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this is a very good read...
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blog...rter-2009.aspx
10,000...The cat is not dead....
this is a very good read...
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blog...rter-2009.aspx
is it fair to say we are back to where it all started? the market atm is still a fake economy made up of bailout payments and not fixing the financial system.
All the banks and major players who received funds, most of them bailout money is just increasing their balance books, thats about it...whether they are lending it out is another question, same with bank deposits at low rates doing nothing...ppl are just parking it in there cause of the FDIC guaranteed payouts if some goes wrong. Just funds from unsecured ins utions transfered to a secured ins uition.
I dont know if the govt has cramp down on banking operations like loans and , now with the govts new policy tax credits like the first home buyers grant, are the banks and its sales commission team going to restart the lending credit too ppl who dont qualify...cant wait till the s hit the fans again
Trust me, banks are scared less to loan money right now. The bank examiners are making them do triple back flips to do ent every dime they loan and giving all the bankers I know migraines. If you want to borrow money these days you better have triple A credit and not REALLY need to borrow it.
Anyone who can look at a chart can say the stock market has recovered.
But a healthy stock market does not mean a healthy economy.
Basically all that's happened is that a ton of middle-uppermiddle-upper class people throughout the entire world that did good by saving their money jumped at the opportunity and have been sinking money into the markets like madmen. That in turn made the bigmoney sink more money into it, and now it's gone full circle to the typical investor .
I bet if this is not sustainable, and we see a long period of selling-off, you will start to hear talk about a "recovery bubble" in the stock market.
I think it's actually a flight from the dollar. If you put $1000 in a CD last January and got maybe 2% interest at most the $1000 you put in is now worth $900 in January dollars. Our government is intentionally trashing the dollar. I think that the hope is that the stock market "numbers" will go up faster than the dollar drops.
the dollar has not been going straight down in concert with the upswing in the market
it was actually leveling off or going slightly up for part of the stock market recovery
but yeah, now the dollar is sucking taint in the big picture
What did go together with the first jump from march into the first lull around july was the total money supply data from the Fed. There was an obscene amount of money floating around in computers during that first big bump. Once the fed took some of it away (however it is they do that), it started going down to after-march lows
Banks can't lend money right now. FDIC insurance states they must keep something like 10% of all deposits in cash in case everyone starts coming to cash out. Basically if they didn't do that our currency would devalue faster than the Russian Ruble.
It's not like the billions are going just to execs (even though they are getting bonuses). And part of the bonus argument is that these companies are in trouble and in need of some serious management talent. Talent that would not come if the incentive wasn't there.
There will not be another complete selloff. The ins utional investors ("big money") are already re-investing at the moment since almost no one actually bought right at the bottom and held up until today to make their 80%-average gains. Most funds (and their prospective clients) are questioning why they have stayed in cash during this big bull run. They're just now backing up the trucks to get in on the action before their money managers get fired for underperforming the S&P.
By the way if you think ins ution follows retail in investing you need to go back and study economics. The tail does not wag the dog.
Who said anything about a complete selloff? Plus how would you consider the previous selloff complete when there was still value in the market at the low point?
also even guys who wrote the laws on economics never experienced what the market went through over the last 2 years. When weird happens there is no dog no tail or no wagging
Let me break it down. There will not be another selloff to the March lows anytime soon. There are clear cut levels of support that can be seen when the uptrend has been challenged (something like 10-15 times since March) that all have led to mixed volume buying. Buying on dips has made the fund managers money and there's no way they would let the market bottom like that again unless some cataclysm happened like war.
Excellent point. The FED is wagging the markets. Bank stocks were , then the FED stepped in and said "they are too big to fail."
Smart money made 100%-1000%+ buying back in.
The markets are not rational anymore. Insiders are making a killing. Outsiders are pot builders.
Wait. Aren't we still at war?
War is profitable for a lot of business, brutal on the tax payer and their families, but now we finally meet our enlistment goals.
And we're flooding the market with money we don't have while changing little in our daily business of float the note.
Seems precarious anyway.
Down 1000 today
orange with hair thinking his ty tariffs will do anything
China said fu k you and notched up the trade war to an 11. They are basically ready for war now.
Trump re ed asz will be too stubborn to back out so it's recession for us and the Maga re s
Maybe China will give him a chance to back out without an embarrasme t and he should take it
Called det .
Stock market goes up:
Obama's economy
Stock market goes down:
Trump's recession
This must be the start of World Word 50 by Hater's count...
I'm hoping for Recession so I can finally start investing my piles of money that's sitting in the bank right now... Fix and flip real estate and eventually hope to buy a big student apartment complex while it's cheap... my APY% on my CD has fallen from 2.37% in April to a coupon rate of 2.00% now and I was lucky to get that one before it went down even further the next day.
Plus get to look forward to $5 Footlongs again and 55 cent junior hamburger sales. 2009 was a good time to be a consumer.
I do think it remains ugly and choppy for months. Not a time to panic or get aggressive. Trade war will be with us for years. No resolution in sight. So market will get use to trade war and re-calibrate. My thoughts.
My realtor predicted Recession and a falling in real estate prices beginning around Fall 2020. That would be very good news because it's just been a steady and sharp incline since 2011 which has been a huge hardship for both homebuyers and owners (Texas property taxes have more than doubled in the past 8 years).
Stock market goes up:
Trump is doing awesome
Stock market does down:
hur dur
Real estate will be fine so long as interest rates remain low.
I got tired of waiting and bought with my pile of money already. Hoping it doesn't hit as hard as 08.
Do you want us to call this Obama's recession?
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