Fantasy talk

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

So, just had my first draft of the year. I'm in both Dynasty Leagues, and have played a lot of h2h, but this was my first roto draft. It is a 9 cat league (the usual) with 13 teams, and I was picking 11th:

1 - Al Jefferson
2 - Joe Johnson
3 - Rajon Rondo
4 - Nene
5 - Anthony Randolph
6 - John Salmons
7 - Wilson Chandler
8 - Mario Chalmers
9 - Jamal Crawford
10 - Kendrick Perkins
11 - Aaaron Brooks
12 - Andres Nocioni
13 - Carl Landry

I went for a lot of players that I think have a chance to emerge this year - Randolph, Chandler, Chalmers, Brooks, Landry. You could argue that I took Nene and Randolph too early, but there were 24 picks to wait and I was scared they'd disappear.

I look strong in stls and weak in boards, but pretty compe ive in most other contributing cats, and around the middle of the pack for %s and TOs as I'd hoped.

With a bit of luck I might come 3rd or something.

[DPG21920]

I think Randolph is a guy who is going to fly off the board this year. He is everyone's sleeper. I personally have him ranked as a 6th rounder, but 5th is not a stretch.

Choosing Big Al scares me because of the injury. I hate picking players in the first 2 rounds like that, but he is hard to pass up if you believe reports he will be back for camp or sometime shortly after.

I have never played Roto (not nearly as much fun imo), but the strategy cannot be that different from H2H when you think about it. The only major difference being that it is less "fluky". Also, I guess you might try and draft a more well rounded team so that you never tank categories.

Nocioni ended the year pretty hot, but I wonder where he will end up this year? I don't see why Sac keeps him or plays him when they won't win and they have young guys to develop.

Crawford is another guy I am really anxious to see how things work out. He is "behind" Bibby and I wonder how that effects his value. I am sure Joe will be playing 38-40 MPG so there is not a lot of room at SG for him.

I also think the Rockets are going to be a hot fantasy team players wise. Brooks should get a bump. Ariza is going to go higher. I am wondering if they will slide Scola to center and start Landry? He is a guy I have been thinking about for the later rounds as well.

[Chieflion]

With Jordan Hill and Danilo Gallinari playing full time for the Knicks, I don't see Wilson Chandler contributing a lot this year, just my opinion.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I think Randolph is a guy who is going to fly off the board this year. He is everyone's sleeper. I personally have him ranked as a 6th rounder, but 5th is not a stretch.

Choosing Big Al scares me because of the injury. I hate picking players in the first 2 rounds like that, but he is hard to pass up if you believe reports he will be back for camp or sometime shortly after.

I have never played Roto (not nearly as much fun imo), but the strategy cannot be that different from H2H when you think about it. The only major difference being that it is less "fluky". Also, I guess you might try and draft a more well rounded team so that you never tank categories.

Nocioni ended the year pretty hot, but I wonder where he will end up this year? I don't see why Sac keeps him or plays him when they won't win and they have young guys to develop.

Crawford is another guy I am really anxious to see how things work out. He is "behind" Bibby and I wonder how that effects his value. I am sure Joe will be playing 38-40 MPG so there is not a lot of room at SG for him.

I also think the Rockets are going to be a hot fantasy team players wise. Brooks should get a bump. Ariza is going to go higher. I am wondering if they will slide Scola to center and start Landry? He is a guy I have been thinking about for the later rounds as well.

Actually, roto is VERY different from h2h because if you write off a category or two it's hard to win unless you're top of most of the others. After this experience, I'd say drafting h2h is a lot easier than drafting roto.

As for h2h being more fun, I think roto is more involved, so it depends on how seriously you like to take it. This year I'm playing 2 h2hs, 2 rotos and both DLs, so I'm playing every different type of fantasy game, and they are all a different challenge. Worst thing about h2h is that you can dominate the regular season and then get rolled by cir stances like players sitting near the end of the season. That happened to me in both h2h leagues last year.

Yeah, Randolph might be a 16/10/1/1.7 kinda guy this year, at least that's why I took him when I did. I think Chalmers and Brooks will both be great too, and I took Noc because I think he might start after his strong end to last season (hope so - he's never had a chance to start consistently and I wanna see what he can do... same with Landry).

For this team I need more points and boards, but they are the two easiest to pick up, and I may be fine if Brooks and Chalmers come on as I think they will.

PS Crawford put up surprising numbers as a 3rd guard at GS last year, and he may well do the same this year. That second unit needs a spark plug, and he's it... I hope.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

With Jordan Hill and Danilo Gallinari playing full time for the Knicks, I don't see Wilson Chandler contributing a lot this year, just my opinion.

You think Gallinari will take Chandler's minutes? I hope not, but you may be right. I might try to offload him for more points.

[Chieflion]

You think Gallinari will take Chandler's minutes? I hope not, but you may be right. I might try to offload him for more points.

Unless they force feed Jordan Hill center minutes, Gallinari should produce, seeing he was the 6th pick in that strong draft and was hampered by his back injury plus he is the only sharpshooter on that team. Danilo shot 44.4% from three and 90% from the free throw line last season. Chandler would need to step up next season to improve his stats in my opinion.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Unless they force feed Jordan Hill center minutes, Gallinari should produce, seeing he was the 6th pick in that strong draft and was hampered by his back injury plus he is the only sharpshooter on that team. Danilo shot 44.4% from three and 90% from the free throw line last season. Chandler would need to step up next season to improve his stats in my opinion.

Actually, I picked him because I figure he will be better than last year and that Gallinari will back him up. I also figured Hill would back up Lee at C.

[Trainwreck2100]

an asian and a redhead in a bed full of money

[Chieflion]

Actually, I picked him because I figure he will be better than last year and that Gallinari will back him up. I also figured Hill would back up Lee at C.

Lee is not around, should be signed soon. Eddy Curry has been reported to be working out. Harrington and Hughes will be bags trying to make a statement for their next contract which is worrying. Plus the situation with Nate. Either way, if I am participating in the fantasy draft, I would try to move away from Knicks players because of the variable and volatile factors.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

an asian and a redhead in a bed full of money

I like redheads too.

[DPG21920]

Ya, Jamal put up good numbers, but he was still getting 38 MPG. I don't see that happening this year.

Say Bibby gets 30 MPG (a 5 MPG reduction from last year). Joe gets 38 (I don't see him losing minutes). That leaves Jamal only 28 MPG. Maybe if you think they will reduce Bibby more than that, Jamal's minutes might creep up to last years level. It will be interesting for sure, and I wonder what they will do.

I agree Noc got hot at the end of last year, but do the Kings have incentive to play him over getting their youth (Omri Casspi, Tyreke Evans, Francisco Garcia, Donte Greene, Spencer Hawes, Kevin Martin, Sean May, Sergio Rodriguez and Jason Thompson) plenty of minutes? That is a ton of youth players to develop and the Kings have no chance at sniffing the playoffs.

[Chieflion]

Wasn't there anyone else better than Chalmers when you were picking? I understand the steals part but your team can't seem to block anyone.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Wasn't there anyone else better than Chalmers when you were picking? I understand the steals part but your team can't seem to block anyone.

I picked Chalmers for steals, 3s and assists, and I think he'll do a lot better this year than last given that he's a soph and now has O'Neal under the basket to pass to, and an improved Beasley. I was keeping track on a spreadsheet for the first time, and at that point I was way down on 3s and assists.

I'll get about 2bpg from Jefferson, about 1.5 from Randolph (at least - I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for 2+ a game)), 1.3 from Nene, 1.8 from Perkins. And Chandler gets about 1bpg. I wanted Birdman but he was taken 2 places ahead of where I would've got him.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Ya, Jamal put up good numbers, but he was still getting 38 MPG. I don't see that happening this year.

Say Bibby gets 30 MPG (a 5 MPG reduction from last year). Joe gets 38 (I don't see him losing minutes). That leaves Jamal only 28 MPG. Maybe if you think they will reduce Bibby more than that, Jamal's minutes might creep up to last years level. It will be interesting for sure, and I wonder what they will do.

I agree Noc got hot at the end of last year, but do the Kings have incentive to play him over getting their youth (Omri Casspi, Tyreke Evans, Francisco Garcia, Donte Greene, Spencer Hawes, Kevin Martin, Sean May, Sergio Rodriguez and Jason Thompson) plenty of minutes? That is a ton of youth players to develop and the Kings have no chance at sniffing the playoffs.

True, but picking him at that point in the draft means he's easy to drop. In fact, I won't have any problem dropping or trading any of those bottom 7, although I think Brooks and Chalmers will make their bones.

I also intend to trade. It's bloody hard drafting at this time of year with no idea what will happen to lineups during camp and the pre-season.

[DPG21920]

I think Chalmers will be good as well. Even if he does not improve, but just duplicates last year I would draft him there.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Twice I got gazumped by one pick, too. A good friend of mine was picking one spot ahead of my and screwed me. I wanted Diaw instead of Chandler, and Parker instead of Salmons.

[Chieflion]

Al Jefferson: 1.7 blocks (This is fine, but 2.0 is not the case, like you mentioned.)
Anthony Randolph: 1.2 blocks (I will see him block more next season.)
Nene: 1.3 blocks (Yep, you are correct, thought he might average 1.5 next season or at least maintain but 1.3 was his career high, the same thing for Al Jefferson.)
Kendrick Perkins: 2.0 blocks (Your strongest block-machine here, rebounds well too. But Rasheed Wallace taking minutes from him looms.)
Wilson Chandler: 0.9 blocks (Not bad.)

I was just wondering why you did not take Turiaf. (2.1 blocks in 21.5 minutes.)

[DPG21920]

Also, I wonder what the the Bulls will do with Deng/Salmons? Talk about a pickle. There are wayyyyyyy to many things to analyze in fantasy

[Chieflion]

Also, I wonder what the the Bulls will do with Deng/Salmons? Talk about a pickle. There are wayyyyyyy to many things to analyze in fantasy

I don't think that is a problem since Gordon is gone. I am more worried about Hinrich's role.

Who is going to start in Detroit? Hamilton or Gordon? How is Stuckey going to play out? Charlie-V getting more minutes, will he score a lot?

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Al Jefferson: 1.7 blocks (This is fine, but 2.0 is not the case, like you mentioned.)
Anthony Randolph: 1.2 blocks (I will see him block more next season.)
Nene: 1.3 blocks (Yep, you are correct, thought he might average 1.5 next season or at least maintain but 1.3 was his career high, the same thing for Al Jefferson.)
Kendrick Perkins: 2.0 blocks (Your strongest block-machine here, rebounds well too. But Rasheed Wallace taking minutes from him looms.)
Wilson Chandler: 0.9 blocks (Not bad.)

I was just wondering why you did not take Turiaf. (2.1 blocks in 21.5 minutes.)

I think Al Jeff will up his blocks a little to around 1.8-2 this year, but you're right he was at 1.7 last year. And I think Randolph will explode his block numbers this year - kid is on a mission.

Yeah, I could have grabbed Turiaf, and I still could because he went undrafted. I took Landry instead because rebounds is my weakest cat, and if he starts he could be the kinda guy who unexpectedly averages 8+ boards.

A lot of fantasy is predictions and calculated gambles, you can't just base things on last year's stats, or career stats.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Also, I wonder what the the Bulls will do with Deng/Salmons? Talk about a pickle. There are wayyyyyyy to many things to analyze in fantasy

Salmons was fantastic to end the season. He'll start at the 2, Deng at the 3, Hinrich will back up the 1 and 2.

[DPG21920]

I think Charlie V and Gordon will remain the same. They were the big signings.

Salmons was brought in because of his ability and because Deng was hurt I am assuming. With Deng back, maybe they slide Salmons to SG?

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

The more I look at this team, the more comfortable I am with it.

I'm pretty damn sure we'll see vast improvement out of Randolph, Chalmers, Brooks and Landry, who are either sophs or going to be starters for the season for the first time. I think Chandler and Salmons will be a little better than they were last year, and both were very solid. I think we'll see business as usual from JJ and Rajon (although the latter could also continue to grow), and I see a 24/12/2 for Al Jeff. Crawford is a big ?, but all I need him to do is about what he did last year at a better % (which will happen because he's on a better team). Nocioni is entirely expendable. best trading chips at this point are Chandler/Salmons and Chalmers/Brooks, as most of the others have very specific roles that are hard to replicate.

Should be an interesting season.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I think Charlie V and Gordon will remain the same. They were the big signings.

Salmons was brought in because of his ability and because Deng was hurt I am assuming. With Deng back, maybe they slide Salmons to SG?

Not maybe, definitely.

[DPG21920]

Big question: Memphis?

How will these players fare (Iverson/OJ/Gay/Conley) and how does Iverson effect the latter?

Also, how does Randolph and Thabeet effect Marc Gasol?

What are your opinions on Arenas and Michael Redd?