The Spurs Aren't Done Making Moves This Summer - What Comes Next?

[naico]

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2009/...e-making-moves

The Spurs Aren't Done Making Moves This Summer - What Comes Next?

Myspace2_tiny by rikiddo on Jul 23, 2009 3:14 AM CDT Comment 26 comments

With the Spurs' apparent signing of vet big man Theo Ratliff(big thanks to Stampler for the find), the time has come to wonder what else the Spurs' front office has up its sleeve. The reload is apparently not finished, which is exactly what some of us were hoping. There will be another trade this offseason for the Spurs, there's just no way around it now. An inane attempt to make sense of this, below the fold.

Ian_large_medium
Oh, Yawn, we hardly know ye. [photo from Ridiculous Upside]

Star-divide
The Frontcourt Logjam

Why do the Spurs have to make a trade? Because there are now 7 big men on the Spurs roster, and even though we don't yet have the details on what Ratliff is getting(likely the minimum), there's no way in the Spurs head into next season with all of these guys:

DeJuan Blair
Matt Bonner
Tim Duncan
Marcus Haislip (not a SF)
Ian Mahinmi
Antonio McDyess
Theo Ratliff

Before moving on, I do want to mention something about Ratliff himself. He's a true center, and even though he's old, he's been an excellent defender/shot blocker in his time. If he still has anything left in the tank, I actually like this move.
Something's Gotta Give

With that out of the way, which big man is on his way out? I've given it a bit of thought, and don't like the answer that seems to emerge. I think there are 4 guys who could possibly be involved in trade talks(possibly more than one of them could be involved in the trade, but let's keep it simple for now). Either way, the Spurs are probably going to act on those plans fairly soon. Anyway, I'll start with the guy I see as most likely to be traded - who might that be?

Mahinmi. Did anyone notice how the Spurs sat Blair for two games in the Summer League, but gave big minutes in every game to the guy who got injured during summer league play last year? That smelled fishy to me, but I didn't really understand why they would do that until now: the Spurs were showing Ian off. They've probably been contacted about Mahinmi by a number of teams who would love to have a young, athletic C with his upside. The Spurs may have given up on him after the last 2 seasons of injury, and started shopping him. Also, he's not what I would call a good post defender, since his thin lower body allows him to be pushed around quite a bit. I'd like to keep Ian, but knowing how Pop operates makes me very nervous about this whole thing.

Bonner would be the second most likely big to leave, and if I was the GM, he's the one I would be shopping. He has the biggest contract(read: largest potential trade return) of any Spurs big who isn't named Tim or Antonio, and there are some teams who could use a perimeter-shooting big on their roster. However, Pop has also fallen in love with having such a perimeter-shooting big in recent years. It's a totally unnecessary wrinkle in the offense, IMO, but I just don't see Pop agreeing to a Bonner trade, unless he thinks Haislip can fill the role(with more ath-uh-leticism to boot).

Haislip and Theo(sign-and trade?) could also be involved in a trade, but I think the Spurs actually see something in Haislip, and Ratliff fits the Spurs normal M.O.
Roster Situation

Now, there's also a second point to make about the current roster - the Spurs will have 15 players under contract with Ratliff on board:

Duncan
Jefferson
Parker
Ginobili
McDyess
Mason
Bonner
Finley
Hill
Mahinmi
Blair
Williams*
Hairston*
Haislip
Ratliff

* = unguaranteed

15 players is the max you can ever have on an NBA roster, and the Spurs always like to have one or two roster spots open. And we haven't even mentioned the other players the Spurs hold rights to. These guys could be treated as trade assets to sweeten the deal for a rebuilding team:

Nando De Colo
James Gist
Robertas Javtokas
Jack McClinton
Tiago Splitter(damn it Pop/RC, you better not)
What Do The Spurs Want/Need?

A point that has been brought up in several other threads is that the Spurs could use a perimeter defender. The Lakers have 2(Kobe, Artest), so it would be nice to have at least one guy who makes opposing wings/guards have serious trouble getting into a rhythm. Bruce Bowen, Raja Bell, and Shane Battier are all names that come to mind. Bowen would be my first choice, but I'm fairly certain we can't re-acquire him via trade, so he would have to come back as a free agent. I also like Bell, and think that a Michael Finley/Bonner or Roger Mason/Mahinmi package might get him out of Charlotte, but I'm not sure just how stupid MJ is in his current role. Battier is priced a bit higher, but Houston could be a willing trade partner, due to the Yao situation(not to mention that they owe us after we practically gift-wrapped their current starting PF for them).

A third PG would also be useful, but I can't think of who I would want to trade for right this moment.

The last possibilty I can think of is a very large man(7' or more) with an interior presence being brought in, which would mean trading multiple bigs. Once again, Ian and Bonner are the most likely to be traded.
The Two Inevitable Questions

Every time the Spurs make a transaction that causes speculation, these two questions come up. So, without further adieu:

Might Manu be traded?
There's always a chance, but it's nowehere near likely.

Is Splitter coming to SA this year?
No. Stop it already - he'll be here for 2010-11, if his rights aren't traded.

[mountainballer]

Anyway, I'll start with the guy I see as most likely to be traded - who might that be?

Mahinmi. Did anyone notice how the Spurs sat Blair for two games in the Summer League, but gave big minutes in every game to the guy who got injured during summer league play last year? That smelled fishy to me, but I didn't really understand why they would do that until now: the Spurs were showing Ian off.

I do see the logic in this estimation and I was also wondering why people automatically assumed that Bonner will be the odd man out. (if there are any moves at all). not that there isn't also a good chance that Bonner will be gone soon.
some people fell back to the totally overestimating of Ian because he survived summer league and in some games showed some decent things like running the floor or getting some boards. nice moments, yes and yes, he could turn into a NBA player. but did he really look like a player, who will play an important role in this teams future? I didn't see this and I still think his upside is the 9-10th man.
the arrive of Blair made this even more obvious. , this is a player, who looked like a legit NBA regular of the future. (and I'm not one of those, who think he will ever be an all-star).
looking at the current roster and payroll situation, I wouldn't be surprised if the Spurs traded Ian for a TE and a 2nd round pick. (btw. Ratliff is cheaper than Ian, considering the league pays part of his salary and also cheaper in lux tax. (I guess the overall difference would be about 400-500K).
what I don't think is, that there is any team out there with a big interest in trading for him anything more than a 2nd rounder because of his potential. teams also didn't exactly start a bidding war, when players like Patrick O'Bryant, Johan Petro, Ryan Hollins or Saer Sene were on the market in the last season.
btw. don't the Spurs have to pick up the 4th year option till Oktober 31st? this would mean they need to guarantee another 2 million $ before they have had the chance to ever use him for some significant action in a regular NBA game. (might be likely 4 million, considering the Spurs very likely will also be lux payers in 2010-11). till now they burned a late 1st round pick and slightly under 2 million $ for him. that's ok.
but are they really willing to invest another 6 million in the Mahinmi project? I doubt it.
summery: I believe Ian will be traded for a TE. maybe even his 2009-10 salary will be included.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

This is an interesting point, Mountainballer.

One of the 7 big men will most likely be gone before the season starts and I'm not really sure that'd be Bonner, because for all his weaknesses, he's the only one of these who can consistently hit the 3 and is a more proven asset than all but 2 of the 7, albeit with little if any upside.

The biggest question is how do the Spurs project Mahinmi's role on the team in the next 2 or 3 years, especially if we're able to bring Splitter over next summer. Will he be able to outperform Blair/Splitter or McDyess? Or will his upside be a 5th bigman on the team? I guess we'll find out by Oct. 31st.

[Rogue]

Spurs have already done a wonderful job this offseason, and the current squad looks even nicer than the Lakers on paper. I don't think any more move is to be executed, lest some scola-mode trades happens again.

[Darkwaters]

mountainballer,

Be careful. When I mentioned the possibility of moving Mahinmi and Finley for a quality player like Sefolosha I was flamed by a mass of ignorance. Suggesting that he might be gone for far less than even that could spell an angry mob!

[rjv]

ian would not have much trade value. at most, you could get a 2nd rounder for him at this time.

[MoSpur]

Trade Ian for a tight end?

[2Cleva]

SA has one more move in them, no doubt. Ratliff was just a body.

I can see this one being a semi-splash. Bonner + Finley for Jeffries would be a nice move. Gets them a versatile frontcourt player who can defend.

[DrHouse]

Spurs appear to be going balls to the wall this offseason. They probably are sensing that this is the last chance for the team to get #5.

[Big P]

No need to trade Ian. Get rid of Bonner & Finley, I would even lose Mason before giving up on Ian.

[Agloco]

Well, as I see it, signing Theo means either Bonner or Ian are up on the chopping block. 6 bigs does not a roster make.

[spursfan1000]

Getting a extra point guard would be nice.

[Seventyniner]

Ian's salary isn't big enough for it to be worth just dumping him. His contract is so cheap for his potential that the Spurs should, at the very least, just let him play his contract out.

You can't get anything worth having for that small of a contract anyway.

[Spursfan092120]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=131862

Jamaal Tinsley anyone?

[cd98]

Generally I think the Battier talk is fantasy. I mean, does Houston really want Finley and Bonner at the end of the day?

But an Ian trade intrigues me.

Given the Rockets are without Yao, and this year is most likely a wash for them (no McGrady, No Yao, and traded Artest), the Rockets could do worse than get a center prospect and a year to develop him. Plus they can get salary cap relief with one of our other expendable contracts.

And how bad do they need Battier given they already have Ariza. Why not trade him for a package that includes expiring contracts and a young, athletic center?

[urunobili]

Nocioni would be the dream case scenario...

[cd98]

No need to trade Ian. Get rid of Bonner & Finley, I would even lose Mason before giving up on Ian.

Ian isn't going to give you much in the limited minutes he will get this year. And if Tiago comes next year, then how useful will Ian really be? If I could get a top notch perimeter defender like Battier, I'd do it in a second. We've got enough big men to handle L.A., Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando.

[K-State Spur]

The reason Bonner is used instead of Ian is because of their respective values.

Bonner has more value to other teams than he does the Spurs because of his expiring contract.

Ian has more value to the Spurs than he does other teams because he represents youth along an aging front line.

If we trade Bonner, we can likely receive more value than his production would indicate. If we trade Ian, we will likely receive less value than his potential would indicate.

[lotr1trekkie]

Haislip's signing seems to lean to Mahimni as the main trading chip. The Spurs still don't have a starting #2 that I like. Miller or Bell would give us an awesome starting lineup. If the Spur's FO is sure Spitter is coming next year then Ian is expendable.

[mikeb2016]

mountainballer,

Be careful. When I mentioned the possibility of moving Mahinmi and Finley for a quality player like Sefolosha I was flamed by a mass of ignorance. Suggesting that he might be gone for far less than even that could spell an angry mob!

I cannot speak for any of the others who disagreed with you, but the fact that you suggested he would be traded for so much is what really made your argument unplausible. Thabo Sefolosha for Finley and Mahinimi would ruin Presti's image as a guy who knows what he's doing, and would take RC about 15 seconds to have the paperwork drawn up.

But mountainballer's argument actually has merit, because it makes sense. There probably are a few GMs (Presti being one of them) that would consider throwing a 2nd round pick at a guy who has already shown flashes, and the money saved by dumping Ian for Theo is not inconsequential.

I still say, in my humble and very unimportant opinion, that you trade Finley and Bonner for someone that can actually make an impact, and that doing so may mean waiting until Jan/Feb to find the right deal, and that having those guys in the mean time as a safety net for Blair/Ian/Haislip's development and Manu's health is not a bad thing. Heck, maybe even Mahinimi develops some, and becomes the kicker that gets you a big name at the deadline...wishful thinking, I guess. But the point is that the FO may feel like Mahinimi is not the right guy for this club to make a championship run this year, and that dumping him to save money and get a 2nd rounder may be the way to go.

[rayray2k8]

So everybody still thinks the spurs are still looking to deal? If they somehow find a team to dump Bonner on them, I say that's a wrap.

[buttsR4rebounding]

If Mahimni can get you a Battier, SJax, etc. caliber player you do it. Especially if you think Splitter is on his way next year. Blair changed the Mahimni status significantly. While Ian doesn't get you good value because of his contract size as a kicker in a deal he can be the deciding factor. Teams trade for and draft potential all the time. So they can unload salary and maybe pick up a very athletic big. Depending on his development I could see Ian being a great fit in Golden State.

[Bruno]

Even if I don't think it and i don't wish it, Mahinmi could be traded for the reasons given by mountainballer.

Now the idea that Spurs were showcasing Mahinmi in SL, is just plain stupid. PtR's writers are damn weak when it comes to analyze Spurs.

[ChumpDumper]

If the Spurs were showing Ian off, I would think RC and Pop and Newman would have talked him up a lot more. As it was, they acted like they had just signed him the morning of their respective interviews.

Anything is possible though.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

Trade Ian for a tight end?