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Updated: November 11, 2009, 3:21 PM ET
Surprises of the early season
PER Diem: Nov. 11, 2009
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Joe Murphy/NBAE/Getty ImagesJosh Smith's refined shot selection is one of the many surprises already emerging in the NBA.
Surprise, surprise.
Two weeks into the new season and the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers are two of the four NBA teams with just one loss. No surprise there. But the Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat joining them in the one-loss fraternity?
Yes, that's a bit of a shocker.
I've already written a bit about Phoenix, and I will tackle Miami later this week when I'm in town there. Suffice it to say that I think the Suns' early success might be more sustainable than the Heat's. But those are two of the biggest surprises in the early part of the season.
But they're not the only ones. Moving from teams to individuals and other storylines, here are some of the other developments that raised eyebrows thus far:
Smith
Josh Smith's shot selection
After five seasons of lamenting, "When will Josh Smith ever get it?" I'm pleased to announce that it appears he might be getting it. Through seven games, Smith has attempted nary a 3-pointer. In a related story, he's crushing his previous career high by shooting 57.3 percent from the floor, and the result has been an All-Star caliber start to his season.
I'd like to give Atlanta's much-maligned fans a little credit here as well. Ever since the middle of last season, when they began booing and heckling Smith any time he missed an ill-chosen jumper, he's seemed much more hesitant to fire away. Whatever the cause, the results have been spectacular. Already this season, he's had games of 18 points on 10 shots, 20 points on 11 shots, and 22 points on 10 shots. Throw in his usual passing and shot-blocking, and he's been a breakout performer.
Frye
Channing Frye's 3-point shooting
As I noted two days ago, Frye has already topped his career high in 3-pointers. He had made 20 his entire career entering this season. Through the Suns' first eight games, he's made 22 while drilling 44.0 percent from downtown. Frye has always been a reliable threat from 20 feet, normally shooting better than the league average on mid-range jumpers while taking the bulk of his shots from that distance.
I can't overemphasize what a huge difference the extra point on those shots has made to his game -- the mid-range J is the lowest percentage shot in the game, with even the best mid-range shooters basically breaking even versus other options. But with Frye taking more than half his shots from beyond the arc, he's become a more efficient offensive player. He would have to hit 66 percent of his long 2-pointers to match his 3-point output, and nobody shoots it at anything close to that clip.
Milwaukee's defense
We expected Boston to be able to play some defense -- the Celtics were one of the all-time great defensive squads two seasons ago and not too far off the pace in 2008-09. But the Milwaukee Bucks? The same Bucks who were 30th in defensive efficiency two season ago and a mere 15th last season? That's a bit of a shocker.
Through two weeks it is not the much-lauded Celtics but the long-forgotten Bucks who lead the NBA in defensive efficiency. Scott Skiles once again has managed to squeeze blood from a rock in leading the Bucks to a surprising 3-2 start, with the help of the league's most underrated defender and the additions of quick-handed point guard Brandon Jennings and defensive-minded wing Carlos Delfino.
One good example of Skiles' impact is how he handled Hakim Warrick against New York on Saturday. Unlike the others, Warrick isn't exactly renowned for his D. After a couple of soft challenges on Danilo Gallinari jumpers, Skiles yanked him just two minutes into the game. Warrick came back in the second half and defended the way that Skiles demands, and Milwaukee went on to win in a rout.
Wallace
Gerald Wallace's rebounding
It's one thing for a 6-foot-7 player to lead the league in rebounding. It's quite another when that player doesn't even play in the frontcourt. Wallace, the Charlotte Bobcats' small forward, leads the league with 13.1 boards per game.
He's benefited a bit from the fact that Charlotte games have a LOT of missed shots -- the clawless 'Cats are dead last in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency -- but by any standard this is pretty amazing. Here's the twist -- he's having a really poor year otherwise, shooting just 32.1 percent from the floor with four assists the entire season. Yes, four. The scoring-starved Bobcats continue to post him up out of desperation, with little results.
Kaman
Chris Kaman's All-Star emergence
Nobody saw this one coming. Kaman won Western Conference Player of the Week honors while confidently stroking in mid-range jumpers to complement his already solid post presence. Healthy for the first time in eons and showcased in a Los Angeles Clipper offense that's unexpectedly without Blake Griffin, Kaman is shooting 57.3 percent from the floor and averaging 22.3 points per 40 minutes.
His emergence caught All-Star ballot creators off balance too, as he was left off the league's list of 12 Western Conference centers. Alas, he still has a good chance of making a trip to Dallas in February if he keeps playing like this. One thing that may help him quite a bit is that, as part of the league's ongoing effort to avoid hurting Tim Duncan's feelings, Duncan continues to be listed as a power forward on the All-star ballot. Apparently I don't have the same pull, as my request to be listed as "Stat Sumarai" on my media credential was denied once again.
But getting back to Kaman, the ballot structure means Andrew Bynum will likely be voted in as the starting center. So if the fans name Duncan a starting forward -- as they've done five straight years -- it opens the door for Kaman to be the backup center.
Bryant
Kobe's post game
As ESPN.com's J.A. Adande so expertly noted, Kobe's still doing work -- but he relocated his office. Bryant has only taken 15 3-pointers and made only three, but is leading the league in scoring by relying almost exclusively on a post-up game -- even against bigger defenders such as Houston's Shane Battier. In fact, the one notable change about Bryant's 41-point effort in Houston as compared to other efforts against Battier was how deep Bryant was catching the ball.
You have to admire a guy who comes back from a championship season -- the icing on his career cake, basically -- with a new facet to his game rather than resting on his laurels. But here's the question that remains unanswered: How much room will be left for him on the block once Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol come back? It will be interesting to see how Bryant's new-found post skills coexist with two players who already were fairly potent on the block.
Houston's up-tempo offense
For a team full of role players, they sure do seem to have an easy time scoring. The Rockets are ninth in offensive efficiency thus far despite a fairly difficult early schedule, an impressive accomplishment for a team with almost $40 million in salary wearing suits behind the bench. Houston hung 61 in the fist half on a top-notch defensive team in Dallas on Tuesday before cooling off, and one wonders if they'll hang around at this level all season thanks to several second-tier weapons -- Luis Scola, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, and rookie Chase Budinger -- that combine to make a pretty effective offensive whole despite the lack of a go-to scorer.
Jennings
Rookie point guards
I wrote about this on Tuesday so I won't repeat myself here except to note again, for posterity's sake, that rookie point guards almost always struggle before gathering their footing in Season 2, and that this season's crew has been a glaring exception to that rule. Jennings, Ty Lawson, Tyreke Evans, Jonny Flynn and the gang are breaking all the rules about rookie point guards, and if they keep it up and follow any kind of normal development curve, they're going to go down as the best point guard crop in history.
Gallinari
Danilo Gallinari's stroke
Look, we knew he was a pretty good shooter, but this? Gallinari is taking nearly eight 3-pointers a game and shooting a blistering 45.9 percent from downtown. We have supplemental evidence of his shooting prowess in the form of his free-throw percentages; he's 17-of-19 from the stripe and is now shooting 93.5 percent for his career, in an admittedly small sample of 46 shots.
Nonetheless, the 21-year-old Italian sniper has been one of the few bright spots in an ugly start to the New York Knicks' season. If he keeps shooting like this it won't matter how awful he is at defense and rebounding (and right now he's pretty awful), because he can take over games with his quick trigger from outside.
Bagnani
Andrea Bagnani's breakout
Bryan Colangelo took a lot of heat from some quarters (ahem) for his $50 million extension for Bargnani, and certainly the Toronto Raptors' alleged center still has much to prove at the defensive end. But offensively, he's been lights out through the first eight games, helping Toronto to the league lead in offensive efficiency.
The 7-footer is 17-of-35 on 3-pointers, but what's really made a difference is the new-found diversity in his offensive game. Bargnani has shown more willingness to put it on the floor and even (gasp) post up on occasion, resulting in 20.1 points per game and a steady diet of closer shots to supplement the long-distance game.
Noah
Joakim Noah's emergence
Second behind Wallace in the rebounding charts is none other than the Chicago Bulls' Noah, who has used a similar formula -- wiry, athletic guy benefiting from games with lots of missed shots to clean up around the rim. The difference in Noah's case is that he's also shooting 58.6 percent from the floor and ranks third among centers in PER in the early going.
It's enough to make him the biggest snub from the Eastern Conference All-Star ballot, an omission magnified by the presence of Philadelphia's desperately shopped Samuel Dalembert on the ballot at the same position.
Thanks.
