Zachariah Blott: Something Smells Foul in Cleveland

[LkrFan]

LeBron James’ statistics are amazing. He’s putting up 30 points, 7 boards, and 8 assists per for essentially the sixth season in a row, and there are exactly zero players who can get close to that trio of numbers for even one season. But he’s doing something else, just as consistently, that no one else of consequence is able to do: not get called for fouls.

Look at the personal fouls column for the top-10 scorers in the league. Nine of them collectively average 2.7 fouls per, falling within the range of 2.3 – 3.4. These nine include some of the NBA’s biggest names who obviously have “earned some calls,” guys who can easily score 10 from the charity stripe in a night while getting the refs’ attention for only their two most obvious hacks.

And the tenth player? That would be James, who averages 1.8–and that’s rounded up. Many people suspect the league helps protect the Wades, Kobes, Anthonys, and other marquee players who keep those turnstiles turning, but how in God’s green earth does LeBron absolutely smoke them all in not getting whistled for defensive misdeeds?

And this isn’t the first time he’s been in the referee’s good graces to this degree. Last year, James averaged 1.7 fouls per. Going backwards from there, you have 2.2, then 2.2, then 2.3, then 1.8, then 1.9… then he was at his high-school prom. Not only is 2.3 fouls per the worst of LeBron’s career, it actually marks the best in the careers of both Wade and Bryant.

Is James, who happens to be the most marketable guy in the league, just that much superior to everyone at not fouling players? We’ve all seen him play, and he’s obviously a very good defender, but he’s no Shane Battier, Ron Artest, Gary Payton, Dennis Rodman, or Bill Russell. James, however, has done a much, much better job than any of them at not being whistled.

Breaking down in great detail LeBron James’ “amazing” fouls rate after the break…

Basic Statistical Comparisons

For starters, we should know how often fouls are being called around the league so we can see if there really is a big difference with LeBron. Through January 22, James played 1702 minutes and committed 77 fouls, good for one foul every 22.1 minutes of court time.

Everyone else in the NBA logged 298,868 minutes and committed 26,473 fouls, good for one every 11.3 minutes. Comparatively, James is half as likely to be called for a foul than the other 300-odd players as a whole. Without even picking up a calculator, it looks like most NBAers who would play 38.7 minutes a game, like James does, would accrue about 3.5 fouls per (remember that his 1.8 is rounded up).

But The Chosen One is no regular professional baller. He just happens to be supremely talented, score a bunch of points, and play on one of the best teams in the league. On top of that, James is the biggest marketing tool the NBA has as it expands its revenue base all over the world in China.

(Eastern Europe and South America have produced far more NBA players, but don’t vote for the All-Star team, aren’t having arenas built in their countries by the league, and don’t host preseason games.)

But the league has had other uber-marketable superstars over the past 30 years. Didn’t they get all the calls as well? Here are three players whose fame and status were similar to LeBron’s, and how their foul counts looked in their first seven seasons:

- As a Laker teamed up with Shaq, Kobe Bryant was a big deal from early on. He guards roughly the same players that LeBron does, and his defensive reputation has been better for most of his career. In Bryant’s first seven full seasons (following two as a reserve), his fouls per game ranged from 2.6 to 3.3, with an average of 2.9.

- Magic Johnson’s smile, collegiate exploits, and style of play made him an instant hit, which the NBA rode up to and beyond his untimely retirement. Magic’s foul counts in his first seven seasons ranged from 1.8 to 2.9, with an average of 2.5 fouls per.

- Michael Jordan was already well known when he entered the league in 1984. He was the NCAA’s consensus Player of the Year, and he had won a national championship at North Carolina. Not only that, I think it’s safe to say that Jordan’s defensive abilities and reputation far trump those of James (Jordan won the Defensive Player of the Year award in 1987-88). His first seven seasons (not counting 1985-86, when he was injured) ranged from 2.5 to 3.5, with an average of 3 fouls per.

Although these three had better foul counts than an average player, LeBron still registers far fewer. On top of that, Jordan and Bryant carried better defensive reputations during their careers, and James often guards big men inside, which almost always results in higher-than-usual foul counts.

Less Than One In a Million

Okay, maybe the Cavs star really is just that much better than the league, other current stars, and three of the most marketable superstars of the David Stern Era at not fouling the man he’s guarding. I’d say that’s highly unlikely, and thankfully math gives us a vehicle to measure how unlikely.

Using a chi-square test (it’s a pain in the ass to explain, so Google away if you’re so inclined) with LeBron’s foul data and the league’s foul data, one derives a chi-square value of 35.9, which translates into a P-value of 0.00000. The P-value is what’s of most use to us here because it tells us how likely something is to happen due simply to chance (e.g. 0.4 means it has a 40% chance of happening). This all means that the likelihood of LeBron’s foul counts occurring with his minutes is less than one in a million.

(A big thank you goes out to Dr. Bradford Crain, a statistics professor at Portland State University, who helped with the calculations and their interpretations.)

That astronomically low number has to be taken with a grain of salt since there are actually a few players in the league who fall into this category, but it’s usually pretty obvious why. For example, Steve Nash is committing a career-low 1.2 fouls per, but he’s such a bad defender, everyone he’s guarding simply dribbles past him and then he’s out of the play. It’s not so obvious with LeBron, considering he’s regularly guarding extremely dynamic players who routinely go to the line, and he’s often banging with the big boys underneath, where a majority of fouls are called.

A more meaningful way to look at the rarity of his foul counts is by comparing him to players who play similar minutes. There are 12 non-centers (centers’ foul counts are always high) who are playing between 38 and 40 minutes per. I decided not to look at their fouls per, since I already know how James stacks up here, but to look at how often these players get into foul trouble compared to James. If a player is in foul trouble, it affects how aggressively he can play in crunch time and if a coach needs to make subs utions, two things that can alter the outcomes of games.

These 12 players (not a slouch in the bunch – Bryant, Gay, Durant, Roy, etc.) combine for 469 games, during which they got called for 4 fouls 53 times, 5 fouls 31 times, and 6 fouls (fouled out) only 4 times. James has logged 44 games, 3 with 4 fouls, and 0 with more. In fact, 4 fouls is the most he’s been called for over the past two seasons.

Using a chi-square test on this data gives us P-values of 0.047 and 0.060 for games with 4-plus and 5-plus fouls, respectively (the calculations for 6 fouls are meaningless since they’re so rare for the entire group). That means that LeBron had a 4.7% and 6% chance of having so few games in those types of foul trouble due simply to randomness. Therefore, something else is at work here (most mathematicians consider anything under 5% to be “significant”).

Checking last year’s data, it’s even worse. There were 10 players who logged between 37.5 and 38.5 minutes per (James, 37.7), and collectively they played 777 games, 109 with 4 fouls, 48 with 5 fouls, and 13 with 6 fouls. James had 9 games with 4 fouls during his 81-game season. This data yields P-values of 0.023 and 0.0089, so he had a 2.3% chance of having so few 4+ fouls games and a 0.89% (less than 1%) chance of having no 5+ fouls games.

Yes, there is definitely something “significant” happening here.
Regular Superstar Treatment?

Maybe the face-of-the-NBA stars ranked similarly low during their top seasons. It turns out Magic was close, but none of them could match what LeBron has been doing for most of his career.

LeBron James

It makes sense to assume Michael Jordan stayed out of foul trouble during his 1992-93 MVP season. In 78 games, he had 4 fouls 10 times, 5 fouls 7 times, and he never fouled out. The nine non-centers who played between 38 and 40.5 minutes totaled 681 games, 124 with 4 fouls, 56 with 5, and 7 with 6. This data yields a P-value of 0.285 for games with 4+ fouls, and 0.936 in games with 5+ fouls. Thus, Jordan had a 28.5% and 93.6% chance of getting into foul trouble at the same rate as these other guys, and he was second to Hakeem Olajuwon in Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Kobe Bryant was similar in his 2007-08 MVP season. In 82 games, he had 18 games with 4 fouls, 6 with 5 fouls, and 1 foul out. The 12 players who played between 37.7 and 39.9 minutes registered 908 games, 162 with 4 fouls, 68 with 5, and 17 with 6. This data produces P-values indicating Kobe’s numbers fit right into this group; he had a 52.3% chance of having that many 4+ fouls games and a 80.5% chance of that many 5+ fouls games.

Magic Johnson did better in his 1986-87 MVP season, playing in 80 games, getting 4 fouls 10 times, 5 fouls 5 times, and never fouling out. The 10 non-centers with 37.1 to 38.6 minutes per totaled 799 games, 128 with 4 fouls, 82 with 5 fouls, and 19 foul outs. The P-values indicate Magic had a 5.9% chance of producing the amount of 4+ fouls games he did with that many games, and a 9.4% chance for games with 5+ fouls. I should mention that these percentages are actually skewed low by the inclusion of four players who had more foul trouble than anyone in LeBron’s years.

None of these players had a percentage fall into the “significant” range, and these three seasons represent some of the best case scenarios of likely “star treatment.”
Conclusions

There is no question that LeBron James is a freakish talent that can do it all, including turning a 17-65 squad into a perennial contender. Not only does he get a lot of points, rebounds, and assists, but he producers these numbers at very good rates (55% eFG%, 11.1 Reb%, 2.2 A/TO).

Where I have some concern is how seldom he’s in foul trouble. This gives an unfair advantage to the Cavaliers, since he never has to watch how he plays or sit for any reason other than to rest. The P-values show how extraordinarily unlikely it is for James to end up with these low foul counts, and his style of play and comparison to more-defensive-minded superstars makes his counts even more unbelievable.

The numbers all come out so ridiculous, it’s undeniable that either a) we’re witnessing a defensive talent more capable than Bill Russell, or b) the NBA/referees are blatantly protecting him. That first one was meant to be a joke, by the way.

Considering there are multiple studies indicating various referee biases, there are several examples of really obvious butcher jobs from the officials that always just happen to help the big-name teams and players, and at least one guy—who the FBI confirms was able to win 80-90% of his bets simply by knowing who was reffing—alleges the NBA has its hands in the outcome of games, I feel comfortable assuming the league is protecting its biggest star to a degree we’ve never seen before… and might never see again.

[LkrFan]

LeBronze fans: let me see you guys defend this article. If you have talent, and you are protected, it's no wonder LBJ is putting up stats year after year.

6'9" 270lbs with no post game. Yet he gets to the line like nobody's business. Talk about a manufactured superstar.

Let Kobe get the calls LBJ gets (or don't get - fouls) and he will give you 40 ppg, 8 rpg, 7 apg. Except it will be more efficient than LeBronze because anything inside of half court is within Kobe's range.

Remember... LeBronze didn't win Gold until Kobe played on the Olympic team. Yet LeBronze told everyone that will listen that he was the leader of that team. Get real.

[KidCongo]

LeBronze fans: let me see you guys defend this article. If you have talent, and you are protected, it's no wonder LBJ is putting up stats year after year.

6'9" 270lbs with no post game. Yet he gets to the line like nobody's business. Talk about a manufactured superstar.

Let Kobe get the calls LBJ gets (or don't get - fouls) and he will give you 40 ppg, 8 rpg, 7 apg. Except it will be more efficient than LeBronze because anything inside of half court is within Kobe's range.

Remember... LeBronze didn't win Gold until Kobe played on the Olympic team. Yet LeBronze told everyone that will listen that he was the leader of that team. Get real.

I took it serious until the bolded part. Who's troll is this guy?

[BRHornet45]

free throws should be completely eliminated from the game of basketball. the NBA has ruined the sport by handing out free points to their star players simply to inflate their scoring numbers.

[Basketballgirl25]

free throws should be completely eliminated from the game of basketball. the NBA has ruined the sport by handing out free points to their star players simply to inflate their scoring numbers.

good idea, won't happen, but I'd agree with this

[LkrFan]

I took it serious until the bolded part. Who's troll is this guy?

What in my post was wrong? The NBA has given way too much to LeBronze before he earned jack. He even has a nickname of "King" when he hasn't won anything. The NBA is giving him the keys, but he hasn't shown much of an improvement in his game since his rookie year. Put your head down, barrel to the hole, get an And-1, or 2 FTs - at least. His act is tired. And if you guys think that LA will lose to you bustas in the finals you got another thing coming. IF y'all get there. When y'all don't, you can go ahead burn all of your #23 Cavs jerseys because LeBronze will be gone like the wind.

[BRHornet45]

good idea, won't happen, but I'd agree with this

its the damn truth. I'm willing to bet that AT LEAST 50% of the free throws awarded to players like Lebron and Kobe are bogus calls just to help boost their numbers for marketing reasons. a point per game average of 27 compared to 21 looks a lot better on paper and the NBA officials can easily make that happen. the league knows what they are doing. it may not seem like a lot now, but tack on an extra 5 or 6 free throws with phantom/chicken calls every game and over a 10 year period that adds up.

Look at Kobe, he just reached 25,000 points and has averaged 8 free throws per game. do the math and that's roughly 6,400 of his points from the free throw line ... WELL OVER 25% OF HIS POINTS COME FROM THE LINE! ... now just imagine if he wasn't one of the NBA's poster boys and the refs actually called his games fair? imagine him only getting to the line 2-4 times per game like the majority of all other players who are playing just as hard as he is, but not getting the calls?... over a 14 year career, that is a load of points awarded to him on a silver platter. especially whenever you consider that of his 6,400 career free throws, you can rest assure that at least half of them were gifts from the league. at least 3,000-3,500 of Kobe's total points were not earned.

[KidCongo]

What in my post was wrong? The NBA has given way too much to LeBronze before he earned jack. He even has a nickname of "King" when he hasn't won anything. The NBA is giving him the keys, but he hasn't shown much of an improvement in his game since his rookie year. Put your head down, barrel to the hole, get an And-1, or 2 FTs - at least. His act is tired. And if you guys think that LA will lose to you bustas in the finals you got another thing coming. IF y'all get there. When y'all don't, you can go ahead burn all of your #23 Cavs jerseys because LeBronze will be gone like the wind.

Butthurt, obsessed Kobe fan. Nothing to see here.

[LkrFan]

Butthurt, obsessed Kobe fan. Nothing to see here.

Butthurt Kobe fan? I am first and foremost a Laker fan. Remember, the Magic swept us last year in the regular season too. Look at what happened to them in the Finals.

You know how many rings Kobe had by the age of 25? Answer: 3.
How many has LBJ won at age 25*? Answer: 0

Bonus question: How many rings have Shaq won without a dominant guard? Answer: None.

Kobe won a ring as the man last year - so there goes your argument that he can't win without Shaq.

*He looks more like 35, but that's just me.

[pauls931]

LA is looking human and LA fans are in panic mode.

[diego]

what a silly article. no one would argue that superstars dont get away with more uncalled fouls but... why pretend that all players play defense with the same intensity? or ignore that the rules have changed (comparing era to era). or that some guys are just stupid and more foul prone?

i did get a laugh at the laker troll suggesting that the only thing stopping kobe from getting 40/8/7 with better efficiency (lebron's TS% is 5% higher and his PER 7.5 points higher) is the refs calling too many fouls on him. because kobe has been fouling out left and right in his career, right? at least this thread is not a total loss after all.

[JoeTait75]

LeBronze fans: let me see you guys defend this article.

That won't be a problem.

LeBron usually defends on the perimeter, and not against the opponent's best perimeter player, at least not till late in the game. Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and Delonte West get the bulk of the defensive minute's on the other team's top perimeter player.

He really doesn't guard a man throughout much of a game. He plays more of a "rover" style of defense, playing passing lanes, looking for block opportunities off the weak side- activities that really don't result in many fouls. When you're not guarding a man, it's tough to foul a man.

And when he does guard a man...

LeBron is big enough so that players generally don't try to go through him, which leads to fouls. He's fast enough so that players generally don't try to go around him, which leads to fouls. He's tall enough and has enough hops to challenge jump shots without leaning into the shooter, which leads to fouls.

He's gotten away with some contact on those blocks from the weak side and from behind- the J-Rich 360 fiasco last year is a good example- but not excessively so. All four of his blocks last night @ Indiana were clean.

He doesn't get many foul calls on defense because he rarely fouls on defense. He doesn't have to.

[resistanze]

LOL @ the notion that if Kobe was called with 0.8 less fouls per game on the DEFENSIVE end, his OFFENSIVE numbers would astronomically rise.

What a .

[The_Dude]

LeBronze fans: let me see you guys defend this article.

http://blog.cleveland.com/cavshq/200...s_of_john.html

http://community.foxsports.com/tsuna...personal_fouls

http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=1256

^ Some good comments to read as well that explain why Blott has no idea what a chi-squared test is.

[SenorSpur]

If something smells afoul in Cleveland, it's probably either Shaq's penchant for self-promotion or his armpits.

[Killakobe81]

That won't be a problem.

LeBron usually defends on the perimeter, and not against the opponent's best perimeter player, at least not till late in the game. Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and Delonte West get the bulk of the defensive minute's on the other team's top perimeter player.

He really doesn't guard a man throughout much of a game. He plays more of a "rover" style of defense, playing passing lanes, looking for block opportunities off the weak side- activities that really don't result in many fouls. When you're not guarding a man, it's tough to foul a man.

And when he does guard a man...

LeBron is big enough so that players generally don't try to go through him, which leads to fouls. He's fast enough so that players generally don't try to go around him, which leads to fouls. He's tall enough and has enough hops to challenge jump shots without leaning into the shooter, which leads to fouls.

He's gotten away with some contact on those blocks from the weak side and from behind- the J-Rich 360 fiasco last year is a good example- but not excessively so. All four of his blocks last night @ Indiana were clean.

He doesn't get many foul calls on defense because he rarely fouls on defense. He doesn't have to.

agree with MOST of this if he played most defensive positions the way he defended Wade late in their last meeting he would get called for more fouls.
But he IS the future of the NBA OF COURSE he is going to get away with some fouls ...

[Killakobe81]

Guys that about "star" treatment ...should sTOP watching sports ..every star player Jeter, Brady Manning, Timmy, Wade, Kobe etc. they ALL get the benefit of the doubt ...

[The_Dude]

Remember... LeBronze didn't win Gold until Kobe played on the Olympic team. Yet LeBronze told everyone that will listen that he was the leader of that team. Get real.

Do us all I favor and go look at the stats from that year. LeBron hardly played in the Olympics that year, so it's pretty comical for Laker fans to call him "LeBronze" when he was sitting on the bench next to Melo and Amare while guys like Jefferson and Odom played big minutes.


Games Played: 8
FGM-A: 19-32
FG %: .594
3PT FGM-A: 3-10
3PT %: .300
FTM-A: 2- 2
REB/Avg.: 8/ 1.0
PTS/Avg: 43/ 5.4
AST: 13
BLK: 0
STLS: 6

In all, 7 players took more shots than LeBron - including, don't laugh, Odom.


http://www.usabasketball.com/news.ph...page=moly_2004


So in summary: you = fail.

[The_Dude]

Yeah, but Duncan and played, and they both stunk, and failed our great country, and it took Kobe to go to China and redeem our stars and stripes.

Isn't it kind of early in the morning to be drunk?

So you don't think that letting LeBron, Melo, and D-Wade actually play in the 2008 Olympics had any impact on the team winning the gold, and it was only Kobe? Ahahahaha.

That's funny, especially because LBJ put up 16/5/4 compared to Kobe's 15/3/2, and Wade put up 16/4/2. Kobe played well, but ignoring the fact that James, Anthony and Wade hardly played in 2004 and then claiming Kobe "redeemed" the team in 2008 is an absolutely joke.

[JoeTait75]

agree with MOST of this if he played most defensive positions the way he defended Wade late in their last meeting he would get called for more fouls.
But he IS the future of the NBA OF COURSE he is going to get away with some fouls ...

Of course he gets away with some stuff. But most of that is on the offensive end- some charging fouls, but mostly violations like traveling and palming. Hey, I like the fact that we have a superstar with all that goes with it. Makes up for what Jordan did to our franchise and how much he got away with in his playing days.

[The_Dude]

All I know is the league tried to ice Kobe out in 04, and build it's reputation around a boring Duncan, and the upcoming Wade/James/Carmella era. They failed so miserably, that Stern had to beg Kobe to play in 08. Now, the stats you posted are facts, but you what you failed to post is Kobe saying that he would not be the offensive destruction that he has been throughout his entire career, but he'd focus totally on defense to help improve the team's chances of winning the gold. He did just that, because he's a man of his word, unlike James and Wade. When the going got tough in the final moments of the championship game, and Pau seemed to be leading his county to another upset over the Americans, Wade simply goes over to Kobe and says, "IT'S KOBE TIME." What came after that was no doubt the greatest, most clutch shot in the history of International sports.

James, Wade, and Carmella had the opportunity to seize this moment, but they all bowed to THE GREAT ONE, while Duncan sat at home with his thumb up his ass.

:


This is where you belong: http://www.gatewayshospital.org/

[Killakobe81]

Of course he gets away with some stuff. But most of that is on the offensive end- some charging fouls, but mostly violations like traveling and palming. Hey, I like the fact that we have a superstar with all that goes with it. Makes up for what Jordan did to our franchise and how much he got away with in his playing days.

LOL tait im starting to enjoy your posts more and more...
I hear yah it's karma ...
but my post was not sarcastic reading it in your reponse made it seem like it ...
I'm old school. Jordan got those calls so Kobe and Lebron should too. As a coach I hate that stuff but it has ALWAYS been a "star" league and Lebron is a HUGE star ...

[Cry Havoc]

All I know is the league tried to ice Kobe out in 04, and build it's reputation around a boring Duncan, and the upcoming Wade/James/Carmella era. They failed so miserably, that Stern had to beg Kobe to play in 08. Now, the stats you posted are facts, but you what you failed to post is Kobe saying that he would not be the offensive destruction that he has been throughout his entire career, but he'd focus totally on defense to help improve the team's chances of winning the gold. He did just that, because he's a man of his word, unlike James and Wade. When the going got tough in the final moments of the championship game, and Pau seemed to be leading his county to another upset over the Americans, Wade simply goes over to Kobe and says, "IT'S KOBE TIME." What came after that was no doubt the greatest, most clutch shot in the history of International sports.

James, Wade, and Carmella had the opportunity to seize this moment, but they all bowed to THE GREAT ONE, while Duncan sat at home with his thumb up his ass.

I, too, wish Duncan and the Spurs would stop being hyped so much.

...

...



The fact that you actually believe this is why the Lakers fanbase is the worst in all of the NBA.

[JoeTait75]

What came after that was no doubt the greatest, most clutch shot in the history of International sports.

Doug Collins's free throws at the end of the '72 gold medal game say what's up.

[The_Dude]

Doug Collins's free throws at the end of the '72 gold medal game say what's up.

Lakaluva was born in 1998, JT. He has no idea that Doug Collins even played ball.