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Duncan will average around 30 minutes a game this year. The Spurs have so much depth in the post that Blair, Ian, Haislip and to a lesser degree Bonner and Ratliff will cut into his minutes. No way he gets MVP.
Not very good. Consistency doesn't get you on sportscenter, scoring 40, triple doubles or 20/20 games, if you're Dwight Howard do. 20/10 every night wouldn't do it. He'd probably have to go 25/13/5/2 or something. And if he has to take on that much statistical load, the spurs aren't winning 60 or going anywhere. After this offseason, I expect his stats to drop, really.
Duncan's personality, and his unselfish play at this stage of his career? Don't make him stand out. Making the extra pass was being smart, a virtue when he was younger. Now it's a symptom of age, decline, waning athleticism, and proof he can't get it done anymore. Or so sportswriters/casters tell me. Sure, Kobe has Pau. But there is no debate as to whose team it is. Same thing with LeBron, Wade, Dwight-there is no question that they own their team. The Spurs' are Duncan's by seniority, not by any sort of dominance, be it on the court or in the locker room.
Duncan's play made that statement in his MVP years, not his personality. There are other guys are making MVP statements with both, and Duncan just isn't hampered enough by his ego to try.
Duncan will average around 30 minutes a game this year. The Spurs have so much depth in the post that Blair, Ian, Haislip and to a lesser degree Bonner and Ratliff will cut into his minutes. No way he gets MVP.
I think Duncan is more worried about being MVP of the Finals.
If the Spurs win the best record in the NBA by a few games, then at least one of the Spurs are gonna win MVP/DPOY/6th man/COY.
Duncan has never been about individual awards. I agree his focus is a Championship, but not the MVP. He was thrilled for Parker in '07.
I think the Finals MVP does matter to him. Not nearly as much as the championship, and not nearly enough to hold parker or manu or whoever back from getting it (it's tim after all), but I think it does make some his aches and pains a little less when he thinks about playing and winning at a such a high level again.
Even though Duncan does not get as excited or push for awards as much as other people, he is still a compe or and he would like these awards if he can get them. They signify that you are playing at the highest level.
He would not trade a championship for a MVP award, but he would like both if he could I would bet. It is a sign of respect and for a compe or, you want to be the best.
I do not know how good the chances would be of him winning, but if the Spurs are in the race for the top record, I can see him getting some consideration.
I'm sure it matters, I'm sure all his achievements mean something to him. But I don't think it's what he focuses on, what he plays for. He's all about his team and the Championships, he always has been.
I'm sure that winning it all, and taking home that ultimate prize does help ease those pains, but we know he'd take the Championships without the MVP every time. Duncan has always been good at keeping his ego in check.
If we win 60, Duncan wins the MVP, if Duncan:
1) leads Spurs in scoring
2) averages 20 points per game
3) averages 10 rebounds per game
4) averages 2 blocks per game
5) shoots 50% from floor
6) shoots 70% from line
7) Spurs have best record in NBA
Duncan could also win the MVP if he comes close to most of these targets, and no other NBA payer has a standout MVP season.
Speaking of finals MVPs, a better question.
If Tim, Manu and Tony are all healthy-who wins the finals MVP?
First I really suspect Pop hates coaching an ASG. He's rather have the time off, he prefers to build for the play offs and get his sets and system in place for May. If the Spurs jump out for a 60+ season run, I'll be amused. he's got new pieces and I think he wants to get his defense schemes rock solid. That's where to watch. We did well on offense and wins with all our injuries last year, that hasn't changed if not will automatically improve.
Defense stats are what to watch, not W's as the latter will come on their own with the former. I suspect we'll be flying under the usual radar until after the ASG...SOP for Pop..
I think Tony will have more chances of winning the MVP than Duncan.
Tony has a better chance of getting it than Tim these days.
Tim, along with the rest of the Spurs organization, wants championships. The only award or trophy we need is the LOB.
Up through the two MVP seasons, Duncan averaged about 3,000 minutes per season. That includes 98-99, when he only played 50 games, so he averaged well over 3,000 minutes for the other seasons in the first half of his career. Beginning the season after Duncan's second MVP, he has averaged about 2,500 minutes per season. That translates into about 39.3 MPG before, and 34.4 MPG after.
It's amazing that his per-game numbers didn't drop any more than they did, but you can still see the difference. If the MVP selection considered his per-36-minutes stats, he would have a shot - but that's not going to happen. Rationing Tim's minutes is one of the smarter things Popovich has done. But it means that Duncan won't be putting up the kind of gaudy numbers it takes to win an MVP award.
But he sure as has the numbers it takes to win another championship.
Tim's stats in 2009 per 36 minutes are better than they were in 1999, when he was cheated out of the MVP.
1999 per 36 minutes (rounded off)
points 20
boards 11
assists 2
blocks 2
steals 1
TOTAL A = 36
TO's 3
missed FG 8
missed FT 2
TOTAL B = 13
A - B = 23
2009 per 36 minutes (rounded off)
points 21
boards 11
assists 4
blocks 2
steals 1
TOTAL A = 39
TO's 2
missed FG 8
missed FT 2
TOTAL B = 12
A - B = 27
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...duncati01.html
+1oh, i think duncan's regular season mvp days are long gone. I'd be thrilled to see him earn another finals mvp, but i'll take a championship without it.
I think the days of averaging a double double will be over this upcoming season.
if duncan gets 22 and 12 jefferson averages 10 points a game
Wade, Kobe, Lebron and D Howard probably have it on lock for the next 5 years due to popularity...IMO?....
Usually, a 60+ win team gets someone with MVP votes at the very least. If the Spurs somehow wind up with the best record in the league (~10% chance, IMO), somebody on the team should get at least some 3rd or 4th place MVP votes. Probably Parker.
20/10 would not be enough with a 30/7/7 Lebron (or similar).
I guess with 25ppg/12rpg/4apg/3 bpg he would be taken seriously
...
With Kobe and Lebron, he has ZERO CHANCE at this point.
have to agree with this. With the lack of rebound helped last year, TD got a few extra boards.
If the Spurs do win 60+ games, it really means that TD didnt have to work as hard. If we had no other options, Im sure Timmy could get a ton of points and boards, but with this team now, he shouldnt have to. With a healthy Manu, RJ and TP and a rebounder in Blair and dice, Time should have one of his worse seasons statistically, but who cares if we win the Chamionship!!
TD should be getting lots and lots of rest this season along with Manu.
Save them for when it counts.
With reduced minutes for those two, it's hard to see the Spurs winning 60.
Having help in the middle will get Duncan more rebounds, not fewer. There are several reasons why, but the most obvious reason is that our opponents will be missing more shots. More misses equals more rebound opportunities, and Tim will get his share of them.have to agree with this. With the lack of rebound helped last year, TD got a few extra boards.
If the Spurs do win 60+ games, it really means that TD didnt have to work as hard. If we had no other options, Im sure Timmy could get a ton of points and boards, but with this team now, he shouldnt have to. With a healthy Manu, RJ and TP and a rebounder in Blair and dice, Time should have one of his worse seasons statistically, but who cares if we win the Chamionship!!
His knee will have the biggest impact on his numbers, but I wouldn't bet any of my hard-earned money that he won't average a double-double this year, or next.
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