the game is played in rotations, the topic is about rotations, so why not talk about rotations instead of always talk about positions and starters and bench players??
we will see a frontcourt, a wing and a PG rotation (we could even see the wing and PG rotation just as the backcourt rotation)
front court will be: #1 Tim - #2 Dice - #3 ? - #4 ? (#5 isn't part of the regular rotation)
wing will be: #1 RJ - #2 Manu - #3 Mason - #4 ? (#5 isn't part of the regular rotation)
PG will be: #1Tony - #2 Hill (#3 isn't part of the regular rotation)
the big question will be, who makes as #3 and #4 the front court rotation?
Blair has a good chance and I would guess at least in the first 2 months Bonner has the edge over Ratliff, Haislip and Ian. so I would think the season starts with #3 Bonner and #4 Blair and Ratliff at #5. depending on match ups Ratliff will see rotations minutes in some games, likely at the expense of Blair. (Haislip and Ian will be on the inactive list)
in the wing rotation the #4 spot will very likely be Finley. if Hairston makes the team, the #5 will be between Bogans and him. the fact that Hairston could play in Austin when he is on the inactive list, will likely make Bogans the #5.
at PG there isn't much left to discuss, now that it is a lock that Pop sees Hill as the back up PG. here the major question will be, how many minutes Pop decides to play Hill at SG, sometimes alongside Tony. (I guess this minutes will come from Masons account)
Starters
PG-Tony Parker - 32-34 mpg
SG-Roger Mason - 20-22 mpg
SF-Richard Jefferson-31-33 mpg
PF-Tim Duncan - 30-32 mpg
C-Antonio McDyess- 24-26 mpg
Bench
SG/SF-Manu Ginobili - 27-29 mpg
PG-George Hill - 15-17 mpg
PF-Matt Bonner - 15-17 mpg
PF-DeJuan Blair - 15-17 mpg
SG/SF-Michael Finley - 10-12 mpg
C-Theo Ratliff - 8-10 mpg
Then we have one of Hairston/ Bogans/ Mahimni/ Haislip on the active roster and the other 3 on the injured reserved.
Last edited by MaNu4Tres; 10-19-2009 at 06:08 AM.
This is my dream rotation come late February and on forward til mid-late June:
Starters
PG- Tony Parker 34 MPG
SG- Manu Ginobili 28 MPG
SF- Richard Jefferson 33 MPG
PF- Tim Duncan 32 MPG
C- Antonio McDyess 26mpg
Bench
SF/PF- Andres Nocioni 25 MPG
PF- DeJuan Blair 18 MPG
PG- George Hill 16 MPG
C- Theo Ratliff 12 mpg
SG/SF- Michael Finley or Malik Hairston 10-12 mpg
C/PF- Ian Mahimni 8 mpg
Then Bogans and Haislip would be insurance players on the inactive list.
Of course this happens if Mason/ Bonner get traded for Nocioni. One can dream.
Richard Jefferson would see an immense reduction in production if he only gets 33 minutes per game. He used to play at the mid to high 30s for minutes. I wonder if he will be blasted if he only scores 14 a game.
As long as he shoots an efficient 14 points a game that would be great. This team is talented 1-12 everyone's averages will drop to some extent because of the decline in number of touches everyone will see.
Mason's touches will decrease significantly as will his minutes from 30 to the low 20's.
Jefferson was the best offensive player last year for a horrible Bucks team, which was a reason for his 19 ppg. He saw the most touches last year on his team and that will change with him playing with Tim, Tony, and Manu. His points per game will go down.
Finley won't see 28 minutes a game like he did last year, so his touches will decrease obviously as will his points per game.
Matt Bonner will share minutes now with Dice and Blair so his points per game and rebounding will decline.
Duncan/ Parker/ Manu all have Jefferson now to share the load, so their touches will decline slightly as well.
Don't expect any Spurs to set any career highs in PPG this year. That will be fine.
I'd pay more attention to field goal percentage than anything else.
Not really. I would look at their TS% and eFG%. Those are more accurate than raw FG%. If we looked at FG%, all of us would jump to the conclusion that Hill cannot score efficiently. He is still below average at those departments though.
Same thing it's relative.
You get my point.
If its a decently efficient 14 pts, to go along with something else(good rebounding numbers, and/or defense worthy of being called "best wing defender"), then no.
If he isn't doing 2/3 of that then he is Jason Richardson.
There is a part of me that wants to see Pop start the season with Finley and Bonner starting and playing 30 mpg. Like a good emetic, it would result in the projectile expulsion of some of the more emo posters here.
Solid list IMO. I wouldn't be surprised to see Manu and Hill getting slightly fewer minutes, and those going to Finley, and at least early in the season, Bonner would take a few from Blair. I'm not saying this is a good thing, just what I think will happen.
Also, you don't have to call it "injured reserve" anymore; it's now the "inactive list." The team just designates the 12 active players before each game, and the rest of the roster is inactive. Teams no longer have to make up fake injuries for players they just don't want to play.
Pop plans on sitting Manu and Tim on the first or second game of back to backs. Probably the one against the lesser opponent. Therefore having depth even going to the inactive list will be more important than in previous years.
And yeah I know it's called inactive list, I wasn't paying attention. Hence the way I correctly named it the inactive list on my " dream rotation" above. My bad.
Nice read but it 's going to be shaky at times, there will be losing streaks (hopefully not long ones) as the team builds chemistry. It will be fun to see all the people on here implode after a couple of losses.
this year Popovich need to make duncan average 28 mpg in the regular season.
A couple of things for me in regards to the rotation:
I have no problem starting the season with Matt Bonner starting at C. He will not play near the minutes he played last year and after McDyess gets acclimated to the system and finds himself some rhythm he will supplant him. By the ASB Bonner will likely be relegated to the role he was always meant to play...a shooting big that can come in and knock down a few threes while stretching the defense by drawing the opposing team's bigs out of paint.
I like the idea of Blair as a front line version of Manu. As we have already seen, his knack for knowing where the ball is should give him many easy offensive opportunities around the rim. Those easy buckets could be very valuable when dealing with some of our offensive slumps. Depending on how committed Pop is to getting McDyess and Ratliff comfortable with the system he may or may not see a whole lot of minutes right off the bat, but I am confident he will work is way into the rotation. His ability to play defense will probably dictate a lot of this...but I think that his rebounding may cancel out some of his limitations defensively. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble and at least be serviceable in that area he should get minutes.
Speaking of Manu, anyone who thinks Manu should be playing more than 25 minutes per game during the regular season is willing to go ahead and concede the season right now. I can almost guarantee that he will not make it through the regular season if he is asked to play anywhere close to 30 MPG. I love Manu as much as the next man, but he is still Manu and no one is going to change that. He is still going to play balls out every single time he takes the floor...and El Contusion is no longer able to absorb the type of punishment that 25yr old Manu could. TBQH though, I am not really worried about this. None of this is foreign to Pop and he will as careful as ever with Manu this year. Thank God for RJ, as he is going to be crucial in this process.
As for the rest of the players....Mahinmi, Hairston, Bogans, etc...those guys destinies are in their own hands. I am really pulling hard for Hairston and Mahinmi. Both of these guys have tools that could be very valuable to this team from a depth perspective. The challenge for them will be to learn to stay within themselves. They don't have to do too much...they just need to do what they know how to do.
I foresee much wailing, gnashing of teeth, sackcloth and ashes if Bonner and Finley start on opening day.
My guess:
Starters
PG-Tony Parker
SG-Michael Finley
SF-Richard Jefferson
PF-Tim Duncan
C-Matt Bonner
Bench
SG/SF-Manu Ginobili
PG-George Hill
PF/C-Antonio McDyess
SG-Roger Mason
C-Theo Ratliff
and sporadic minutes for Blair and Mahinmi here and there at season's start...
What fool would play Bonner before McDyess, Blair and Ratliff?
I think once Blair continues to dominate, it will be obvious that he deserves more minutes than Bonner. However, Dice's physical play will make up for Bonner's lack of ability to be an "ass kicking 4" (to quote RC Buford), which will make Bonner more effective than before. But within 10 games, unless Blair disappoints, I think Bonner's minutes will decline. But who knows - maybe Blair and Bonner can coexist on the court together? A lot of our either/or compe ions and scenarios are theoretical and don't always reproduce themselves on the court.
Pop might play Theo and Finley every other game, as well as the same for Ian and Hairston. Pop loves to experiment with lineups, and so this could be a fun rollercoaster up until January.
BTW - re: COH, I always assumed Mountain Baller was the original poster to stick up for Malik in the original Summer League, even when Malik appeared to be 100% god awful, at least to the untrained eye.
Last edited by The Truth #6; 10-19-2009 at 05:39 PM.
If Bonner knows the defense better, what fool wouldn't play him before those guys, at least at first? I'm all for throwing the young guys in and seeing if tehy can swim, but Dice and Latif aren't young guys, and at this point Blair is less of an NBA center than Bonner is, for better or worse.
The rotation is a mystery right now. A lot of different scenarios are going to play out over the course of this season. There's a lot of talent but we need to be a truly cohesive unit if we want another le. That bonding time needs to start now because there's other teams out there ahem Lakers Celtics that will not be having this problem and will be off to the races early and throughout the season. Before someone says we shouldn't be setting our goal that high right now, no I don't think we will try and race them for the #1 overall seed (though that would kick ass if we got out to that kind of start while still keeping everyone's minutes down). We need to develop a cohesion like theirs if we are to beat them and there's a lot of new faces to incorporate.
So it goes like this: Tim can't do it all anymore, and he'll play the lowest minutes of his career. Tony will be Tony but he needs some help. Our additions, including a healthy Manu, need to really make a splash, a big one too. I can only hope this will be the rotation (minute wise, who ing knows) initially:
G Parker
G Mason
F Jefferson
F Tim
C Bonner
Manu, then McDyess and Finley are the first guys off the bench. Dejuan will get his chances. For how long, who knows. Pop proved to me last season that attempting to predict the motives behind his moves in a sane manner is futile. You can only hope he knows what he's doing. You must completely trust in Pop and therefore, its only best to simply consider what you know about his tendencies rather than what you know about basketball.
There's a lot of pressure on RJ specifically. He needs to seamlessly transition into the offense and pack a real punch while he's doing it. He also must be playing above average D night in and night out with Bowen gone and a lot of big time perimeter players ready to finally make the Spurs their . Manu is 100% but he's still got a ways to go before he can truly become that Manu again, including on the defensive end, and even then, you know Pop is going to micromanage the out of his minutes. A lot of pressure on RJ and he's going to play the most minutes. Manu will get around 25MPG but he's going to get rest anytime Pop feels insecure (cue Finley haters)
The next issue concerns our big men. McDyess really excites me - if he can sort of be that big guy that brings another presence, defensively, in the paint when we really need it, that'd be great. I know he can do it. I really dig his outside touch on the offensive end, as well as (what's left of) his abilities and size inside. We desperately need another physical presence in there.
I'm confident in Bonner. He's coming off a good season and he's going to be more open than ever. If he improves in a couple areas, I think he might be more valuable than most here believe. If Bonner and the others rebound up to their ability .. damn.
Speaking of which - DeJuan, now this is a complete wildcard. Who knows what he might bring to the table. He's going to have to play pretty in good to secure a place in the rotation night in, and night out. Knowing Pop, he's really gonna have to tear some arms off. So does he have a lot of heart? yeah. He could definitely do it. He has the physical attributes and that nose for the ball. I've got my fingers crossed. If he can rebound and play passibly on D without fouling, he just might be good enough to really bring a completely new skillset to the table. Blair rebounding would really take some weight off Timmy and McDyess's knees.
That leaves Ian and Theo. I've got high hopes for Ian Mahinmi. I was hoping this season would be the one, so to speak. I still think he could play a role, but to what extent, you just can't be sure. Theo needs to stay healthy and stay on the bench except when we need him. He's got the ability to play some D but who knows how long he's got. The rest of the guys will shuffle in and out, but who knows about their roles.
No Bonner, Finley or Mason on the starting lineup please
Mason is the best guy to start at the 2 because of his ability to share the ball handling load and shooting ability. No way he does not start. The wuestion would be how many minutes he plays as he is undersized at the 3 and not good enough as a decision maker and ball handler to pass off as a 1 effectively for long stretches.No Bonner, Finley or Mason on the starting lineup please
Bonner and McDyess will switch spots fairly early in the season unless it works out just perfectly (and Pop will still experiment with it and many weird lineups throughout the season), which won't happen. Dyess needs to start and he will prove himself that player quickly. He's already penciled in for the job at some point.No Bonner, Finley or Mason on the starting lineup please
Mason, he's one of those guys that could be something special again, or just a spot player. He needs to improve defensively but I'm sure he can do it. I thought he had pretty good defensive stretches last season for being an essentially unknown guy, who was supposed to make a difference (whether or not Pop ed his psyche up last season, we'll never know - but this season will be indicative of just how skilled he is).
Finley the same, Hairston the same - these are guys, especially Finley, that could see big swathes of playing time or DNPs, depending on how bad we need them to step up. One of them, hopefully Hairston, carves out a niche for himself. We need another wing defender that isn't a liability on the other end.
Last edited by z0sa; 10-19-2009 at 06:51 PM.
There is a definite ceiling to Bonner's game and right now his head is poking through it. Let's put it this way: if Bonner plays more minutes then Dice or Blair by the end of the season, then this isn't a good sign, indicating Blair and Dice got lost in the system, injured, or somehow just didn't deliver.
Bonner lighting it up in preseason (preseason!) is fools gold in my opinion. Not to be harsh - but that's classic. He rips it up in meaningless games and fades when it counts. That's the fact until we are proven otherwise. Hopefully he's improved and reinvented himself but I wouldn't want to lean on him past the ASB. If this is an elaborate ploy to improve his trade value then YES YES play him, but with his expiring contract and desire to win a new one, he could make an excellent trade candidate at the trading deadline, especially since we'll need an opening in the frontcourt if Splitter is indeed coming next year now that no one wants to buy Spanish tile. (But who knows - Theo or Ian could be the opening for Splitter, and not Bonner, assuming Bonner takes a pay cut.)
Pop is going to make Blair move mountains to get established minutes, and this might be a good motivating factor, though to be honest it seems laughable that he's going to have to prove himself to be better than Bonner for more than a month.
I agree Bonner cannot be our 2nd best big if we want another le this year. However, I doubt McDyess isn't up for the challenge. He absolutely wants to fulfill a big role on a le team. That leaves Bonner and Blair to clean up the rest of the minutes.
We're going to need offense from him throughout the season because he's gonna be the only guy they can sag off of sometimes. Eventually he should come off the bench but still filling his time with good things.
Bonner had a pretty good regular season last year. I guess you could call it fool's gold, but I'd rather not bring up last playoffs because its pointless. You don't need Bonner scoring points for you except off wide open shots come playoff time or you aren't doing anyway.Bonner lighting it up in preseason (preseason!) is fools gold in my opinion.
The big man situation is not exactly stacked. We could get some really fine production some nights, while others we're going to be relying on Bonner to nail shots and play D (which is the most underrated aspect of his game).Not to be harsh - but that's classic. He rips it up in meaningless games and fades when it counts. That's the fact until we are proven otherwise. Hopefully he's improved and reinvented himself but I wouldn't want to lean on him past the ASB.
And Bonner starting if logical because he knows the sets and he knows the system. He's actually one of the returners and he's got some experience. Even if he isn't a huge contributor on the floor, he's definitely doing good things in practice for all these new faces.
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