The Return of Protectionism

[Winehole23]

Do we really need more of a reason?

More of one than stale piffle about the march of progress and "new economy" claptrap, yeah.

[DarkReign]

You can say that about everything. We invented the airplane and the car yet other people around the world make those as well, correct?

..and be honest now, Manny.

Do you think there is going to be some technological advantage like making airplanes that could even possibly supplant the portion of the US economy dedicated to the manufacture of sellable goods currently produced?

Airplanes, even if the US economy made every single plane flying the skies, wouldnt amount to on a shingle. You could add every train, every bus, every mode of transportation and it wouldnt amount to maybe half the US economy as it currently sits.

This is the very definition of too big to fail.

[DarkReign]

DR, what do you believe should be done? I've seen you be critical of the elimination of manufacturing jobs in this country but I'm wondering what your view on saving them is?

Fair question.

My opinion on the matter is simple and broad. There is no nation capable of existence without the means to sell the fruits of their production.

This holds true, whether through war or enterpise, throughout history.

We, as a nation, cannot exist on the fruits of scientific endeavor alone. To pretend that we can is oblivious, to be honest.

Its the pinnacle of arrogance, imo, that we should feel so compelled in the first place. Countries like India, although far different in every way, whom export professional-class employees like Korea does electronics, do not even pretend such independence. Thats why American manufacturers find favorable profit conditions in relation to an equivalent in the States.

Their standard of living and cost of living is FAR lower than the US can maintain compe ively (currently, we are being conditioned to accept otherwise though). We either raise theirs or lower ours, simple. The former is best left to TheoryWorld and the latter is actually believable, as sad as that is.

There is no easy solution, unless of course we emulate another model that requires a large portion of your country's (under)grad students be exported to other countries for their superior education opportunities.

My point is, we either protect what we have currently, via tariffs and/or other means, or we watch the foundation of our economic superiority fall under a false pretense of an inadequately suited population as judged by people who fancy themselves intellectuals with favorable views about the future.

Prognostication is best left to gypsies, especially in the face of an unprecedented economic situation that cannot be judged thoroughly at this point. People need to start preparing for "worst case scenario" and the longer this reality is put off, just the same as our elected leadership pretends on a sessional basis, the harder this reality is going to kick us in the collective groin.

To be clear and not so vague, our relationship with China/3rd world economies is a fleeting one. The end game is not in doubt with the current ruleset, it will lead to the utter collapse of this nation.

Especially when the purported solution is egaltarian rubbish about raising the education bar in this country in pretty much 20 years at bare minimum (to stay compe ive). I wonder if one considers that 20 years is a grand total just less than two graduating generations, hardly enough time to save the empire.

Ive argued with, I believe 101A, on protectionist policies and iirc, I came away with no internal resolution. Let me say that I am not adverse to the reasonings of another perspective, but said perspective had better have more substance and short-to-midterm gain than the one offered here. Its the longview but its also the deferred, kick-the-can method employed by this country in every one of its short term problems in an effort to prolong the present.

I dont particularly like protectionism, but the reprecussions associated with the mention of reduced industrialization arent being given their full-weight in an argument with another who doesnt agree upon its severe importance.

[MannyIsGod]

..and be honest now, Manny.

Do you think there is going to be some technological advantage like making airplanes that could even possibly supplant the portion of the US economy dedicated to the manufacture of sellable goods currently produced?

Airplanes, even if the US economy made every single plane flying the skies, wouldnt amount to on a shingle. You could add every train, every bus, every mode of transportation and it wouldnt amount to maybe half the US economy as it currently sits.

This is the very definition of too big to fail.

I don't know, Dark. I do know that we won't be able to compete with making things with other countries when their populations are willing to do it for much less. I do know that as technology has improved the efficiency of a single worker is now enough to accomplish what took many workers in the past thereby eliminating jobs. I do know that manufacturing has been declining here for quite some time and that it isn't a policy decision by anyone but simple economics.

I've never said we're going to come out of this a better country or that everyone will be better off. I've said its an inevitable problem so you'd better do your damned best to adapt to it. Our country is hanging by a rope that is frayed and coming undone and instead of trying to climb up it we're trying to knit it back together so we can keep hanging.

[LnGrrrR]

Here's a thought too. If we were to ins ute tariffs, would more employers keep factories here rather than shipping them overseas, thereby creating more jobs?

[DarrinS]

It should be noted that China did not pass the US to become the number one exporter -- they passed Germany to become the number one exporter.

[coyotes_geek]

Here's a thought too. If we were to ins ute tariffs, would more employers keep factories here rather than shipping them overseas, thereby creating more jobs?

Depends. If the cost savings between producing goods overseas and producing goods here isn't all that much then tariffs could be used to make it financially beneficial for employers to keep jobs in the U.S. If the cost difference is big enough then tariffs lose their effectiveness because you're stuck having to choose between placing a tariff that is so high that it will kill consumer demand for the product, or one that isn't big enough to negate all of the cost savings from going overseas. That's an equation that's going to vary company by company, product by product.

[DarkReign]

I don't know, Dark. I do know that we won't be able to compete with making things with other countries when their populations are willing to do it for much less. I do know that as technology has improved the efficiency of a single worker is now enough to accomplish what took many workers in the past thereby eliminating jobs. I do know that manufacturing has been declining here for quite some time and that it isn't a policy decision by anyone but simple economics.

I've never said we're going to come out of this a better country or that everyone will be better off. I've said its an inevitable problem so you'd better do your damned best to adapt to it. Our country is hanging by a rope that is frayed and coming undone and instead of trying to climb up it we're trying to knit it back together so we can keep hanging.

Eh, youre right. Youre absolutely right. I never disagreed with your premise, what you say has always been true, that our country had better learn to adapt to a changing marketplace.

What I disagree with you on is the means to change that, or to be more clear, how to stem the inevitable of our current path.

You seem (correct me if I am wrong) to think any action to keep manufacturing inside our own borders as counter-productive or maybe even irrational.

Whereas I see manufacturing as absolutely necessary in every sense of the word.

It doesnt make me right and you wrong, its just a completely divergent opinion on the impact of a country that only produces its weapons of war, buying everything else from somewhere else with wealth created by.....?

[Winehole23]

It doesnt make me right and you wrong, its just a completely divergent opinion on the impact of a country that only produces its weapons of war, buying everything else from somewhere else with wealth created by.....?

The Chinese glut of savings and debt bubbles.

Oops. The bubble burst. That leaves us with only the Chinese and the Fed.