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then, what happened?
Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group
Compared with 2008, more Americans “conservative” in general, and on issues
by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ -- Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.
"Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008."The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter. Conservatives have been the dominant ideological group each quarter, with between 39% and 41% of Americans identifying themselves as either "very conservative" or "conservative." Between 35% and 37% of Americans call themselves "moderate," while the percentage calling themselves "very liberal" or "liberal" has consistently registered between 20% and 21% -- making liberals the smallest of the three groups.
Independents Inch to the Right
Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are "conservative" has increased by one point each.
As is typical in recent years, Republicans are far more unified in their political outlook than are either independents or Democrats. While 72% of Republicans in 2009 call their views conservative, independents are closely split between the moderate and conservative labels (43% and 35%, respectively). Democrats are about evenly divided between moderates (39%) and liberals (37%).
Americans Also Moving Right on Some Issues
In addition to the increase in conservatism on this general ideology measure, Gallup finds higher percentages of Americans expressing conservative views on several specific issues in 2009 than in 2008.
- Perceptions that there is too much government regulation of business and industry jumped from 38% in September 2008 to 45% in September 2009.
- The percentage of Americans saying they would like to see labor unions have less influence in the country rose from 32% in August 2008 to a record-high 42% in August 2009.
- Public support for keeping the laws governing the sale of firearms the same or making them less strict rose from 49% in October 2008 to 55% in October 2009, also a record high. (The percentage saying the laws should become more strict -- the traditionally liberal position -- fell from 49% to 44%.)
- The percentage of Americans favoring a decrease in immigration rose from 39% in June/July 2008 to 50% in July 2009.
- The propensity to want the government to "promote traditional values" -- as opposed to "not favor any particular set of values" -- rose from 48% in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Current support for promoting traditional values is the highest seen in five years.
- The percentage of Americans who consider themselves "pro-life" on abortion rose from 44% in May 2008 to 51% in May 2009, and remained at a slightly elevated 47% in July 2009.
- Americans' belief that the global warming problem is "exaggerated" in the news rose from 35% in March 2008 to 41% in March 2009.
Gallup has not recorded heightened conservatism on all major social and political views held by Americans. For instance, at udes on the death penalty, gay marriage, the Iraq war, and Afghanistan have stayed about the same since 2008. However, there are no major examples of U.S. public opinion becoming more liberal in the past year. (Gallup's annual trends on healthcare will be updated in November, so those at udes are not included in this review.)
The conservative shifts discussed here result as much from changes in political independents' views as from changes in Republicans' views. Democrats' views, by contrast, have generally changed only slightly -- either to the conservative or liberal side -- with two exceptions: Gallup finds greater movement in Democrats' views of abortion, which have become more liberal, and their views of labor unions, which have become more conservative.
Bottom Line
Americans are more likely to consider themselves conservative this year than they were in 2008, resulting in conservatives -- now 40% of the American public -- outnumbering moderates for the first time since 2004. While Gallup first do ented this trend in June, the finding has been sustained through the third quarter.
Conservatism is most prevalent among Republicans. However, the overall increase in this ideological stance since 2008 comes largely from political independents, among whom 35% say they are conservatives thus far in 2009 -- compared with 29% last year. Independents have also become more conservative on a number of specific policy issues, including government and union power, the role of government relative to promoting values, gun laws, immigration, global warming, and abortion. Republicans, most of whom considered themselves ideologically conservative in 2008, have also grown more conservative on several of these issues this year, while less change is seen among Democrats.
All of this has potentially important implications at the ballot box, particularly for the 2010 midterm elections. The question is whether increased conservatism, particularly among independents, will translate into heightened support for Republican candidates. Right now, it appears it may. Although Gallup polling continues to show the Democratic Party leading the Republican Party in Americans' party identification, that lead has been narrowing since the beginning of the year and now stands at six points, the smallest since 2005. According to Gallup Managing Editor Jeff Jones, "the Democratic-Republican gap is narrowing because more independents now say they lean to the Republican Party." That trend aligns with the recent changes in how independents perceive their own ideology and where they stand on some key issues.
Sign up for Gallup e-mail alerts or RSS feedsSurvey Methods
The 2009 political ideology results reported here are based on 16 aggregated Gallup surveys conducted from January to September 2009. For results based on the total sample of 16,321 national adults, aged 18 and older, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
then, what happened?
1.John McCain
2. Iowa and New Hampshire
thats not it.
enlighten us.
why?
Exactly, i wasn't serious.
That's asking too much from you.
conservative is not the same as conservative "nut" (e.g. glenn beck)
The libs on this board refuse to believe this country is center-right. They are convinced that conservatism is becoming extinct and everyone is moving to the left. Problem is - the facts don't back up their views; but they still cling to their false view of America.
And yes, Clam - what happened in 2008 was that John McCain is not a conservative and the Republicans allowed open primaries in several states early in the year, and, in essence, democrats and independents chose our candidate. But even though McCain is not a true conservative, we knew he'd still be better than the buffoon in the Oval Office right now.
you agree with the OP, huh?Exactly, i wasn't serious.
That's asking too much from you.
mccain,iowa,new hampshire?
Repugs and conservatives and teabaggers and birthers make a lot of lying noise, as befits their greatly diminished, and diminishing, role in America.
They have to yell louder, there's so few of them.
you had other choices.
help iggy with some answers.
What other VIABLE choices did we have? By the time of the Texas Primary, McCain was already the candidate. As far as the general election, who were we going to vote for - Ron Paul? Yeah right - that was throwing away our vote. So we had to choose between the lesser of two evils.
And as I said before, McCain wasn't the greatest choice, but he still would've done a much better job than Obama. The only good thing to come from Obama's election is that conservatives are re-energized and moderates and independents are peeling away from Obama and the democrats - so there's hope for 2010 and 2012.
Beck is not a conservative. He's a self-proclaimed libertarian.
mccain said he had a secret plan to catch bin ladin. why does he hate america so much that he kept the secret?
it will be a long time before america forgets what you assholes have done.The only good thing to come from Obama's election is that conservatives are re-energized and moderates and independents are peeling away from Obama and the democrats - so there's hope for 2010 and 2012.
Doesn't anybody read boutons_deux's posts?
Look at the OP again - people are already forgetting. This is Obama's mess now and they want HIM to fix it. No more blaming Bush - all the whining of the Obama administration is starting to wear thin and just makes him look childish, immature, and incompetent.
yah? who are they going to run to?
They're kinda like car accidents. You know you probably shouldn't look, but you end up giving in to morbid curiosity.
Nah - he's been on ignore for quite some time now. The only time I can see his posts is if someone else quotes him. And even in those few times - it always reminds me why I put him on ignore.
you people should look a little closer.
I don't know guys how do you explain congress being so blue.Unless conservatives have witheld going to the polls to support rhinos.
Either that or people aren't as conservative as they say they are.
Alot of blacks consider themselves social conservatives, but when it comes election time they make an unholy with the DNC.
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