an offer Villanueva. He is available.
The Remaining Problem
The combo forward contingency allows the Spurs to add long term talent to their roster . And, in terms of assets, it allows the Spurs to stockpile a bunch of tradable parts in the event their 2009 reload misfires. Good and good. Still, how much can the Spurs reasonably expect from Mahinmi and Blair. They would still need to add an inexpensive but reliable traditional big to the front court.
As a matter of conjecture, here’s my best guess at the coming roster:
Parker/Hill/McClinton;
Ginobili/Mason/Finley;
Jefferson/Hairston/Williams;
MLE/Blair/Gist
Duncan/Mahinmi/Bonner
So, either Hairston, Gist, Williams or McClinton would not make next year’s team. There is plenty of roster flexibility to add a big, but it would come at the cost of a young prospect. So who would the Spurs target?
Fabricio Oberto is the obvious choice, but represents the last generation not the next. Not all bad. Tim Duncan is last generation too. Oberto knows the system. After Fab Oberto, I wonder about Dwayne Jones, who stood out last season with the Toros. Jones is a scrappy player. He’s great on the boards and could play if the Spurs were in a pinch. Robertas Javtokas?
Talent is Talent
Ultimately, I think the Spurs shouldn’t limit themselves to a traditional big, although prioritizing one makes sense. If Wallace or McDyess are not available, making a run at a combo forward and waiting a year on Splitter seems like a prudent back up plan. That’s my rationale, at least. My free agent wish list is ordered something more along the lines of Wallace, Odom, McDyess, Williams, Varajao, Villanueva, Pachulia, Nesterovic, and Gortat.
The Spurs already have their plan in place. And they’ll unveil it soon enough.
I disagree with Mr. Ellis
yeah, i really agree with this article: the obvious top 2 choices for this summer's free agency are: 1.) R. Wallace 2.) A. McDyess
i would really go for a combo 4 than anything left out there since i'm really not that intrigued by: Z. Pachulia, R. Nesterovic, F. Oberto, S. Williams, etc.
and i wouldn't really been surprised if Pop went with a combo forward at the 4 spot, since i think Pop really changed his approach to the buildup of the team from the years past; in past he would favor a more traditional big man to clog the lane and block shots; but in most recent years, he been favoring offense more than defense, reason for M. Bonner as our starting C, and when we play small ball with M. Finley or I. Udoka at 4. and there is some combo 4 still left on the market: L. Odom, M. Williams, H. Warrick.
An interesting analysis. The problem with actually getting Odom (other than money and his up and down play) is we don't have a beach. He's a beach bum.
It's LA or Miami for him. (Of course, this might have been exagerated.)
I'd rather get a traditional big, but the article might be right that a combo-forward might be an option. Certaily keeping Odom out of LA would be a win-win situation. But I am uncertain we could get him.
It is a hard decision, bless I know that it isn't your opinion I hope you don't think I was implying that. It will get interesting if the spurs miss out on sheed and McDyess. I would rather not start duncan at the 5 though. I made a list of 7 footers on another post, but here they are again, buckle in for the show.
Vaj, Zaza, Hollins, Aaron Gray, Rasho, Mihm, Robert Swift, Frye, Lafraentz, Voskuhl, Calvin "the ugly" Booth, Magloire, Johan "the forehead" Petro, Lorenzen Wright, Moore, and the Collins twins in the 7 foot size department via FA.
in the past i really think there's no way Pop is going to go with a combo 4 in the starting lineup; but after the past 2 years, i am starting to believe that Pop favors a combo 4 more than a traditional big. i think if that combo 4 got enough size and weight, it definitely allow the team to be more versatile in both offense and defense.
the remaining bigs:
1.) R. Wallace
2.) A. McDyess
3.) A. Varejao (prolly cost too much) & D. Gooden (talented but doesn't fit that well)
after that the remaining traditional bigs worthy out there are: Z. Pachulia, C. Andersen, B. Bass, G. Davis, C. Frye... the point is there's definitely a big drop off, after that, and i would much rather take a look at some of the combo 4's left out there than sign one of the remaining bigs.
1.) L. Odom "most likely out of our price range, but at 6-10 with skills of a guard, he could really be the perfect fit at the 4."
2.) M. Williams "only 23, he could go anywhere from the MLE to slightly above the MLE, he is 6-9, 240 lbs and shot 36% from 3pt line last year"
3.) H. Warrick "still only 26, and would probably not cost the full MLE. he's 6-9, 220 lbs, has a suspect jumpshot, but is extremely long and has tremendous athleticism.
4.) L. Kleiza "still only 24, at 6-8, 245 lbs, he's a bit small at the 4 but definitely has enough weight, a really good 3pt shooter and would not cost the full MLE.
Kleiza might cost the full MLE since he's restricted and denver might match an offer lower the the MLE, I'd take him over Warrick and he's more realistic then either Odom or Williams.
I would love to see Odom. Absent that, I'd live with Wallace or Williams. I don't think old McDyess is the piece that gets us over the championship hurdle.
I dont see how " acouple of years at the MLE" will get you Odom.
I've always thought Marvin Williams would fit in as a Spur.
When did this article come out, doesnt he know CV is going to Detroit for $35 mil?
I generally agree with this approach but I would add one name to the "cheap bigs" list -- Francisco Elson!He can play some D and run. And he is real cheap.
And one thing I would add to the above approach -- mid-season trades can be had. The Spurs may still get that legitimate big later on as the season unfolds.
It came out June 30.
How about we sign Wallace for the MLE and do some kind of sign and trade deal to ship out Bonner and Finley for McDyess!
You do realize you just re-posted the OP, right?
If Lakers can sign Artest for the MLE, I can't see why the Spurs cannot sign Odom for the MLE. Lets hope that a miracle happens.
Started a new thread, it was merged.You do realize you just re-posted the OP, right?
I'm sure your forum host, Mr Ellis, values your 100 post opinion of his writeup.I disagree with Mr. Ellis
please someone tell me what MLE is
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
