No way. This is a massive hurricane. There is 0% chance he'll miss the coast. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles out from the center of circulation. At the very least, the Southern NE Coast will experience massive erosion, some coastal flooding, and wave heights of 16-24 feet.
I guess you can consider that a "total miss", but people can still lose their lives from dangerous rip currents or lightning from outlying rainbands/thunderstorms.
100% total miss, eh sabar?
Bill is a Cat 3 hurricane right now, but as wind shear decreases over the next 24 hours it should re-strengthen.
Hmm - not sure I agree with that. I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, but I'm fairly certain the average number of landfalls on the New England Coast is roughly the same for the Texas Coast. Also, even if the tropical cyclone numbers are higher they also deal with noreasters and other cold core systems that might as well be hurricanes.
In fairness, there's a bit of a frequency difference between the Northeastern Seaboard and Texas in terms of the # of hurricanes coming ashore.
-Forgot I was on Jess computer -- Manny
Pretty sure that no place on the NE coast is going to get Hurricane force winds. You gotta remember a couple of things:
1. Strongest winds are always in the NE quadrant - away from the coast in this case.
2. Wind fields dramaticaly contract and weaken as a storm moves near a cost. Even the flat ground of a coastal plain provides a substantial amount of resistance via friction that will remove energy from a storm.
Also - when a storm reaches the NE area and is off the coast the effects can be dramatically weaker on the western side of the storm of the storm because the wind is moving in the direction opposite of the systems movement.
Bummed I missed the first storm of the season but glad its not going to ruin anyone's lives.
-Manny (still too lazy to login)
Okay, but even assuming that's true, the NE coast has only had one major hurricane hit north of DC, to my knowledge (the Long Island Express in 1938 for those who don't know, cause I'm sure Manny does).
I seriously doubt NE gets as many hurricanes as Texas, though, and the possibility of experiencing a cat 5 along the NE coast is virtually nil.
I never stated that the coast was going to experience 74+ mph winds. I was using the hurricane force winds as an illustration of the size of Bill, who at the time was a massive hurricane with a huge windfield. If he drifted even 100 miles East, saying it's a "total miss" is ridiculous, because he's still going to have a lot of impact along the coastline. Also, if a storm is going to hit the NYC area, it's likely going to be moving at 25+ mph, which is going to limit the amount of time for weakening it has.
However, this is all a bit moot now. Dry air got to Bill and tore him apart. He's barely hanging on at the moment and pressure is over 960 mb.
Good to see you back online and following the 'canes, Manny!
99% total miss, eh?
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