Too early to tell..it'll depend on Jefferson, Mahinmi, and Hairston..
The thing people ignore is that we finished 5th defensively last year, despite playing many old guys and unathletic guys..also despite clear chemistry issues, due to the high number of injuries to the team..
defensively..
McDyess=Thomas..Kurt was a much better post defender, but 'Dice is more mobile..
Jefferson>>>Finley..as our stopper..
Jefferson<Bowen..but this is kind of irrelevant, since Bruce didn't play much last year..
Hairston>>Udoka..just based on tools..Ime was bad last year defensively, couldn't move..
Mahinmi>Oberto..if he plays like his potential shows, he'll be much, much better..his tools make him better than Fab, pretty much by default..
Blair>Gooden..pretty much by default, since Gooden might be the worst defensive big man in the NBA..
Bonner=Bonner..
Finley=Finley..
having a defensive "stopper" is overrated..you just need a good one, not a great one IMO..team defense is always the key, and we have plenty of guys that can play good individual defense, and compliment one another..
there's also a few extra differences between these teams..
a healthy Manu is still one of our best perimeter defenders..while he has taken a step back in individual defense, he's still one of our best at creating turnovers, and he's still a pest..
Hill getting the expected increase in minutes, taking some of Mason and Finley's, will be huge for our defense..his ability to play solid 1 on 1 D, while having the ability to create turnovers..
the most important part to me..if Duncan's healthy, that's an automatic improvement right there..but more importantly, Duncan's role on offense is going to change significantly this season..this team has enough offense that he won't have to put in his usual amount of work..this season, his focus should be on the defensive end, similar to what happened with KG in Boston..Duncan focusing more on defense than offense is still a top 3 anchor in the game, and that will make a huge difference IMO..
obviously the rebounding is huge, as everybody else mentioned..
This is without the potential part..we have some guys that might be able to play a lot better defensively by the end of the season..