Reply With Quote
Good Analysis!
Last season our stats were
Pts: 97.1
Reb: 41.1
Ast: 21.2
Lets try to see how our stats will look like this year and lets assume that our starting five are the following:
TP/Mason/RJ/TD/Dice
TP is nearing his prime so we expect him to produce the same if not better numbers as last year.
Mason should do better --like most spurs do during their second year. Plus he is leaner and motivated. So I think its safe to assume that he 'll do at least the same.
RJ no doubt is a major upgrade from Fin, who produced 9.7 pts, 3.3 Reb and 1.4 ast last season. Lets say RJ produces 15 pts, 4.5 reb and 2 ast. His stats were better last year, but there is only one ball... plus I don't want to blow things out of proportion
TD is mister consistency, so I don't expect his production to drop that much.
Dice is an upgrade from Bonner, who had about 8.2 pts and less than 5 reb. Its not too much to assume that Dice will give us, a 12/8 or 10/7.
So roughly speaking our new stats look like this
Pts: 105.1
Reb: 46.5
Ast: 22.5
Lakers stats last year were as follows:
Pts: 102.4
Reb: 40.9
Ast: 19.8
And an argument can be made that other than Ron (who is an upgrade) and maybe Lamar and Pau playing at the same level as last year, Kobe and the rest of the team is just getting older. Derek Fisher is becoming a liability and Bynum is a question mark. I don't expect their production to go up that much if any.
Obviously my analysis is neither scientific nor accurate, but hopefully is a good indication of things to come. What i like most is that I used stats with Manu NOT healthy and w/o the improvement of Gorgie.
Which means that as long as Manu is somewhat healthy and as long as our rookies play at the level of Fab, Bruce and KT, not only we should be a much much much better team, but as good if not better of the likes of Lakers/Cavs/Mavs/.... etc. NO ONE and I mean NO ONE seems to have such major upgrades in the off season other than the spurs.
Fair Warning with Manu healthy in 07-08 our stats were:
Reb: 41.3 Ast: 21.0 Pts: 95.4
So one can argue that we are better off w/o Manu which is NOT the case, its just goes on to show that all this analysis it could be BS.
You may have noticed that I made fun of Hollinger's ridiculous analysis in the past. Let me say that my analysis maybe even worse(!) but I sure do hope and I have my fingers crossed that I am not :P
Last word; One should not only look at Pts/Reb/Ast but also consider stats like pts allowed, Reb allowed, TO, etc.... I just dont have that much time on my hands or the knowledge to do so :P
For example how is the addition of RJ is going to change the pts allowed? How do you estimate something like that?
We all know that Spurs will be a much better team next year, what I think is that we may don't have to rely on Manu's health and the production of our rookies that much. How awesome that would be?!
Any thoughts are welcome
Good Analysis!
We might score over 100, but it really depends on how the team changes the offensive and defensive philosophies.
I think that, instead of assuming the addition of more scoring means the team has a higher score, it could instead just mean we score more efficiently, and end up with a greater point differential.
I don't think you have any idea what it would really take to bump a team's scoring by 8 points per game.
speculation like this doesn't take into account thousands of variables that should be.
The most I think our average would be is about 100, but I think it will probably be around 99-98 but like another poster said not many more points but more efficient.
I think the Spurs will average around 99 ppg. Though RJ provides offense, Tim and Manu will probably score a little less than their averages in recent years as Pop manages their minutes. I think the only way they'd average 105 ppg would be abandoning their defense and trying to run. And I don't think that would happen.
I pray it doesn't....we don't need to be Phoenix or Dallas of the mid 2000's
You beat me to it.
Why not? Phx style of play for the regular season to bring in the fans and fill in the seats then gear up the defense for the post season. It's doable.
It's all about the post-season.
Somehow I doubt Pop agrees with your "logic".
The Spurs scored 97ppg last year. I think they'll be around that number again this year. This offseason was about getting personnel to make them better at what they do, not to entirely change what they do.
Spurs only get so many possesions per game. Manu and RJ will take away all the touches Finley and Mason got last year.
Therefore Mason and Finley's numbers will most likely decline. Maybe not efficiency wise but points/ assists/ rebound wise.
No, thats silly, you don't all of a sudden start playing defense. You work on defense every practice , every game. It is a way of life, you don't all of a sudden decide to change styles and play D.
It's all about PACE and efficiency that will determine what they do as a team. You can't just summarily think that because those new guys are here, that everyone's numbers are going to go up.
There are only so many possessions in a typical basketball game, even less if Pop has his way. How is it that TP, Manu, Tim, Roger, or even anyone else going to get their typical numbers? Answer: THEY WON'T, at least not individually. As it's been for every championship Spurs team, the team is better collectively than they are individually.
Your analysis sucks
Mavs 2010 SW Division Champs
Mavs 2006/2010 NBA Champs
Your analysis is way off.
First of all, like some posters mentioned, no way there will be a 8 PPG jump in our numbers. If that is the case, our pace would be somewhere like #8 in the NBA, which would not be possible. Again, rebounding, not possible again due to pace. Next, at least be consistent with assists, if you are going to make up these high numbers, at least increase the assist average so that it makes sense.
I can't see the Spurs change their game much. they might even reduce the pace, the higher overall quality of the core will even lead to a slower pace, more half court sets, more ball movement and patiently working for high % opportunities.
they might end with a higher per game scoring average, because we can expect that Spurs don't fall in a scoring slump on some nights, like they did several times in the last seasons. so wee will likely see fewer below 85 games, but we also won't see the Spurs more often score 100+ than we did in the last years.
I see their steals per game picking up and there fast break points rising as well , other than that i think that their play book might be pretty much the same.
taking Bonner, Oberto and Bowen out of the rotation?
I see our avg around 100-101
I like the analysis, personally, you can't necessarily fault him for his assessments because the author DID give several disclaimers about the authenticity and accuracy, so those telling him he's wrong for offering an opinion when you haven't the courage to defend your opinion is like complaining about who the President of the U.S. is when you didn't even vote! So come one, come all you hypocrites, and I'll serve you up a fresh slice of humble pie with you choice of a side of ignorance or apathy.
Kudos for being so bold as to offer a honest and truthful opinion without getting too preachy.
He's not wrong for offering his opinion. It's just that most of us feel that his opinion is based on flawed logic and does not result in a reasonable conclusion.
Bonner, Oberto, and Popafinley out of the rotation could easily add 8 points.Originally Posted by exstatic View Post
I don't think you have any idea what it would really take to bump a team's scoring by 8 points per game.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
