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Nothing in the current forecast for snow in SA/Austin ... but in Houston! 40% chance Friday during the day, 30% at night w/lows in the upper 20s.
35 for a high is just crazy.They are predicting it for Friday! The high is only going to be 35. Nothing is supposed to stick, though.
And FYI, Mountain Cedar has crept back in27 for a low on Saturday.
Nothing in the current forecast for snow in SA/Austin ... but in Houston! 40% chance Friday during the day, 30% at night w/lows in the upper 20s.
It is in the forecast discussion - at least the mention of the possibility. Just gotta watch and see how things develop but there is a chance for some right now (don't expect anything to stick).
I'm looking at the GFS temp plots and basically I doubt it gets cold enough Friday morning for San Antonio, but Friday night if there is enough moisture around then we might see something.
The timing is really really close and 3 days out there is a lot that can change. Something fun for people like me to watch though.
For what its worth, thats the latest rough GFS breakdown of precipitation type and it shows SA in the snow sector Friday evening.
Wow!!! Thats from the discussion this morning. Should be fun to watch the models over the next day but we're only 48 hours out and from them to be that bullish on the forcast has to make you think there's a really good chance to see this happen.THE SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL COME BACK INTO THE
AREA ON SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK AND THE SHORT-WAVE IS INDICATED.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT,
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AND THEN END FRIDAY
EVENING. DUE TO ONGOING COLD ADVECTION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW EARLY, THEN ALL SNOW AS THE EVENT DEVELOPS.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW AC ULATION
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO
DEVELOPING CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW, WILL
GO WITH UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
UP TO 4 INCHES AND HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF GREATER THAN
4 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR THE AUSTIN AREA.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE SNOW AC ULATIONS AND
this would be really cool!
The forecast seems to have changed a bit. Hopefully it will change yet again.
I hate snow! And the area is not prepared to deal with it at all. Throw a little sand/dirt on bridges and call it a day.
If it does, I'm staying home and getting wrecked. Better then doing so on the road...
So are you saying there's a slight chance?
Yeah, the guidance really changed overnight.
Of course, I'm in Houston this week and scheduled to drive back Friday afternoon. Could make for a very interesting trip - at least there aren't too many overpasses on 290 once you get outside of Houston.
According to weather underground. They are putting the chance of snow on friday at 70% temps in the 20s and 30s all day.
Could get interesting. Makes me glad i work from home.
It actually didn't change that much. They just don't like to forecast snow here for obvious reasons, so when they do you know its very likely.
Wow, good call!
I just arrived in Zurich, and yes there's snow!
Good job 1369!
THE LARGE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT
NE OVER THE NEXT 48-72H. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE AROUND THE BASE...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY AND
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST POSITION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE SNOW FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE 12Z MODEL SUITE WITH REGARD TO THE COASTAL
TROUGH...WITH THE 12Z GFS MORE BULLISH ON THE QPF...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. THE 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OUR SE
COUNTIES SHOW CLASSIC SNOW TRACES FRIDAY...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY
BE ALL SNOW. OUR FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY A BLEND
OF THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS40 SNOWFALL AMOUNT OUTPUT...MINUS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR ANTICIPATED MELTING. WILL PASS ON A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS AND
UNCERTAINTY WITH FORECAST COASTAL TROUGH EVOLUTION...BUT A WATCH
MAY BE NECESSARY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...HAVE UPDATED THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND CREATED WEB GRAPHICS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE SNOW FORECAST. IN ADDITION...A HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.
Soundings are the temperature profiles of the atmosphere. We get ice because a lot of the time there is cold air at the suface but overrunning warm air. There is cold air all the way up so anything that falls will start as snow and either melt on the way down or stay as snow until it hits the ground. It doesn't take much moisture at all to make a few inches of snow (1 inch of rain can make about a foot of snow if I remember correctly) so any moisture we get can make this happen.
wow, crazy
This. Is. Awesome.Chance of snow on Friday at 70%
Guess I'm driving my ass into town tomorrow instead of Friday.
Aint gonna miss the first real snow in San Antonio for the first time in what? 23 years?
Naw, the streak was broken in 2003. We got snow over Valentine's day weekend and it stuck for 24+ hours.
Get ready for some of the white stuff — followed by a blast of chilly Canadian air.
Up to an inch of snow is expected to fall on San Antonio on Friday.
The National Weather Service on Wednesday predicted that an upper-level disturbance will begin moving across the Hill Country and South Central Texas tonight. Snow is expected to begin Friday morning, followed by an unusually early hard freeze, in the mid-20s, by Saturday morning.
Officials with the city, the Texas Department of Transportation and area school districts are bracing for the wintry weather. Decisions about schedule changes and closures are pending, based on an evolving forecast.
“A rather vigorous weather system is coming at us from the north, bringing some pretty cool, almost cold Canadian temperatures and weather,” NWS forecaster Joe Baskin said. “There's a lot that can change between now and then.”
The weather service predicts that Bexar County has a 60 percent to 70 percent chance of receiving a half-inch to an inch of snowfall Friday.
The record for earliest measurable snowfall is Nov. 23, 1957, when 0.3 inches fell, according to the weather service.
In the past, trace amounts of snow have been detected as early as Nov. 8.
Light flurries might begin during Friday's morning commute and ac ulate through the evening. Most of the snow was expected to fall between noon and 6 p.m.
In the San Antonio area, temperatures are expected to peak at 38 degrees before 7 a.m. Friday, drop to the low 30s by the evening and hit freezing or below by midnight.
Baskin said ground temperatures would initially be warm enough to melt any snow. The weather service expects only limited ice in the form of sleet or freezing rain.
“Even though the snowfall is a significant thing, it's not going to be nearly as significant as the cold temperatures on Saturday morning,” Baskin said. He said temperatures will drop to about 25 degrees between 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. Saturday, making the season's first freeze an unusually hard one.
“We don't generally get a hard freeze as our initial freeze,” Baskin said. “Usually, we don't get the hard freezes until the end of January.”
Baskin recommended that residents bring in their pets and cover or move plants indoors. They also should prepare their pipes for cold weather or allow water to drip from outdoor faucets.
City and TxDOT officials said they are prepared to spray a liquid de-icing chemical on roads, especially ramps and bridges, if ice is predicted. TxDOT spokeswoman Laura Lopez said sand and crushed rock also could be used in worst-case scenarios to keep roadways from becoming slick.
The de-icing chemical that would be used, magnesium chloride, is the same one used to prevent slick roads last December, Lopez said. Nearly 400 accidents occurred after the de-icer was used, but Lopez said there is nothing wrong with the chemical.
“What happened last year is we were expecting temperatures to drop below 32 with precipitation,” she said. “The temperatures did not drop, and there was no precipitation. It was a judgment call because if we didn't put anything down, ice would have formed and there would have been accidents.”
School districts also will keep an eye on the weather and likely would make decisions on delays or cancellations early Friday, officials said. And while students might be longing for a snow day, Pascual Gonzalez, spokesman for Northside Independent School District, said that if school is canceled, the day will have to be made up later.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/Up_...ed_Friday.html
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...ther+Statement
We can only hope that this is going to change. This is from 544 this morning and will change later today.
544 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009
...SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY...
...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW...EXCEPT BRIEFLY RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. IT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SNOW WILL END FRIDAY EVENING
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALL DAY.
MODELS SHOW LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAKING SNOW AC ULATIONS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO
UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR FRIDAY.
since last night they have shifted the heavier snowfall to the east ... if that trend continues (e.g. the low pressure system travels further east than originally thought) we may get very little.
It snowed in December of 84! I made a snowman. Then Jan of 85, I made a Mr. T snowman.
That is exciting for San Antonio. I'm hoping we get some down here in Corpus but they are saying it's pretty unlikely for any sort of ac ulation. Then again, they said the same thing before it snowed 6 inches on Christmas in '04, if I remember correctly.
Each model run is getting drier. At this rate we may end up with nothing but flurries if that.
Dang that sucks. I was looking forward to snow!
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