The Wages of Wins: The Contending Spurs Fail to Miss Blair

[ChumpDumper]

I don't know. I mean, I hope you are right because I want to believe that Jefferson can be an efficient contributor in the Spurs system. But Berri is (1) a Pistons fan and (2) has written a lot about Allen Iverson as the classic example of a player who is overrated because he scores a lot, but does it inefficiently.

I believe that Jefferson's points per shot stat was slightly higher than Duncan's last year.

[thispego]

I don't know. I mean, I hope you are right because I want to believe that Jefferson can be an efficient contributor in the Spurs system. But Berri is (1) a Pistons fan and (2) has written a lot about Allen Iverson as the classic example of a player who is overrated because he scores a lot, but does it inefficiently. So when the Billups/Iverson trade went down, Berri tracked it fairly closely throughout the year, and the end results in both directions were just what wp48 predicted they would be from the start. I personally think system makes a difference, but there is likely something constant in player's game that wp48 touches on.

One could argue that there's a character issue. Is the player under consideration the type to adjust his game for the good of the team? The more strongly you can believe that he is, the easier it is to think that statistical performance won't transfer. And I certainly think Jefferson is a higher character guy than Iverson.

you a nerd harry potter? why you jockin this stat geeks nuts?

[barbacoataco]

The problem with thuis type of analysis is that it doesn't look at the context that statistics are created in. Last year Jefferson was the #1 scoring option on a bad team for part of the year and he had to take more low percentage shots. This idea that Jefferson is a low percentage score like Iverson is ridiculous. He is a 35-40% 3 pt shooter, and his Points Per Shot is above average because he gets to the free throw line. Jefferson will get a lot more open looks this year than he did last year.

[EJFischer]

I believe that Jefferson's points per shot stat was slightly higher than Duncan's last year.

This idea that Jefferson is a low percentage score like Iverson is ridiculous. He is a 35-40% 3 pt shooter, and his Points Per Shot is above average because he gets to the free throw line. Jefferson will get a lot more open looks this year than he did last year.

I wasn't saying Jefferson's game is like Iverson's, I was addressing ChumpDumper's contention that stats in general don't transfer between teams with the example that, at least in one case (Iverson's) it seems that they did.

His points per shot and TS% were both high last year. Jefferson is good at scoring, no debate there. But last year he was below his position averages in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, though. Poor TS% isn't the only way to be an inefficient scorer. A player can also be inefficient by having his success at scoring counterbalanced by too many weaknesses in other areas.

Hopefully in the new system he can be a spot up shooter and perimeter defender, and not a primary ball handler. I think that is the role that will best accentuate his strengths and hide his weaknesses.

[Tully365]

Almost every sports fan I know uses favorable stats to back up arguments and than talks about how arbitrary and unreliable they are when arguing a point that the stats don't support.

[Blackjack]

^^ I concur.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics..

[Manudona]

god, statisticians must hate their lives

Well it is said that an statistician is a person who, having his head in the oven and his feet in the freezer thinks "on average, I feel very good"

[thispego]

rofl

[peskypesky]

Well it is said that an statistician is a person who, having his head in the oven and his feet in the freezer thinks "on average, I feel very good"

lol. that just may become my new sig.

[Whisky Dog]

Why do geeks feel the need to try to apply their stats and algorithms and such to sports? You get this stupid trash

[greyforest]

ROOKIE WS48 PAWS

1. DeJuan Blair, PF Spurs (31 mins).....................31.74..........+20.74
2. Ty Lawson, PG Nuggets (32 mins).....................7.50............+0.60
3. Hasheem Thabeet, C Grizzlies (41mins)............12.87..........+0.58
4. Brandon Jennings, PG Bucks (53 mins).............6.40...........-0.50
5. Chase Budinger, SG/SF Rockets (101mins).......6.38...........-0.72
6. Blake Griffin, PF Clippers (21mins)....................9.14...........-1.55
7. DeMar DeRozan, G/F Raptors (74 mins).............5.51...........-1.79
8. Jordan Hill, PF/C Knicks (29 mins).....................8.27...........-2.72
9. Taj Gibson, PF Bulls (62 mins)..........................7.62............-3.08
10. James Harden, G/F Thunder (29 mins).............3.31............-3.19
11. Eric Maynor, PG Jazz (53 mins)......................3.17............-3.73
12. Austin Daye, F Pistons (21mins)......................5.85............-4.14
13. Jrue Holiday, G Sixers (30 mins)......................1.60............-4.80
14. Stephen Curry, G Warriors (89 mins)................0.00............-6.60
15. Tyreke Evans, PG Kings (62 mins)...................0.00............-6.80
16. Earl Clark, F Suns (22 mins)............................2.04............-6.95
17. Jonny Flynn, PG Wolves (50 mins)...................-0.48...........-7.38
18. Jodie Meeks, SG Bucks (35 mins)....................-1.37...........-7.77
19. Gerald Henderson, G/F Hornets (36 mins).........-3.33...........-9.83
20. DaJuan Summers, SF Pistons (24 mins)...........-2.04...........-9.84
21. Wayne Ellington, SG Wolves (36 mins).............-6.66...........-13.06
22. BJ Mullens, F/C Thunder (12 mins)...................-2.80...........-13.18

lol