5 Second Rounders Who Will Make A Difference

[exstatic]

You have to consider, the draft in general is a gamble. Everything is a gamble.

A lot of teams draft players that have the raw ability to wreak havoc but are not yet, nor may they ever be, quite there physically; a lot of teams also draft these "potential" picks too high (Grizzlies, I'm looking at you).

Brandon Jennings has the physical skills, and the body, but his at ude is a BIG "if" hanging over his future. Again, drafted very high; he was a calculated gamble.

You see foreign guys crop up all over that have played very well professional overseas and teams are hoping their skills convert. Jian Liang (sp?) a good example. He's a gamble, but again, a calculated one.

So then you look at a guy like Blair, a guy with the skills, the body, and the at ude that will directly translate to the NBA. His health issues provide the gamble. So let's say you get 3-4 years and a good role player out of him, isn't that worth it alone?

But teams get scared by the Bynums and Odens of the league. They had health risks, and it doomed them. But Bynum was also a risk; only 18 when he was taken. Oden was receiving AARP checks before he graduated high school.

It amazes me that people passed on Blair.

And I'm so happy they did.

I can see not picking Blair where he was projected (late lottery), but for heaven's sake, taking a flyer on him the last 5 picks of the first round is a 2 year commitment at $1M or less per year. I'm glad that teams were that stupid/scared.

[mountainballer]

Young is good, but I don't think he will see enough minutes.
Gay is a minutes eater, he will not play less than 38MPG and thank's to Mayo and AI he also will only play at SF. Young likely won't see more than 10-12 MPG in his rookie season, not enough to make an impact.

Budinger is in a similar situation, if the reports that t-mac is back when the season starts are true. he will fight for some minutes with Taylor and White. (Taylor might go to D-league though). I also can't see him get more minutes than 15.

Taylor Griffin? must be a joke.

Meeks? why not, much rebuilding in Milwaukee, he might find himself in a good situation for PT, especially when Redd isn't 100% healthy.

Blair could definitely become the most impact 2nd rounder. he should be the 3rd best big in the rotation soon and Pop also won't overplay either Tim or Dice. good chance for him to get 20-25MPG and deliver at least impressive rebounding numbers.

[TIMMYD!]

Other teams must be rolling around in bed for not taking Grizzly Blair

[exstatic]

Not really. Few teams didn't have the chance to draft Blair. But maybe 2 years from now the other teams will regret it.

Actually, any team that had a pick and passed on him, and struggling on the boards may regret it THIS year.

[lurker23]

No one is kicking themselves about DeJuan Blair right now. The reason they didn't pick him is still there: the threat of a career-ending knee injury happening at any moment. Those teams (or at least their doctors) probably still think Blair is a ticking time bomb. It won't be until he has a good year or two and remains reasonably healthy that they start thinking that they were wrong.

[exstatic]

No one is kicking themselves about DeJuan Blair right now. The reason they didn't pick him is still there: the threat of a career-ending knee injury happening at any moment. Those teams (or at least their doctors) probably still think Blair is a ticking time bomb. It won't be until he has a good year or two and remains reasonably healthy that they start thinking that they were wrong.

Anyone can suffer a catastrophic knee injury at any time. Think about it: the Spurs were under NO obligation to give him anything other than the minimum non-guaranteed deal that 98% of second rounders get. Yet they came across with late first round money, 2 years guaranteed, 3rd year partial. Why would they do that if he were as fragile as you seem to think? I'm sure their doctors gave him a thorough exam, focusing on the knees. The Spurs don't gamble, especially when every dollar is doubled.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

The biggest thing for SA is that they aren't looking for a franchise/lift the heavy load type player that most teams with a lottery pick are usually looking for.

If someone told SA they would only get 3 solid years from D. Blair before his knees go to I can promise you they'd still draft him. They are going all out for the remainder of the Duncan window. If Blair can make an impact immediately during that time, and ends up being injury prone post Duncan's retirement, then so be it, he would have already served his purpose by that point

[lurker23]

Anyone can suffer a catastrophic knee injury at any time. Think about it: the Spurs were under NO obligation to give him anything other than the minimum non-guaranteed deal that 98% of second rounders get. Yet they came across with late first round money, 2 years guaranteed, 3rd year partial. Why would they do that if he were as fragile as you seem to think? I'm sure their doctors gave him a thorough exam, focusing on the knees. The Spurs don't gamble, especially when every dollar is doubled.

I'm not saying that *I* think the Spurs are gambling too much with Blair. As far as I'm concerned, the fact that his injuries were in high school and he played two full seasons of event-free college basketball is proof enough for me. However, doctors across much of the NBA looked that MRIs that were done during combines, saw that he had no discernible ACLs, and red-flagged Blair. The doctors won't care too much five years down the line if they were wrong; it was a much better play for them risk/reward-wise to cover their butts.

I'm sure there are a lot of coaches in the NBA who wanted to draft Blair, but because of these medical results couldn't get the go-ahead to use a first round pick on him (guaranteed money). Beyond the first round, only a small handful of teams passed on him; they likely did so for medical reasons, though the idea still baffles me a bit, since you're not risking very much using a second round pick. The Spurs saw this opportunity and jumped on it.

As far as Blair's contract goes, I think the Spurs made a pretty smart move. Yes, they could have signed him for a couple years for the minimum, but I doubt Blair and his agent would have agreed to more than 2 years, since they believe he's worth more than that. If they proved to be correct, then the Spurs would have limited rights to him and would likely have to bid high to get him back. Instead, they used the extra money to sign him to a longer deal, which has limited risk in the extended term ($500,000 guaranteed in the 3rd year; 4th year fully unguaranteed). If he does well, they have him for all of Duncan's window, and have Bird rights to him. If he is plagued by injuries, they ditch him after two years and move on.

[K-State Spur]

Look for Griffin to be a Najera-type player. He will hustle, frustrate opponents, rebound, pass well, and can stroke the outside shot. He has a high basketball IQ.

he's not a great rebounder, passer, or outside shooter. not really even a 'good' college player in any of those categories.

in najera's last year at OU, he was 18.4 PPG/9.2 RPG/2 APG. In fact, his numbers as a frosh were better than Griffin's as a SENIOR.

[Manufan909]

WTF does everyone see in Taylor? Both comparisons that have been made convincingly shot down, I just don't see it.

And I can't wait for Blair to beast and covince Pop to play him 25-30 mins a game. Screw Mahinmi, Bonner, or Haislip. I want this guy as the obvious 3rd big in the rotation, Mahinmi can be a distant 4th.