Was The Admiral In The Big O's Class?
On Friday night, David Robinson will be inducted into the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame as part of the greatest class in history, along with Michael Jordan, John Stockton and others.
It seems like the common perception about The Admiral at this point is that, yes, he was a great player and certainly deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, but ultimately, he falls short of the NBA's very highest echelon of all-time players because he was not able to carry a team to a championship as the best player on his team, as Robinson didn't win a le until Tim Duncan came along to be San Antonio's go-to guy for the 1999 and 2003 runs.
Despite his two championships, an MVP award, and a Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year nod, the primary memory of David Robinson's career that many fans have is this: Hakeem Olajuwon's domination of him in 1995 Playoffs, in a matchup of the 1994 MVP (Hakeem) vs. the 1995 MVP (Admiral):
More specifically, people remember this one play - the ultimate Dream Shake, perhaps the single iconic play of not only Olajuwon's career, but possibly Robinson's as well:
[Ed. note: After I posted, I realized that that move above is technically more of an up-and-under than a classic Dream Shake. Here's the real deal - I love how Hakeem says it was "a soccer move" but it sounds like he's saying it was "a sucker move":]
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Oscar Robertson, meanwhile, was inducted in the Hall of Fame back in 1980, as part of possibly the second-best class ever, along with Jerry West, Jerry Lucas and others. The Big O's credentials as a Hall of Famer are unassailable, for sure.
Robertson is commonly considered to be among the very best players in NBA history - possibly even a contender for the greatest player ever to some - and the Big O is certainly considered to be a clear level above the likes of David Robinson. When SLAM unveiled its "New Top 50" rankings of the NBA's greatest players earlier this year, The Big O was at no. 5, while the Admiral was no. 25.
Yet, Robertson was never able to carry a team to a championship, either. Oscar won his only le after joining the Milwaukee Bucks for the 1970-71 season, on a team that was clearly led by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who averaged 31.7 points and 16.0 rebounds as he swept the league MVP/Finals MVP awards.
What is the primary memory we have of The Big O's career at this point? Of course, it is the magical, seemingly miraculous triple-double season of 1961-62, when he averaged 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 11.4 assists.
Now, here's where the context of modern statistical analysis comes into play. While Oscar's '61-62 numbers are mind-boggling to us, remember that the 1961-62 NBA season was the ultimate outlier statistically:
* For starters, Wilt dwarfed Oscar and everyone else in '61-62 with his 50.4 ppg and 25.7 rpg averages.
* Elgin Baylor's averages of 38.3 points, 18.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists were in Oscar's league overall, though Elgin only played 48 games because he was called to active duty in the Army Reserves and could only play in the NBA while on a weekend pass.
* Walt Bellamy (31.6 and 19.0) and Bob Pet (31.1 and 18.7) posted some pretty good numbers of their own, and Bill Russell threw in 23.6 rebounds per game for good measure.
The point is that it was an entirely different era, when many more shots per game were taken (107.7 then vs. 80.9 now), and thus there was a *much* greater opportunity to ac ulate stats which are fairly unthinkable in the NBA of 2009.
Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference did some great work in March in translating statistics based on the different paces of the game between 1962 and 2009. Oscar's 1961-62 averages would look like this if he played at the pace of 2008-09: 22.0 pts, 8.9 reb, 8.1 ast. Very good numbers, for sure, but not mind-blowing.
Meanwhile, if LeBron James had been able to play at the pace of the 1961-62 game, his 2008-09 numbers would have looked something like this: 39.8 pts, 10.6 reb, 10.1 ast.
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What we're trying to get at is this: despite the fact that Oscar not only averaged a triple-double in 1961-62, but also did so ulatively over his first six seasons combined if you total up his numbers, David Robinson was still a more statistically dominant player in the context of his time.
Robinson led the NBA in PER for three years running with exceptional marks of 30.7 ('93-94), 29.1 ('94-95) and 29.7 ('95-96). For his career, the Admiral's PER was 26.18, which ranks 4th all-time.
Oscar Robertson, meanwhile, never led the NBA in PER. He finished 2nd behind Wilt Chamberlain four years running ('63-64 to '66-67). His single-season best was 27.6 in '63-64, and he finished just 4th in his triple-double season of '61-62, with a 26.0 mark. Oscar's 23.18 career PER ranks 20th all-time.
(Note: Steals, blocks, and turnovers were not official NBA stats, nor were rebounds broken into off/def until the very end of Oscar's career, so there's a little bit of an apples/oranges quality to his PER compared to Robinson's - maybe more of a Granny Smith/Fuji gradation, actually.)
Now, I'm sure many of you are up in arms that I've brought PER into the discussion. "There's no way you can judge that one player is better than another just based on PER!" I can hear it, I swear, and I agree completely.
As I've written in this space before, I do not believe that PER is a be-all, end-all stat which provides a definitive ranking of players. But I *do* believe that PER is very effective for what it is: a one-number expression of all the stats which appear in the box score. And I think that PER is especially good for comparing statistical performance across different years - it offers a great way to cut through the peculiarities of different eras, and measure statistical production against the league average in a given context and time.
That's the thing: the argument in favor of Oscar Robertson as an all-time top 10 or top 5 player relies heavily on the perception of his box-score stats, headlined by that gleaming triple-double, yet David Robinson's box-score stats were just as good at the very least. If questions about mystical, intangible qualities about being a winner are going to be applied to Robinson, then they should be applied to Robertson as well.
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I'm of the camp who thinks that the quality of one's teammates is extremely underrated when evaluating how much of a "winner" an individual is (see: "Garnett, Kevin"), but if you want to talk about being a winner, the Big O certainly did not outdo the Admiral. Take a look at team records for Oscar's Cincy years (before he left for Milwaukee) vs. David's San Antonio years before Duncan arrived.
Cincinnati Royals:
60-61: 33-46, missed playoffs
61-62: 43-37, lost West semis
62-63: 42-38, lost East finals
63-64: 55-25, lost East finals
64-65: 48-32, lost East semis
65-66: 45-35, lost East semis
66-67: 39-42, lost East semis
67-68: 39-43, missed playoffs
68-69: 41-41, missed playoffs
69-70: 36-46, missed playoffs
Avg: 42-39
[Note: Conference semis were all first-round series in these years.]
San Antonio Spurs
89-90: 56-26, lost West semis
90-91: 55-27, lost West 1st rd
91-92: 47-35, lost West 1st rd
92-93: 49-33, lost West semis
93-94: 55-27, lost West 1st rd
94-95: 62-20, lost West finals
95-96: 59-23, lost West semis
96-97: 20-62, missed playoffs
Avg: 50-32
Of course, the average wins would be a few games higher if not for the 1996-97 season, in which Robinson played just 6 games due to injury, but then again, the Admiral likely wouldn't have any rings without that disastrous season, which allowed S.A. to win the Duncan lottery.
Let's also note that both players saw a decline in career playoff PER (Admiral 23.0, Big O 21.0) compared to regular-season PER.
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Now, after all this, are we trying to say that David Robinson was a better player than Oscar Robertson? Nope. We realize that trying to compare a 7-foot center and a 6-5 guard from different eras is largely an exercise in folly, and we understand there are subjective factors in play.
We forgive Oscar a little because he had to go up against stacked Celtics teams year after year. Meanwhile, Hakeem's ownership of the non-Jordan years of '94 and '95, and his domination of the Admiral in 1995, definitely help make us inclined to rank Olajuwon over Robinson on the all-time list.
And it's probably far too late to say this, but we're not trying to kill Oscar here, really. Ultimately, we'd still rank him ahead of Robinson, but they'd probably both be closer to 15 than 5 vs. 25.
This post is not meant to be about Oscar, it's meant to be about David Robinson. While his dreadful two weeks vs. Hakeem in 1995 are certainly a part of the story, that period should be considered as just a part of his overall story rather than the entirety of it.
What we're mainly trying to say is that we think David Robinson is probably better than you remember him, and probably deserves to be ranked higher than you are ranking him.
The Painted Area congratulates David Robinson on his impending induction into the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.
Listen stick. Do you really expect anyone to read this comically long post? Anyway, hakeem won their championships when jordan took his time off to try baseball. Argument over, off, you lose. As far as Robinson not being able to win without help, WHO THE HAS EVER WON WITHOUT HELP?! Please enlighten me cause it sure as wasn't hakeem.
/\ /\ /\ If you read the article you would see that the writer compares Robinson very favorably with Oscar Robertson.
Link:
http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2...-os-class.html
That is an absolutely exceptional breakdown...it's not just per though, any statistical breakdown proves David Robinson pretty much played at a level matched by only a handful of players in history...he had an extremely efficient game and near unmatched versatility, and beyond all that he was probably smarter and more aware of how he was impacting the game than the coaches, players and fans watching his play.
I'm pretty much at the conclusion that the two most overrated players in NBA history are Kareem Abduul Jabbar(I'm just now beginning to decide this) and Shaquille O'neal.
David Robinson couldn't win a le without Tim Duncan?
Well Kareem didn't win out with Oscar Robertson or Magic Johnson either...these were two guys that were the NBA's all time assist leaders.
And Shaq hasn't won without Kobe Bryant or Dwayne...
People...understand this...
If you take Vinny Del Negro off the 95 Spurs and replace him with Kobe Bryant or Dwayne Wade...I promise you, it would have made a difference in the two games the Spurs didn't win that they needed too.
And believe it or not...if you take Avery Johnson off the Spurs and replace him with Magic Johnson or Oscar Robertson...things will change, I promise.
I can also promise you that the Lakers do not win 5 NBA championships in the 1980's if you take Magic Johnson off of them and replace him with Avery Johnson.
I also just have...I don't know, call it a gut feeling, that just maybe the Lakers have a tough time pulling off a 3peat if you take Kobe Bryant off that team and replace him with Vinny Del Negro...
In fact, I bet money that if you take Kobe off last years Lakers team and replace him with Vinny Del Nego, it would have taken them more games to clinch that le season. It's just one of those things you feel strongly about, you know?
I know these are outlandish claims...but I think they have just a tad bit of merit to anyone with something other than excrement in their brain cavity.
Last edited by whottt; 09-09-2009 at 07:53 PM.
What's the point of reading a long article that actually tackles an issue fairly when you can immediately jump to knee-jerk ranting?
(Not you Whott.)
I thought there was a rule about not posting videos of that playoff series around these parts?
This was a blog post... i didnt write it. So thanks for the classy comment.
FYI: the link is http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2...-os-class.html
D-Rob was like no other. Not just because of what he did on the court. What he's done and what he does off the court are even more amazing and that's what matters to him most, which can't be said for almost all professional athletes.
Sadly, David's career is ultimately going to be judged by that series against Hakeem. I believe that defining of a player's career, especially one with such tremendous physical talent like D-Rob, is unfair. Anyone that ever saw David play, and has rational thinking, can agree that he could hang with any dominant big-man of any era. I'm grateful to have seen him play in his prime.
class is my middle name
The OP made reference to SLAM magazine's new Top 50. I went and checked out the list, and it has Shaq listed at 4. Comical. The Top 5 is as follows, in whatever order you want.
Jordan, Wilt, Russell, Magic and Kareem. All of them are identified by 1 name.
Shaq may crack the Top 10 (I say he does) but he still doesn't rank higher than Duncan because Duncan has a longer stay at the top and has a better winning percentage than Shaq both in the regular season and post season.
That was really a great way to view the career achievements of the Admiral. Look, nobody could win with no help, not even the great Big O. Robinson took his teams to more success, with less help, than anyone in the history of the league.
And I agree with Whott (at least on this one point), Shaq is the most overrated player in this history of the league. He had the physical attributes of a Wilt Chamberlain, but he never dominated like Wilt did, he never won like Wilt did. In fact, two of his four championships were won because of two extremely controversial 4th quarters during elimination games (Game 6 vs. Kings in 02, and Game 7 vs. Blazers in 00). For some unexplained reasons, the Lakers won close games, both times, with a ridiculous amount of FTs in the 4th quarter. Another one of his championship was riding the coattails of Wade, again, with controversial calls at the end of critical game.
For a man that talented, he led the league in scoring once, never led the NBA in rebounding or blocks, coasted through the regular season multiple times, played limited defense through most of his career, tore down at least 2 franchises with he petty imaginary feud with teammates who helped him get to the finals/win the whole thing. Shaq is not the 4th best of all time, he isn't the fourth best center of all time.
I really love Olajuwon, which hurts me to admit because I am a Spurs fan and David Robinson is my all-time favorite player. The fact is that Olajuwon had a better supporting cast than Dave, but he did "Dream Shake" him out of his sneakers a few times.
You left out that Shaq was swept out of the playoffs, every single year of his first 7 years in the league.
It's not even that...I watched David Robinson kicks Shaq's ass off the court Shaq's first 4 or 5 years in the league, he was 7-1 VS Shaq and even when Robinson was broken down he held Shaq to his playoff lows every single time they met in the post season....and when Robinson was given the ball against Shaq(like game 3 of the 2001 WCF) on his last ing legs Shaq couldn't defend him any better than he could in 1994.
Check out the roster of this Lakers team here:
Shaquille O'neal
Eddie Jones
Kobe Bryant
Nick Van Exel
Rick Fox
Elden Campbell
Robert Horry
Derek Fisher
Mario Bennett
Corie Blount
Sean Rooks
Jon Barry
Shea Seals
That was Shaq's team smack dab in his prime and all his key teamates except Kobe and Fisher were in their primes as well...
That is 3 ing All Stars, in their prime, surrounding, the alleged most dominant player of all time...with Kobe Bryant and the most clutch role player in NBA history thrown in for good measure...not to mention the core of the teams that would win 3 championships.
You know what happened to them?
They got ing swept out of the playoffs by the Utah Jazz...like trash.
Yet David is soft because the Jazz beat him with AJ and Vinny?
Incidentally, Duncan and Robinson played the Jazz that year too and lost, with AJ and Vinny...but they didn't get swept like Shaq did.
Just like David didn't get swept in 95, like Shaq did...when he had Horace Grant and Penny Hardaway at his peak.
David Robinson never got swept on any team he was the Superstar on...ever.
You give me Phil Jackson Kobe Bryant Robert Horry, Fisher and all those guys, and I probably don't get swept.
Over-rated.
And Magic Johnson I don't care what masure you want to use, he's at worst the 3rd best player in NBA history, I think he's either 1b alongside Chamberlain or 2 behind him, that dude could take a team to the playoffs with me playing Center. Kareem aint all that either, he wasn't winning les all by himself and anyone that says he was. Do not insult my intelligence.
Last edited by whottt; 09-11-2009 at 12:33 AM.
I always thought that Magic was #1 all time in terms of the way he directs and offense. He revolutionized the way the game was played, and there simply wasn't anyone who could pass and direct the game as well as Magic before or since him. The only person who could come close was Larry Bird.
Those two guys don't pass the ball to you when you are in position to shoot, they pass the ball to a spot that you should be at in order to get a high % shot. Nobody else could do it they way they did. It's like they saw the game 3 steps ahead.
As for Kareem, have to disagree with you, I think he's one of the top 5 all time. He played offense and defense like no other, and the thing that really put him over the top was his longevity. Yes, he missed the playoffs, but it's bound to happen during a 20year career.
With regards to Shaq, thanks for raising the swept point. I also remember Shaq holding a deep grudge against Robinson because he just couldn't beat him the first few years. Shaq finally did it with Penny, Scott, Anderson and Grant around him, while Robinson had Rodman, AJ and Del Negro.
EDIT: Shaq outscored Robinson only ONCE during their head to heads before Robinson's back gave. That was one game in 5 years.
I stop reading on the second sentence...
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