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The champs are ranked #1, no surprise there. The prediction for western conference champs will be
out on Friday and they'll obviously pick them, since they make it seem as if no
one, not even god, can touch them.
BSPN
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On Tuesday, we forecast the East, and today it's the West.
One note of explanation, as covered yesterday: The order of finish is more important in these predictions than the exact number of wins and losses. When 53 individuals vote, they will almost never all agree that one team will win as many as, let's say, 65 games, or that another team will win only 20 games, even though we know these things happen frequently. Why? Because these are extreme results that happen when pretty much everything goes right or everything goes wrong for a team. The panel collectively takes a more measured view, so the forecasts for wins and losses tend to float toward the middle.
Predicted Standings for Western Conference: 2009-10
CONF TEAM W L PCT 09 W 09 L 09 PCT
1
Los Angeles Lakers 62 20 .756 65 17 .793
Our forecasters say the champion Lakers will edge the Cavs for best record in the NBA and home court throughout the playoffs, which will come in handy if we get a Kobe-LeBron showdown. That's the only close race the Lakers will be in, according to our panel, which doesn't seem too worried about potential disruptions by Ron Artest.
2
San Antonio Spurs 54 28 .659 54 28 .659
The aging Spurs appear to be back in business, though in fact they somehow managed 54 wins and the No. 3 seed last season before being bounced in Round 1. This time around, their hopes rest on a return to health by Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili and the additions of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair.
3
Portland Trail Blazers 52 30 .634 54 28 .659
Can Portland become the proverbial "team nobody wants to face" in the Western Conference playoffs? Or are they ready for true contender status? Expectations are large, as are the variables: Can Greg Oden find himself? How will Andre Miller's go-go style mesh with the walk-it-up Blazers? And who's the starting point guard, anyway?
4
Denver Nuggets 51 31 .622 54 28 .659
The Nuggets won't sneak up on anyone this year, and perhaps they won't need to. With largely the same roster as they had in May, Denver is counting on good health and the further development of Carmelo Anthony to stay among the West's best. If these predictions hold, they might get a playoff rematch with the Lakers.
5
Dallas Mavericks 50 32 .610 50 32 .610
The Mavs had a topsy-turvy summer that, according to our panel, will leave them right where they were last season: 50-32, and in the middle of the pack. They brought back Jason Kidd and acquired Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden, but lost a battle of wits with Orlando for Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat. Expect the moves to keep coming.
6
Utah Jazz* 47 35 .573 48 34 .585
Utah was a trendy name a year ago, but barely rates a mention now, for a couple of reasons: The team is coming off a disappointing season, and the Carlos Boozer situation is unresolved. But the Jazz still have a potent roster led by Deron Williams, and the dark-horse label seems to fit this team as well as any other in the West.
7
New Orleans Hornets* 47 35 .573 49 33 .598
It was a disappointing season in New Orleans, relative to the high expectations they started with, but they still won 49 games and they still have Chris Paul. The Hornets are another of the West's "if everything breaks right" contenders, as they need Julian Wright, Ike Diogu and Hilton Armstrong to do more to justify being lottery picks.
8
Phoenix Suns 42 40 .512 46 36 .561
The Suns were a lottery team last season, but a good one, winning 46 despite a coaching change and an eye injury to Amare Stoudemire. Now Shaq's gone, and the speed game is back, led by Steve Nash. If Amare returns to full health, the Suns will light it up again. But will that be enough for more than 8th best in the West?
9
Houston Rockets 37 45 .451 53 29 .646
The Rockets were a remarkable story last season, taking the Lakers to seven games without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. Now Houston is in a transition year, as Yao appears out for the season and T-Mac's return is iffy. One thing does seem certain: The Rockets will scrap and claw and make every opponent's W well-earned.
10
Los Angeles Clippers 33 49 .402 19 63 .232
Giddy Clippers fans might not appreciate this forecast, but keep in mind: A 33-49 record would be a 14-game leap, and L.A. has been such a disheveled franchise it's going to have to prove itself to our panel. That said, some see the Clips winning as many as 50 games, thanks in large part to the arrival of Blake Griffin.
11
Oklahoma City Thunder 32 50 .390 23 59 .280
No West bandwagon is more crowded than OKC's, with our panel seeing the team that started 1-16 a year ago making the leap to mediocrity. Given the age of Kevin Durant (20), Russell Westbrook (20), Jeff Green (23) and newcomer James Harden (20), it's not hard to see what the excitement is about. But it will be hard to see them on TV.
12
Golden State Warriors 31 51 .378 29 53 .354
Golden State celebrated its crowning as Team Turmoil with another heaping helping of controversy, as putative team leader Stephen Jackson reportedly asked to be traded to a good team. The talent of such youngsters as Monta Ellis and Anthony Randolph is undeniable, but clearly our panelists just do not trust the Warriors to pull it together.
13
Minn. Timberwolves 26 56 .317 24 58 .293
Minnesota's noisy offseason of trades, controversial draft picks, the firing of Kevin McHale, the hiring of Kurt Rambis and a failed bid to sign Ricky Rubio is likely to be followed by a quiet season on the hardwood. The immediate future is about getting Al Jefferson healthy and seeing what youngsters Kevin Love and Jonny Flynn can do.
14
Memphis Grizzlies 25 57 .305 24 58 .293
The talent base is improving thanks to youngsters Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, Hasheem Thabeet and Mike Conley. However, the arrival of Zach Randolph, our pick for Worst Newcomer, means that chemistry will continue to be an issue in Memphis, which also has its sights set on the 34-year-old Allen Iverson. Go figure.
15
Sacramento Kings 21 61 .256 17 65 .207
The Kings take the honors as the NBA's worst team, both in last season's standings and this season's projections. Reasons for optimism include a return to health for Kevin Martin and the arrival of Tyreke Evans, but even that is a bit troubling, as they might end up playing the same position. Expect another long year in Sac-Town.
* - The Jazz finished slightly ahead of the Hornets in our average prediction.
The champs are ranked #1, no surprise there. The prediction for western conference champs will be
out on Friday and they'll obviously pick them, since they make it seem as if no
one, not even god, can touch them.
BSPN
Why not assume?
They bolstered their roster and kept everyone except Ariza around.
I don't see how rating the Lakers 1, and thinking they will repeat is some kind of atrocity..
lol Fillmoe
Of course, we're the lakers and the defending Champs. where else could we be ranked other than the top spot?!The champs are ranked #1, no surprise there. The prediction for western conference champs will be
out on Friday and they'll obviously pick them, since they make it seem as if no
one, not even god, can touch them.
BSPN
The lakers are #1 until Duncan and Ginobili both show they are close to 100%.
The Yao and T-mac less Rockets last year gave them problems, so I'm not sure they're unbeatable.
We???Of course, we're the lakers and the defending Champs. where else could we be ranked other than the top spot?!
Lakers are #1 in the NBA till someone beats them, they are defending NBA champs, it's that simple. Are they unbeatable, no way, if the Spurs are 100% or even 90% healthy the Lakers will get challenged. Even the Lakers could have an injury plagued season, it's not impossible, they just came off of a championship. I agree with that list to an extent.
The Spurs will go close to 60 wins, and I don't see the Lakers winning much more than 60. It'll be closer than people think.
Elsewhere in that list I think the Setting Suns are over-rated, and that it'll be a four-way scrap between them, the Clipshow, The Zombie Sonics and the Rockettes for the 8-spot. Forced to choose, I'm going with the Thunder.
Last edited by RuffnReadyOzStyle; 09-02-2009 at 09:57 PM.
The potential is there for us to win a lot of games, possibly even getting home court throughout due to the expected decline of the Rockets. Lakers-Spurs definitely shaping up as what could be a great conference final leading to another championship for the victor. My only dilemma is do I get the full season league pass or cut the wife a break and wait until the half season becomes available since I watch so much football. Life is full off tough decisions...
Pretty good list actually. There's teams you could argue should be up or down a spot, but there aren't any glaring WTF's.
How did an old, allegedly non-contending spurs team improve so much over the offseason and yet end up with a prediction for the same number of wins (54) as last year's disappointment?
Acknowledge the improvement and following with a prediction of 54 wins is either failure to really understand the changes or a failure to see how good last year's team really was. For some reason those pricks forget all the great teams we whooped last year and the fact that it was a MAJOR upset that the Mavs beat us... even WOUNDED! Are these EXPERTS really so narrow-minded? JJ Barea turn into Isiah Thomas for afew games and the Spurs get absolutely no recognition for a valiant effort with a wounded club. Screw them.
The Lakers will more than likely be the #1 seed. Not because they're automatically better than the Spurs, but because of continuity, and the fact that Jackson always pushes hard to win games at the expense of playing his players major minutes, while Pop does the opposite.
West
1. Lakers
2. Spurs
3. Trail Blazers
4. Nuggets
5. Mavericks
6. Hornets
7. Jazz
8. Clippers
9. Suns
10. Rockets
11. Thunder
12. Warriors
13. Timberwolves
14. Grizzlies
15. Kings
East
1. Cavaliers
2. Celtics
3. Magic
4. Hawks
5. Wizards
6. Raptors
7. Bulls
8. Heat
9. 76ers
10. Pistons
11. Bobcats
12. Pacers
13. Bucks
14. Knicks
15. Nets
aint complaining about the list. the champs should be number one. Besides the Spurs have alot of question marks: the health of the big 3, the new players fitting in, Pop's brain.
but i would put the clips and maybe the rockets ahead of phoenix. Phoenix did absolutely nothing to help their team. Amare will play C again. Nash is a year older. Hill won't be enough. JRich is useless.
Seems about right, don't know if the Blazers will have another great year.
Guarantee if healthy Spurs get 58 wins this year or more
1. LA
2. DAL
3. SA
4. PORT
5. DEN
6. UTA
7. NOLA
8. PHX
Mavs get revenge on Hornets, face the Spurs like they always do, and beat the Blazers in the WCF like they always do and advance to Finals. Blazers flukishly win 1 game @ Staples and win all their games in Rose Garden like they always do v Lakers, hence their entrance into WCF.
If the Spurs really are going to be giving Duncan and others nights off during the regular season in order keep the team fresh for the playoffs then that's going to cost them a few games. I still think they'll win more than 54 games, but I doubt they'll make it to 60.
LA just won 65 last year, now have a championship swagger, upgraded at SF, and have a defender at the PG position. What's more they have a coach and leaders who have shown they can win multiple rings in a row.
No way their record is worse next season. They will flirt with 70.
Portland only tends to win at home in the reg season vs LA. Check the playoff numbers when it counts for real then try again.
Regular season is irrelevant except as it is used as a tool to be peaking as the playoffs begin. I believe the Spurs are carrying 7 bigs this year to sit Duncan and McDyess on alternating nights of B2B's. This will cost them some games, but it will also give an opportunity to develop Ian, Blair and Haislip. Even so I would expect them to win more games than last year. Most of the panel, I am sure, did not take this into account and thus came up with a ridiculous number for the Spurs.
Spurs regular season wins mean nothing. Win enough to get into the playoffs, and be healthy and playing well when you get there. Lakers in the first round would be a dream matchup in my book.
While all the contenders were bulking up in the post the Mavs were adding 2 and 3's like it was the only position on the floor. I guess they are going to try to win the day with small, small, smaller ball. Of course, that fits for the Mavs since their best big has no balls. Let's face it, you and I both know the only ring that Dirk is going to see is on the hand of his ex-girlfriend when she gets out of prison and comes over and slaps him into submission. And really, what was up with that? Were the only hot chicks Dirk could get Steve Nash's leftovers?
I don’t necessarily disagree with the order but I disagree with the win loss totals. I think Spurs will win close to 60 wins games this season.. Lakers on other hand will stay the course they did last yr more than likely but the drop off will be in the East. I don’t see Cav’s having the same season as last with the success in the record during regular season. Sure they might be number 1 seed but not in the 60’s plus wins like last yr..
Pretty much agree with the list, except for the number of wins. This is the year where the bottom teams are going to be losing about just every game except against each other and the 8 seed is in doubt. I still think the Suns will make it but would not be suprised to see GSW either. 8-11 is a crapshoot and no one cares about them. 8 will not get a lottery pick and most likely get swept by LA, barring all cir stances.
Last edited by Chieflion; 09-03-2009 at 09:38 AM.
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