You're spot on about Messina, it's a good indication of where Tiago sits as a player right now.IMO his game will translate easily to the NBA.
Doesn't Tiago have an outrageous buyout for European teams, much higher than his buyout if he's going to the NBA , though? Surely that'd swing the chances in the Spurs favor, unless they lowball him with a ridiculous offer. Besides, it'd be better for him to get an NBA contract before the 2011 new CBA, if he intends to have a long NBA career. Of course he might just be happy in Europe and wouldn't bother too much about the NBA, but this is something that's impossible for us to know, so I'll stick to the facts. And the facts are that his best chance to maximize his earnings is by sighning a 3 year up-to-the-MLE offer from the Spurs now in 2010, with the 3rd year as an option, so by 2012 he'd be in his prime and could sign a pretty hefty long term contract if he plays well.
Sounds logical to me, might be just my wishful thinking though.