Official Trade Deadline Speculation Thread

[ace3g]

In world of trade talk, chatter rarely lives up to hype

I hate trade columns.

Weeks of speculation that almost never pan out and aren't anchored by any kind of reality. If it's not an agent looking to place his client(s) somewhere else, it's a GM, on orders of his silent owner, looking to create a market for a player he wants to to ditch. Even the "truth" of something, like Team A is shopping a player, is normally calculated by Team A for its own self-interest. Plus, almost everyone is lying this time of year; the teams that are really looking to do something deny it even when they're caught red-handed.

Hate them.

But you love them, and I get that. Nothing beats bar talk (How good would the Cavs be with Jamison?), and it's fun when it's not your job to check out every rancid, ridiculous rumor. But we are within two weeks of the Feb. 18 trade deadline, so I guess spending a few minutes dipping into the water isn't going to kill me.

So ... by this time next week, it's almost a certainty that Caron Butler will be gone from Washington, and highly likely that Tyrus Thomas will no longer be a Bull. By the 18th, Indiana's Troy Murphy and Philly's Andre Iguodala are certain to have new addresses as well, though those teams may well go right up until the 3 p.m. deadline to max out their suitors' offers.

Amar'e Stoudemire? For all the talk that a trade is a done deal, two people who should know swore to me Sunday that it's much more likely the Suns hold onto STAT than make a trade.

Stoudemire's declaration to Yahoo! Sports that he might well not opt out of his deal after this season and play the final season at $17.68 million next year, though, would seem to make him more likely to be traded than not; teams will be much more willing to take on one year of salary before a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is worked out than try to sign a free agent like Stoudemire not knowing what the new rules would be on new contracts.

Would Philly bite the bullet anyway, and make a deal, sending Iguodala out West? Not without some certainty that Stoudemire wouldn't opt out after next season, and the Sixers still believe he will, meaning they'd get probably wind up with nothing, as they certainly aren't going to be in a position to give him the $60 million for three years that he's been seeking. That's a non-starter for Philly.

Would Chicago mind if Stoudemire opted out? Probably not. He's not their target next summer; I remain convinced Dwyane Wade and/or Chris Bosh are. So if the Bulls deal for Stoudemire and he walks, that's just $17 million more in cap room for them.

On the other hand, the Bulls, I'm told, are terrified that if they don't move Thomas by the 18th, he'll happily accept the one-year, $6.2 million qualifying offer Chicago would have to tender him this summer as a restricted free agent -- a complete non-starter for a team that is determined to save every penny toward next summer. And if they don't tender him and let him walk as an unrestricted free agent -- what Milwaukee did last summer with Charlie Villanueva, for example -- they will have let Ben Gordon and Thomas scoot town in consecutive seasons while getting nothing in return, and that would be a hard sell to Bulls fans.

Sending Thomas to Houston as part of a package for Tracy McGrady's expiring contract would seem to be the way to go. The problem, though, from a source in the middle of all this, is that Houston is not interested in Kirk Hinrich, whose contract would be central toward making a deal with the Rockets work. (Chicago still has expiring pieces like Brad Miller that could make a deal possible, however.)

The Wizards' desire to move Butler has only increased in recent days, since they found out they will indeed get some cap relief from the NBA this season after losing Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton to suspension for the rest of the season. Washington's cap number will be reduced almost $4 million, according to sources -- pro-rated amounts of the remainder of Arenas's $16.1 million and Crittenton's $1.47 million salaries -- taking its cap number to a little more than $74 million. The cap threshhold is $69.9 million, meaning Washington could avoid paying tax if it can pare another $4 to $5 million in salaries off its books.

That means Butler, though I suspect the Wizards will ask inquiring teams to remove Mike James and/or DeShawn Stevenson from their payroll as well.

Butler winding up somewhere in Texas is most likely, with Washington probably deciding between Dallas' and Houston's competing offers before next week's All-Star Game. The Wizards are determined to get a young player back, though, and the Mavericks' only non-geezer is rookie guard Rod Beaubois -- while Houston has a young guard like Kyle Lowry and an expiring big man contract in forward Luis Scola to pair with McGrady's $22 million expiring deal.

(Don't discount Portland, either. While much has been made of the Blazers' pursuit of Washington center Brendan Haywood, the Blazers have just as much, if not more, interest in Butler, and are willing to put $3 milliion in cash toward a deal -- which certainly interests the Wizards. But Portland's refusal to put any of its young players other than Martell Webster in any potential deal puts it on the outside looking in. As has been reported, the Wizards want either Nicholas Batum -- no chance -- or Rudy Fernandez -- not likely, as he is a favorite of many inside the Blazers' braintrust. The Lakers would also love to repatriate Butler with Kobe Bryant, who would love to have him. But L.A. doesn't have the expiring contract/young player assets necessary to get seriously involved.)

As for Jamison and Haywood, Washington would rather hold onto both, though there's always a deal out there that can change someone's mind. Cleveland, as everyone knows by now, wants Jamison, but the Cavs still don't want to part with second-year forward J.J. Hickson, whom the Wizards looked long and hard at before taking JaVale McGee in the 2008 Draft. The Cavs and Rockets are also in the market for extra picks for 2009, and are willing to pay for them.

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/feature...8/morning.tip/

[ace3g]

Jamison headed to Miami. . .for Super Bowl

But should Wizards follow Memphis' lead and move him to Cleveland?

Antawn Jamison wasn't necessarily upset that the Wizards were unable to get out of Orlando this weekend. Sure, he would've loved to make it back to Washington and play the Atlanta Hawks at Verizon Center last night. But since the game was postponed, Jamison had a much easier commute to Miami, where he plans on watching the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl.

Jamison caught a short flight to Miami after Sunday's practice in Orlando. He'll join the team on Monday.

This will be the first Super Bowl that Jamison has ever attended, but the Louisiana native said it has nothing to do with the Saints participating. He's not even a Saints fan. He said he's a fan of individual players and thinks Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the game.

Jamison has no rooting interest in the game, but he purchased a suite at Sun Life Stadium so that he could have a good time with several of his friends. He said his wife, Ione, granted him some time with his boys to help get away; with this difficult season with the Wizards providing few opportunities for fun. Jamison made a similar trip to watch North Carolina win the national championship in Detroit last season.

I know there has been a lot of talk lately about the Wizards being reluctant to move Jamison to Cleveland given the bad blood between the two franchises. The apprehension is believed to be rooted in three hotly contested playoff series, and Larry Hughes's departure in the summer of 2005. The prevailing sentiment from people around the league is that President Ernie Grunfeld has no desire to help Danny Ferry and the Cavaliers win a championship by giving them Jamison.

But I had a recent conversation with an Eastern Conference executive who made a very interesting point. The executive said the Wizards should only be concerned about interest of the organization - not what Jamison could do for the Cavaliers - and used Memphis as an example.

Around this time two years ago, the Grizzlies traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Marc Gasol, Javaris Crittenton and two first round picks. The move was roundly panned around the league, with Grizzlies General Manager Chris Wallace credited with "gift-wrapping" a le for the Lakers.

San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich was one of the more outspoken critics of the trade, calling it "beyond comprehension" and suggested that the NBA establish a trade committee to oversee all lopsided deals. But recently, even Popovich had to backtrack, with the Grizzlies emerging as one of the surprise teams in the Western Conference and Gasol developing into a quality NBA center.

Although Pau Gasol reached the NBA Finals and won a championship the next season with the Lakers, it wasn't going to happen for him in Memphis. Jamison's dreams of winning a championship are not going to be met in Washington. Holding on to him doesn't really help either side.

Of course, Cleveland also has to be wiling to give the Wizards a deal as sweet as the one Memphis received for Pau Gasol. Some reports have the Cavaliers offering Zydrunas Ilgauskas's expiring deal, J.J. HIckson and a first-round pick, but I heard from a league source that the Wizards have not been offered that much. The Wizards, according to the source, have made their demands known to Cleveland, which so far has been unwilling to budge.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wiz...mi-for-su.html

[Sean Cagney]

LOL close to a deal, we see how close they were to that deal now. I doubt they make any trade, if they do it's just to dumb some salary and get a bench player in return who won't play.

[Blackjack]

Whether they make a trade or not, it's nice to have all the speculation in one thread and not one for each trade someone comes up with.

[Bruno]

Randolph is a "win later" player and Spurs are in "win now" mode. It doesn't fit well.

[ace3g]

and we thought the Spurs were close to deal because the Kings announcer is part of the Kings Front office, and would know what other teams were doing. Plus the announcer knew a lot of details about the trade "back up pg and forward", you never hear an announcer say something like without it already being in the media, it caught all of us off guard at the beginning of the Spurs game and thought they were close to a deal

[MaNu4Tres]

Randolph is a "win later" player and Spurs are in "win now" mode. It doesn't fit well.

Yeah, Randolph would be behind Bonner in Popovich's rotation for the remainder of the year as sad as that is.

[Bruno]

Yeah, Randolph would be behind Bonner in Popovich's rotation as sad as that is.

Given that Randolph is out for the year, I don't see how he could be ahead of Bonner in the rotation.

[timvp]

Hypothetically, if it comes down to Randolph or Ty Thomas for some reason, I go with Randolph. Thomas wouldn't help much this season anyways. I know it's an unsexy thing to say but Bonner is a better defender right now than Thomas. Thomas just doesn't get "it" yet.

[DPG21920]

Randolph is injured and likely out for the year. Nice piece for the future, but what about now?

[yavozerb]

Given that Randolph is out for the year, I don't see how he could be ahead of Bonner in the rotation.

Why is out for the year? thought he just had an ankle sprain

[MaNu4Tres]

Given that Randolph is out for the year, I don't see how he could be ahead of Bonner in the rotation.

I didn't know he was out for the year. I thought it was another month or so. Then again I haven't kept up with him the past couple of weeks.

[yavozerb]

Warriors PF Anthony Randolph will have his injured left ankle in a protective walking boot for an additional 30 days, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. This setback will likely result in Randolph sitting out the rest of the season. He tore two ligaments and suffered an avulsion fracture in his ankle Jan. 8 against Sacramento

from cbssports.com

[Bruno]

Hypothetically, if it comes down to Randolph or Ty Thomas for some reason, I go with Randolph. Thomas wouldn't help much this season anyways. I know it's an unsexy thing to say but Bonner is a better defender right now than Thomas. Thomas just doesn't get "it" yet.

Well, I doubt it will come down to that. Randolph's trade value is just a gazillion times higher than Tyrus' ones.

[MaNu4Tres]

Hypothetically, if it comes down to Randolph or Ty Thomas for some reason, I go with Randolph. Thomas wouldn't help much this season anyways. I know it's an unsexy thing to say but Bonner is a better defender right now than Thomas. Thomas just doesn't get "it" yet.

I don't think any big man out there would provide significant help via trade, especially with the play of McDyess of late and how productive Blair has been off the bench. I wouldn't want any big man out there to take away their minutes at the 2 and 3 spot in the front court rotation.

The only big I'd want to take their minutes is Amare. And that's not happening. You can question whether or not Camby or Haywood would be capable of taking the starting gig over, but how much better would that make us if that took minutes away from McDyess and Blair? Who have been very productive.

[Blackjack]

If the team is going nowhere as is (which looks to be the case) and the ability to find the right parts, while having the requisite time to incorporate them isn't likely, at what point do you just make a good trade; RJ doesn't fit and Maggette couldn't do much worse.

Depending on the configuration of the trade, the Spurs could better their team this year (with Maggette and possibly Bell) and acquire a player that has the potential to be a cornerstone of a franchise down the line; Randolph isn't the type of player readily made available to a team like the Spurs.

If Holt can stomach the little over $20M left on his contract after '11, I thinks it's pretty much a no-brainer.

[DPG21920]

This team is in an incredibly tough spot. A few weeks ago, I thought the team just needed a minor tweak (ship Bonner out for a solid more defensive oriented big), but now I am not sure. I cannot peg how far/close this team is to contention.

If they are not close, what does that mean with regards to trading opportunities. I cannot believe that the FO actually believes they have very little realistic shot as is. I think they believe they have what it takes. I don't agree.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

But Portland's refusal to put any of its young players other than Martell Webster in any potential deal puts it on the outside looking in.

Good to see Pritchard is being a tight bas as always...

[DPG21920]

Although Blair has been productive, he is not championship productive. I would definitely love to see Camby/Haywood/any other defensive big get Blairs minutes. Blair should be the third big.

Spurs need another play maker as well. Not the most glaring need, but would come in handy.

[pad300]

What do people think of the following?
Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy
for
Jefferson, Finley, Bonner, Mahinmi, 2010 1st

SAS gets to improve their bigs tremendously, Murphy >>> Bonner & Mahinmi. In salary terms, they become committed to $62 million for 8 players next year (vs 55 million currently for 7). Is Dunleavy a downgrade from Jefferson & Finley? The salaries are about $120,000 in SAS's favor this season.

[MaNu4Tres]

This team is in an incredibly tough spot. A few weeks ago, I thought the team just needed a minor tweak (ship Bonner out for a solid more defensive oriented big), but now I am not sure. I cannot peg how far/close this team is to contention.

I think the Spurs most realistic move they can make that would improve them the most is making an improvement at the wing a priority and trying to get a 4th big in the deal as the sweetener. IE Salmons/Thomas......Bell/Turiaf.

You plug in Salmons (all around more consistent wing) over the Bogans/Mason/ Finley combination. It improves your defense and offense instantly in this scenario. Not to mention will give us valuable insurance when Jefferson is in a funk ( which happens at least every other game).

[MaNu4Tres]

Although Blair has been productive, he is not championship productive. I would definitely love to see Camby/Haywood/any other defensive big get Blairs minutes. Blair should be the third big.

Spurs need another play maker as well. Not the most glaring need, but would come in handy.

And where are your minutes for McDyess? Who in my opinion has been playing great lately.

What exactly is championship productive? The guy has been consistent as you can ask all year, whether they play great teams or poor teams.

If anyone hasn't been championship productive or productive against great teams( since that's the only way you can really judge "championship productivity) it's been all of our wings from Manu to Finley. Hill has been the most consistent of the bunch in this scenario. Everyone else there's a huge drop off.

[doobs]

If the team is going nowhere as is (which looks to be the case) and the ability to find the right parts, while having the requisite time to incorporate them isn't likely, at what point do you just make a good trade; RJ doesn't fit and Maggette couldn't do much worse.

Depending on the configuration of the trade, the Spurs could better their team this year (with Maggette and possibly Bell) and acquire a player that has the potential to be a cornerstone of a franchise down the line; Randolph isn't the type of player readily made available to a team like the Spurs.

If Holt can stomach the little over $20M left on his contract after '11, I thinks it's pretty much a no-brainer.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMa...radeId=yfzednl

?

[yavozerb]

Although Blair has been productive, he is not championship productive. I would definitely love to see Camby/Haywood/any other defensive big get Blairs minutes. Blair should be the third big.

Spurs need another play maker as well. Not the most glaring need, but would come in handy.

I agree with that assessment. Right now he is simply an energy guy who should not be playing more than 15 minutes a night. Pop thinks this as well and that is why bonner is ahead of him in the rotation.

[MaNu4Tres]

I agree with that assessment. Right now he is simply an energy guy who should not be playing more than 15 minutes a night. Pop thinks this as well and that is why bonner is ahead of him in the rotation.

Blair's minutes have been increasing every month this year as has his production. From 13 minutes in Oct/Nov. to 22 minutes a game he's averaging now.

Bonner's have decreased. ( You can blame the injury but even since his return his minutes have decreased and Blair's have increased.)