Rockets, McGrady Involved in a Bevy of Trade Rumors

[Indazone]

Culburn, you're back!

[kingmalaki]

I don't think Houston gets ed on those.
Consider the fork they are in.
1) They can't guarantee Yao is healthy next season. IF he is not, it's blow it up time. Jefferson, expiring fits in beautifully with this. If he is healthy, they need to convince him to stay, which means championship shots; ie talent on the team. That CHI #1, after moving Deng, is likely going to be pretty good. Jefferson would be an expiring that you could trade for actual talent; he's never had Mcgrady's injury or cancer issues.
2) Do you really see better above, from your own post.

Washington: Caron Butler, Mike Miller, Randy Foye
Butler = Jefferson, both are expiring next year, No 1st

Philadelphia: Andre Igoudala, Samuel Dalembert
No expirings, long contracts, it will trap HOU in lux tax for a long time. Dalembert cannot play PF with Yao at C. Iggy >= Jefferson, but no first.

Chicago: Tyrus Thomas, Brad Miller, John Salmons
Miller is an expiring, TT is a lousy prospect at this point, and Salmons < Jefferson. The actual deal proposed in the article is worse, Hinrich +TT = Bad contract + poor prospect.

Knicks: Garbage, garbage, garbage, and Al Harrington
You really like Al Harrington do you? (who's expiring anyway...)

3) What happens if they keep TMAC and let him expire?. Assuming they decide to keep Scola and Lowry (both of whom will want raises) they commit to the qualifying offers, and have $44 million in salary committed. They are second or third tier players in free agency (compare with the nets, knicks, heat, bulls, Clippers, and Kings)...And they have to make the decisions while they don't know if Yao is Healthy.

Moving TMAC for a 1st rounder and put off the salary space until 2011 (when they know about Yao), while getting a usable player in Jefferson, and saving money this season.

Doesn't look like a bad return for a large expiring who's got a bit of a rep as a locker room cancer. I really don't think you're going to get more, and sometimes, it's best just to keep your options open until next season.

Child please. Why the would we take the older Jefferson (when we already have Battier & Ariza), and then let a division rival get the younger Deng. That's just dumb. Getting a 1st doesn't mean much if the offset is helping you guys get a young stud with potential. Get real now. We are trying to help Houston....not San Antonio. Trades that give other teams more of a benefit from T-Mac's deal than us really make no sense.

[The Franchise]

I think it will all work out for the best, because even if Morey says it no deal we're still in pretty good shape. Our worse case is holding onto McGrady and letting him expire, which isn't bad at all.

[pad300]

Child please. Why the would we take the older Jefferson (when we already have Battier & Ariza), and then let a division rival get the younger Deng. That's just dumb. Getting a 1st doesn't mean much if the offset is helping you guys get a young stud with potential. Get real now. We are trying to help Houston....not San Antonio. Trades that give other teams more of a benefit from T-Mac's deal than us really make no sense.

Because of the strategy fork from the uncertainty about Yao's health. Jefferson and Deng are both complimentary players. Neither is the man; both have shown they can't carry a team (RJ- MIL, Deng - CHI). If it's blow it up time (ie Yao has long term consequences), then you aren't stuck with Deng's contract. If it isn't blow it up time, RJ's expiring gives you the space to resign Scola, Landry, Brooks, etc.

Also note, the usual rule of NBA deals (and generally all economic situations) is not that all parties think that they got the best part of the deal; if that was the case, almost no deals would ever happen. Sometimes, even often, you make a deal that helps another team more than you. The question is, is this the course of action that maximizes HOU's return on TMAC (comparative vs absolute advantage). As discussed in my previous post, Jefferson and a CHI 1st is a better return (IMO) than what is on the table from other proposals (including just letting TMAC expire) in the thread.

I will admit, that if HOU is willing to take on Hinrich (3 years left), and Deng's (5 years left) long term contracts, they could cut SAS out of the middle, and get Deng, Hinrich, and a 2010 1st (CHI) for TMAC (after all, it makes no difference to CHI), but HOU's public statements (and cap position) have rejected taking back long term contracts that aren't of team carrying players...