1. West Playoff Forecast: Thunder In, Spurs Out
By Tim Legler
ESPN.com
Four weeks of action in the 2009-10 NBA season have given us a good outline of how this season might play out. In fact, I've changed my projection of how I initially saw the field of playoff teams in the West.
The Dallas Mavericks in particular have moved up. This is a team playing with a lot of energy, getting guys to buy into roles. Notably, Jason Kidd has transformed himself into a consistent 3-point shooter, something you couldn't say about him in his last year in New Jersey. That shooting has helped open up the offense and spread the floor.
On the downside, the San Antonio Spurs have looked so disinterested, they actually moved out of the playoffs. I thought the additions of Richard Jefferson and DeJuan Blair would give them some energy, along with Manu Ginobili being healthy (he's not). But the Spurs, who moved back to .500 with a win Monday over Milwaukee, have not played with a whole lot of passion. Still, we've learned not to write the final book on them until spring.
Come April, here's how I see the Western Conference playoff seeds playing out 1 to 8:
1. Los Angeles Lakers -- When Andrew Bynum is playing this well, this Lakers team is scary. Complacency is the only thing that keeps them from challenging 65-70 wins. Clearly the best in the West.
2. Dallas Mavericks -- They've been a nice surprise when this could have been a team headed in the opposite direction. They've played good defense. Dirk Nowitzki has been one of the 2 or 3 best fourth-quarter players this year. The Mavs have done a good job spreading around the job of helping him carry the scoring load, sometimes Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, J.J. Barea, Kidd and others. This team is playing with a lot more energy than it did a year ago.
3. Phoenix Suns -- Good to see the Suns back to being themselves. I understand that you need to be able to compete when the game slows down in playoff basketball -- but that doesn't matter if you don't make the playoffs in the first place.
So the Suns are back to letting Steve Nash make great decisions and pick an opponent apart better than anybody. The team has had some unexpected contributions from Channing Frye, solid play from Grant Hill while Jason Richardson has just been great.
They finally got back to who they were: Nash and Amare Stoudemire in the middle of the floor, running the pick-and-roll, surrounded by 3-point shooters outside.
4. Denver Nuggets -- Carmelo Anthony is in the best shape of his life, and looks to be more committed to winning than at any point in his career. He's taken on a leadership role. It's much easier to to get role players to follow when the best player sets the tone.
5. Portland Trail Blazers -- An improving team whose key will be continuing to get consistent play from Greg Oden, who had a big night Monday in the win over Chicago. He needs to be a guy who finishes around the rim (he's shooting an NBA-best 64 percent from the field) and is a deterrent at the other end. He's off to a good start.
6. Houston Rockets -- If you looked up the word "team" in the dictionary, you would find the Rockets. They take off fewer plays than anybody else in the league. They have very few blown assignments. On offense, it's going to be a struggle to score. Coach Rick Adelman keeps his fingers crossed that somebody will get hot.
Trevor Ariza has more than lived up to what was expected (18.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists) to earn his money. With Tracy McGrady's injury history, if I'm Adelman I coach the team like T-Mac's is not going to be there.
7. Utah Jazz -- The Jazz are playing their best ball of the season now. However, until they learn to win on the road in a good team's arena, we can't take them seriously as a contending team, even with the talent they have. You must win on the road.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder -- Their day is coming. Russell Westbrook was my preseason pick to be a breakout player. Kevin Durant will be a scoring champ one day. James Harden has come in and done a good job as a rookie in the sixth-man role.
This team looks like they're having lots of fun playing together. They have the parts to become the next formidable team to rise in the West, whether it's this season or next.
I knew when Legler was giving us praise that one of these stories would happen. The duche bag jumps ship the very second he's able. Spurs won't be in the playoffs? There is no way that could happen. Even if the Spurs played the same way they played last week, they would still make playoffs. The west isn't that deep.
Yes after 11 games the Spurs are out...it would matter if this was the NFL not the NBA...nothing to read here.
Wow
+1
That's surpising coming from Legler, he loves the spurs.
Trying to stir the pot. No big deal.
It comes down to the big 3 being healthy together long enough to get back in sync and establish a playoff berth. The few games I've watched, they struggle against inferior teams (unless bonner has a career night) due to their core players being hurt. It comes down to health.
Legs, you could see the steam rising outta that man when Kobe rang/sans Daddy. Yikes!
Now this spiteful cast down of his second fav team (Suns are first).
Stings, don't it?
i see a first round matchup between the Spurs and LA!
I'm tired of the Lakers beating up on the Spurs. Let's beat up on another team for a change.
[3. Phoenix Suns -- Good to see the Suns back to being themselves. I understand that you need to be able to compete when the game slows down in playoff basketball -- but that doesn't matter if you don't make the playoffs in the first place.
So the Suns are back to letting Steve Nash make great decisions and pick an opponent apart better than anybody.]
Just ignore the black dude hangin' from the majestic cactus over ta the side there (Nashy strung him that way). But, don't ignore sendin' the checks for the next two years. tee, hee.
This moron picked up to win the le in the offseason and now we're not going to even make the playoffs? Seriously, how ing braindead do you have to be to work on ESPN?
You either need to be braindead and/or have huge s.
lol!!!!!!! First Bowen gives the Spurs Fandom a red ass, now Legs doin' likewise.
Hey, yer .500 again though. Glory B!
I'd hope for the Thunder as a first round opponent since, well, we're 2-0 against them already.
I don't think the Spurs are going to miss the playoffs--they're too experienced to let that happen (barring any major injury to Duncan...), but I have a hard time fathoming the Suns/Mavs grabbing a higher seed than Denver...
I would too. Also the Mavs. They've been ducking the Lakers for a long time. Suns in the first, Portland in the Second and the Mavs for the WCF.
Scratch that, we have to put Denver in there somewhere.
I don't see the Suns getting the 8th seed...they're more likely going to end in the 3rd to 6th seed...
1st round: Thunder
2nd round: Spurs
3rd round: Dallas/Denver
That would be fun...
That's true. I just like to beat them down anyway. Kind of how I use to feel about the Spurs when they were relevant. It's pointless now.
No big deal here, Thunder just beating out teams for the 8 seed they're supposed to beat out.
Spurs will be there, it's wayyyyy to early to start making any predictions like this. Well except that the Lakers will be the first seed and still largely favoured to go to the Finals.
I would love to say that the Mavs can beat them, but I can't. The only way that happens is if Beaubois really develops into a solid player by the playoffs, and is able to exploit the glaring weakness in Lakers' D, defending fast PGs, otherwise known as Fisher being way over the hill.
Outta that TO in Florida he didn't look over the hill. Phil called his number...Kobe rifled it...Fisher used the crown of Nelson's head to sight it, and then his cold, cold blood to drill it.
Go have a chat with Aaron Brooks regarding Fisher's defense these days.
So what? Brooks blew him up. What, you want Fisher to quit, give it up, turn inward? Uh, uh.
Counting the Spurs out of the playoffs is the most ridiculous thing Legler could have done with this list. Including the Clippers in the Top 8 would have been less ridiculous. Here are my current projected 8:
1. Lakers
2. Mavs
3. Nuggets
4. Suns
5. Blazers
6. Spurs
7. Rockets
8. Jazz
I don't think the Thunder are quite there yet. They'll nab the 9th seed, only a few games behind the Jazz.
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