Reply With Quote
Anyone who even thinks Pop will let Jefferson take a large volume of shots obviously doesn't know Pop very well.
The Contending Spurs Fail to Miss Blair
The San Antonio Spurs won the NBA le in 2003, 2005, and 2007. Given this pattern, many expected the Spurs to contend in 2009. Instead, the team suffered its worst season since 1996-97, or the year before Tim Duncan came to San Antonio.
Reviewing the Spurs
Last season the Spurs scored 1.06 points per possession, a mark that ranks second best in the Duncan era. Unfortunately, their defense allowed 1.02 points per possession. This was the first time the Spurs – in the Duncan era – managed to surrender more than one point per possession. So the Spurs struggled, at least by San Antonio standards. The team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of 4.1 was actually better than anything ever done by the LA-San Diego Clippers, Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Bobcats, Charlotte Hornets, New Jersey Nets (without Jason Kidd), Washington Wizards (post 1970s), Golden State Warriors (post 1970s), and Denver Nuggets (post 1970s). Once again, though, the Spurs – in the Duncan era – expect to do better.
Table One: San Antonio Spurs in 2008-09
When we look at the players employed by San Antonio last season – reported in Table One – it quickly becomes clear where the Spurs faltered. The key number is 44, or the number of games played by Manu Ginobili. Last season Ginobili led the Spurs in WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] with a 0.335 mark. But that production was unavailable for 38 games, and consequently, the Spurs struggled – by San Antonio standards – in the regular season, and were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
Contending Again?
In the off-season the Spurs added a number of new faces. The acquisition of Richard Jefferson is considered the most important, primarily because RJ scores. As noted last June, though, Jefferson is no longer a very productive NBA player. And the skill he brings – taking shots – is not something the Spurs really needed. Again, their offense last year was quite good.
After Jefferson arrived, though, the Spurs did add Antonio McDyess, a player who is quite productive. McDyess produced 11.0 wins last year with a 0.283 WP48. Average WP48 is 0.100, so McDyess was very good in 2008-09. In fact, he led the Pistons in Wins Produced. Unfortunately, he is now 35 years old. So it’s possible age will start impact his production.
The addition of Jefferson and McDyess gives the Spurs – according to ESPN.com – the following depth chart (Wins Produced and WP48 from the 2008-09 season):
Potential First String
PG: Tony Parker [8.5 Wins Produced, 0.166 WP48]
SG: Roger Mason [4.1 Wins Produced, 0.079 WP48]
SF: Richard Jefferson [3.9 Wins Produced, 0.064 WP48]
PF: Antonio McDyess [11.0 Wins Produced, 0.283 WP48]
C: Tim Duncan [13.9 Wins Produced, 0.265 WP48]
Potential Second String
PG: George Hill [1.0 Wins Produced, 0.039 WP48]
SG: Manu Ginobili [8.2 Wins Produced, 0.335 WP48]
SF: Michael Finley [3.2 Wins Produced, 0.066 WP48]
PF: Matt Bonner [6.3 Wins Produced, 0.158 WP48]
C: Theo Ratliff [0.6 Wins Produced, 0.052 WP48]
Missing on Blair
In addition to these ten players, the Spurs have also added Keith Bogans [3.8 Wins Produced, 0.145 WP48] and DeJuan Blair. Bogans gives the Spurs another productive backcourt performer. And Blair gives the Spurs… well, it’s not entirely clear what Blair will give.
Blair was the most productive player selected out of college in the 2009 draft; at least according to Position Adjusted Win Score. Blair, though, lasted until the second round because people were not sure he was entirely healthy. In Blair’s first preseason game, though, he grabbed 19 rebounds in 22 minutes. Yes, it is only one preseason game. But when a player nearly averages one rebound per-minute, we start to suspect
a. maybe Blair is healthy enough to play in the NBA, and
b. maybe Blair’s college numbers will translate into the NBA.
If both of these points are true, then the Spurs have an extremely productive player on their bench. It’s possible that will not matter much in 2009-10. After all, Blair is currently – according to ESPN.com – San Antonio’s third string power forward. But when we look to the future…
Yes, I know. It’s only one pre-season game. In the past, though, it was noted that 80% of Wins Produced in the NBA are produced by only 20% of the league’s players (i.e. the Pareto Principle applies to the NBA). The reason why so many teams fail to match the worst season in the Duncan era is because these teams fail to acquire many players who populate that 20%. It appears that Blair is going to be one of these players. And because doctors argued Blair is not entirely healthy, the Spurs were given such a player in the second round.
It’s possible the doctors are right. But it must be remembered, most of the players taken before Blair are going to be among the 80% of NBA players who only produce 20% of the wins. So what should a team look at in the draft…
a player who is healthy but will never produce much?, or
a player who can be extremely productive but may not last very long?
The answer seems fairly obvious. For many teams in the NBA, though, unproductive and healthy seems like the way to go. And this may be one reason why so many teams in the NBA look at the Spurs worst season in the Duncan era with envy.
Let me close by noting that if Ginobili is healthy (and the same is said about the other productive players San Antonio employs), the Spurs can contend for the Western Confernce le. Again, I think — assuming Andrew Bynum doesn’t return to what we briefly saw in 2007-08 — the Lakers have come back to the pack in the West. So the Spurs and Blazers will contend with the Lakers for the conference le (and this may not be the entire population of Western contenders). Once one of these teams reaches the finals, though, I expect the playoff run to end with a loss. Yes, I still think the NBA champion will come from the East.
- DJ
Anyone who even thinks Pop will let Jefferson take a large volume of shots obviously doesn't know Pop very well.
I think Blair will get his chance. It would be cool to limit Duncans and Dices minutes as much as possible. I am curious to see what he brings to the table. It will be interesting to see.
The NBA Champion will not come from the East...
I just want Blair to get somewhere around 20 mins a game at the very least.
Almost everyone nationally is still sleeping on Hill.
WTF?
No seriously WTF? Jefferson was the only good player on his team last year due to injuries. You can't take a role player and expect him lead his team and have a high wins produced stat. To call his statistically best year, his least productive year is mind bogglingly stupid.As noted last June, though, Jefferson is no longer a very productive NBA player. And the skill he brings – taking shots – is not something the Spurs really needed.
[3.9 Wins Produced, 0.064 WP48]
Chris Webber said that the Celtics will be the Champions.
Chris Webber is a bandwagoner.
Chris Webber is as dumb as a post.
I think he'll get it, just to save Timmy, McDyess and Theo some time for the playoffs.
I don't know how they calculate "wins per 48 minutes," but Jefferson might have a lower score due in part to the lousy teams he was on. It's harder to win games when your teammates suck.
CROFL. Stats are so gay! WP48?? what the is that. queef bogans is a 1.45 yay!!
The Wins Produced Calculation
http://www.wagesofwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html
god, statisticians must hate their lives
Bonner is twice the NBA player Jefferson is.
WP48 says so.
that settles it. suck it bonner haters.
Berri won the Truehoop stat geek smackdown last year, and came in 3rd the previous time he participated (due to failing to include home court advantage in his calculations--the only difference between his method and the one eventual winner Kubatko used.) His numbers have let him build a three year record now of very accurately (i.e. way better than Holinger and the other ESPN "experts") predicting what W/L records are going to look like at the start of the season and how the playoffs turn out. So he's doing something right, and is worth paying attention to.
That said, there is a hole in the system with regards to defense. While defense is implicitly included in his team efficiency based analyses, it isn't well accounted for in his measure of individual players, which comes straight from the boxscore. We all know how important Bowen was to the Spurs, but his wp48 was consistently negative.
My rule of thumb: wp48 is an excellent way of seeing past the bias toward valuing scoring too heavily, but is best suited to looking at players who have a traditional or rounded game. The more of a specialist or system-specific role player the player is, the quirkier the wp48 results are likely to be. So I tend to buy the analysis of Jefferson, but view Bonner or Bowen with more su ion.
I tend not to buy any of it when trying to transfer the stats of one player to a different team.
Blair will be a beast for 15 to 20 minutes. Jefferson will find himself open so much, POP will tell him to let it fly. Hill will become a pg that other teams desire. Whomever survives camp, the Spurs will be playing up tempo on the offense and working on Spurs D for the playoffs.
I don't know. I mean, I hope you are right because I want to believe that Jefferson can be an efficient contributor in the Spurs system. But Berri is (1) a Pistons fan and (2) has written a lot about Allen Iverson as the classic example of a player who is overrated because he scores a lot, but does it inefficiently. So when the Billups/Iverson trade went down, Berri tracked it fairly closely throughout the year, and the end results in both directions were just what wp48 predicted they would be from the start. I personally think system makes a difference, but there is likely something constant in player's game that wp48 touches on.
One could argue that there's a character issue. Is the player under consideration the type to adjust his game for the good of the team? The more strongly you can believe that he is, the easier it is to think that statistical performance won't transfer. And I certainly think Jefferson is a higher character guy than Iverson.
The bottom line is that the Spurs have improved their starting 5 with Dice and Jefferson. The second unit will also be very competive with Blair, Ratliff, Hill, Finley, and Bonner. Include Haiplsip, Mahimni, and Hairston/ Williams and we are 14 deep. Ian wll be the first big in case of an injury and learn from Dice.
I agree..That Trophy is coming back to San Antonio this year. No matter how much the press is in love with LA...Also anybody who has followed the Spurs during the Popovich Era knows RJ will have to earn his keep with the team...he will not be given anything!
Let's hope Pop tries to get Jefferson to focus on his strengths - getting to the FT line and shooting corner 3s. If we can get that I think we'll be in pretty good shape.
No, RJ probably isn't what he used to be but he's still a lot better than what we've had recently. His addition is still a huge positive.
Most rookies struggling
Tracking the production of the incoming rookie class is about the only interesting thing you can do during the NBA's exhibition season. So far, in very limited action, the 2009 rookie class is struggling.
I calculated each rookie's efficient production per 48 minutes using the metric Win Score, and then I adjusted that raw WS48 number according to the positional mix the rookie should play this season. After that, I ranked each rookie according to Position Adjusted Win Score production per 48 minutes. The rankings are below. You will notice only 3 rookies so far are producing numbers above their positional average.
ROOKIE WS48 PAWS
1. DeJuan Blair, PF Spurs (31 mins).....................31.74..........+20.74
2. Ty Lawson, PG Nuggets (32 mins).....................7.50............+0.60
3. Hasheem Thabeet, C Grizzlies (41mins)............12.87..........+0.58
4. Brandon Jennings, PG Bucks (53 mins).............6.40...........-0.50
5. Chase Budinger, SG/SF Rockets (101mins).......6.38...........-0.72
6. Blake Griffin, PF Clippers (21mins)....................9.14...........-1.55
7. DeMar DeRozan, G/F Raptors (74 mins).............5.51...........-1.79
8. Jordan Hill, PF/C Knicks (29 mins).....................8.27...........-2.72
9. Taj Gibson, PF Bulls (62 mins)..........................7.62............-3.08
10. James Harden, G/F Thunder (29 mins).............3.31............-3.19
11. Eric Maynor, PG Jazz (53 mins)......................3.17............-3.73
12. Austin Daye, F Pistons (21mins)......................5.85............-4.14
13. Jrue Holiday, G Sixers (30 mins)......................1.60............-4.80
14. Stephen Curry, G Warriors (89 mins)................0.00............-6.60
15. Tyreke Evans, PG Kings (62 mins)...................0.00............-6.80
16. Earl Clark, F Suns (22 mins)............................2.04............-6.95
17. Jonny Flynn, PG Wolves (50 mins)...................-0.48...........-7.38
18. Jodie Meeks, SG Bucks (35 mins)....................-1.37...........-7.77
19. Gerald Henderson, G/F Hornets (36 mins).........-3.33...........-9.83
20. DaJuan Summers, SF Pistons (24 mins)...........-2.04...........-9.84
21. Wayne Ellington, SG Wolves (36 mins).............-6.66...........-13.06
22. BJ Mullens, F/C Thunder (12 mins)...................-2.80...........-13.18
Notes
...So far, nobody outside DeJuan Blair and Hasheem Thabeet are really playing well, but its very early... Brandon Jennings of the Bucks appears to be outpacing expectations, but he's had one awful game and one excellent game... the Wolves PG Jonny Flynn, the darling of the scouts and GMs prior to the draft, is struggling, as his NCAA numbers suggested he might. He has a big problem with turnovers. The NBA average turnover rate per "at risk" possession (a possession ending with a 2ptFGA, a second FTA, an Assist, or a Turnover) is 12.7%, while so far Flynn's "turnover/at risk" rate has been 20.8%. And in the last Wolves exhibition he played 23 minutes and didn't dish out a single assist... The Wolves SG Wayne Ellington has been awful, but so has his doppelganger, Charlotte's SG Gerald Henderson... A surprise so far, besides Thabeet, has been Houston's Chase Budinger. He's demonstrating a nice shooting touch, and he mixes in secondary stats well also...Golden State G Stephen Curry is really struggling. His NCAA numbers suggested he ought to be a productive pro, but when you adjusted for compe ion, you saw a different vision -- you saw a guy who shot too much and turned the ball over too much. That's what he's been for a lot of this preseason... Tyreke Evans of the Kings is disappointing me. But he's struggling mainly because of his turnovers. I think eventually he will become a shooting guard.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
