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http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/0...u.projections/
Report: Swine flu could cause up to 90,000 U.S. deaths
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The H1N1 flu virus could cause up to 90,000 U.S. deaths, mainly among children and young adults, if it resurges this fall as expected, according to a report released Monday by a presidential advisory panel.
The report urges speedier production of the H1N1 vaccine and the availability of some doses by September.
The H1N1 virus, commonly known as swine flu virus, could infect between 30 percent and 50 percent of the American population during the fall and winter and lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions, the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology reported.
The report says 30,000 to 90,000 deaths are projected as part of a "plausible scenario" involving large outbreaks at schools, inadequate antiviral supplies and the virus peaking before vaccinations have time to be effective.
Up to 40,000 U.S. deaths are linked to seasonal flu each year, with most of the fatalities occurring among people over 65. With seasonal flu and H1N1, this fall is expected to bring more influenza deaths and place "enormous stress" on intensive care units nationwide, which normally operate near capacity, the report says.
An H1N1 resurgence may happen as early as September, at the beginning of the school year, and infections may peak in mid-October, according to the report. However, the H1N1 vaccine isn't expected to be available until mid-October, and even then it will take several weeks for vaccinated individuals to develop immunity, the report says. Watch more on H1N1 predictions for this fall »
The potential "mismatch in timing" could significantly diminish the usefulness of the H1N1 vaccine, the report says.
"Even with the best efforts, this will cause some illness, some severe illness and unfortunately, some deaths," Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday.
Among the report's recommendations are for government agencies to:
• Prepare several "planning scenarios" to determine demand for supplies and care.
• Set up surveillance systems to track information about influenza-like illnesses.
• Develop plans to protect the public's most vulnerable groups, such as pregnant women and those with pre-existing medical conditions.
• Speed up the production of the H1N1 vaccine and have an initial batch -- enough to vaccinate up to 40 million people, especially those who are at risk of serious disease -- by mid-September.
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said the government's preparation and guidance for the public was based on the need to strike a balance "on a continuum of being paralyzed with fear versus complacency."
So far, clinical trials for the H1N1 vaccine have not indicated adverse side effects beyond what are experienced with the seasonal flu vaccine, Sebelius said.
However, there would be no formal decision to launch a vaccination campaign until those trials were complete, she said. That decision would be hers, she said, and she emphasized that any vaccination program would be strictly voluntary.
Pregnant women, health care workers and parents or guardians of infants under 6 months of age are among the most vulnerable segments of the population, Sebelius has said.
Adults under the age of 65 with an underlying health condition -- such as asthma -- are also considered to be more at risk from the H1N1 virus.
H1N1 preparation guidelines for the nation's businesses and school systems were released three weeks ago. The plans are available at the Web site www.flu.gov.
The H1N1 vaccine would require two shots, the second three weeks after the first. Immunity to the virus would not kick in until two weeks after the second shot.
The World Health Organization declared the H1N1 virus a global pandemic on June 11. More than 1,490 people around the world have died from the virus since it emerged this spring, a WHO official said last week.
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Scare tactic
gee and health care is on the table. what a coincidence......................doesn't this health care kick in close to 2013 anyway?
it doesn't matter if you win or lose. it only depends how you look doing it.
Anybody have ANY proof, aka "evidence-based medicine", that BigPharma's swine flu vaccine actually works? and how many people does it sicken and kill?
If you hate "big" pharma with such a passion, don't take any drugs. Rely on crystals, magnets, and herbal remedies. Good luck with that.
The last American swine flu vaccine ed a lot of people up.
I think I will rely on youth, diet, exercise, and hope my immune system is up to the challenge.
me too, except for the "youth" part.I think I will rely on youth, diet, exercise, and hope my immune system is up to the challenge.
I don't need no stinkin' vaccines...
What ever happened to SARS and the West Nile virus?
Like all years since 1993, I'll skip the vaccine.
I don't think I've gotten one since the 1970sLike all years since 1993, I'll skip the vaccine.
Well, it was mandatory while I was in the Army. I had no choice.
i do expect to see more deaths than usual from the flu this season due to the addition of the H1 N1 strain but the same demographic will be at risk as usual. the key to remember here is that this is not an avian flu strain.
Actually, black elderberry extract is as effective an anti-viral, if not more so, than either Tamiflu or Relenza. That even stops bird flu dead in it's tracks, and bird flu kills everyone.
Seeing that I'd just assume see a select group of board conservatives wither and die from an infectious disease, I don't know why I'm even saying this, but everyone should go get a bottle.
They are back in the lab.
I actually read a long ass story just the other day about the spread of west nile in Utah. People might not be getting sick too often, but that's only because them sosalists in the government spend insane amounts of (my) money to spray mosquitoes with insecticide.
H1N1 is forecast to impact a much more youthful demographic than normal, here's just one story:
The new flu infects young people more often than it does older ones; people born before 1957 have an added advantage, because a similar H1N1 flu that was circulating then provides some immunity. The rapid ricochet of the new flu can create high absenteeism, disrupting college calendars.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/23/health/23flu.html
Another:
The first priority group of recipients [for H1N1 flu shots] would be pregnant women, people who live with or care for children younger than 6 months, health care and emergency personnel, people 6 months to 24 years old, and people age 25 to 64 who are at high risk due to chronic health disorders or compromised immune systems.
[...]
Unlike past influenza outbreaks, people age 65 and older are not in the priority group because the H1N1 virus appears to have low impact on this demographic. Younger people are more seriously affected.
http://www.ama-assn.org/amednews/200...0/prsf0812.htm
Darrin, can you answer the questions? of course not.
this is too premature to report this, i feel. for one, WHO has already reported that the average age for H1N1 patients is increasing. this increase may be due to the migration of the disease from the schools to the communities and thus to an older demographic.
to assume that a 65 year old demographic is at less of a risk due to a possible exposure to a similar strain over 50 years ago seems a bit risky to me. older people are still going to be more likely to be suffering from existing cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and cancer and thus at higher risk.
two things to remember here are: 1) the full picture of the pandemic's epidemiology is not yet fully clear because in many countries, seasonal influenza viruses and H1N1 viruses are both circulating and the pandemic remains relatively early in its development. and 2) the same mortality factors that play a role in seasonal influenza will also play the same role with H1N1.
Yes.
See.
I for one am going to get vaccinated. People make a big deal out of the last swine flu vaccine that gave like 500 (iirc) people Guillain Barre Syndrome. 500 people's not ... so I'm assuming there's more of a risk from the flu than there is from the vaccine.
If I get sick, I'll drink plenty of juice and water, take amino acid supplements, and vitamins. I'll be fine. No slim chance of side effects.
Survival kit contents check.
one forty-five caliber automatic;
two boxes of ammunition;
four days' concentrated emergency rations;
one drug issue containing antibiotics, morphine, vitamin pills, pep pills, sleeping pills, tranquilizer pills;
one miniature combination Russian phrase book and Bible;
one hundred dollars in rubles;
one hundred dollars in gold;
nine packs of chewing gum;
one issue of prophylactics;
three lipsticks;
three pair of nylon stockings.
Shoot, a fella' could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff.
Tamiflu as soon as you have the flu, fever (high) and a strong headache. That would be enough.
Wash your hands 1000 times a day if necessary, and alcohol in gel helps too.
We had over 300 deaths (officialy) during winter in Argentina. Probably not even close to the real number.
Country with 2nd most deaths in the world....after the US.
I don't think Tamiflu works against swine flu.
Yes, it does.
Or people got better here because they were lucky.
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