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No Blair-Mason-Manu-Hill-Parker Unit?
(After searching through the forum, I didn't see a thread devoted to this. If there already is one, feel free to lock/merge this and point me in the right direction.)
Wayne Winston, who served as a statistical consultant to the Dallas Mavericks for the last nine years, and is the author of Mathletics, was kind enough to explore a handful of Spurs-related questions with me. Over the next few days I’ll put up a series of short posts detailing the more salient moments of our exchange.
At the outset of our conversation, Winston quickly pointed toward Tony Parker’s plantar fasciitis as the first place to start when discussing San Antonio’s underwhelming start. He referred to this as a “major issue.” Beyond this, however, Winston said “if the Spurs rotated through these lineups, they would be great.”
5-Man Unit (with Pts Better Than Average Per 48)
Duncan-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Parker-------------48.24
Blair-Duncan-Ginobili-Hill-Parker ------------------46.43
Blair-Bonner-Jefferson-Ginobili-Hill ---------------29.39
Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Hill-Parker --------- 27.74
Duncan-Bonner-Jefferson-Ginobili-Parker -------14.69
Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Bogans-Parker------11.29
Blair-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Mason ------------------ 9.27
Keep reading →
No Blair-Mason-Manu-Hill-Parker Unit?
Other than Roger Mason Jr.’s appearance in the final suggested lineup, it seems that the Spurs could move on quite easily without him. The same is true for another of their expiring contracts, Michael Finley.
None of that is surprising..it also isn't surprising to see that small ball isn't on the list..as I pointed out with the numbers in another thread, the Spurs are SIGNIFICANTLY better without small ball, which is obvious to everybody except the man that actually makes the roster decisions..
It also isn't surprising to see that Bogans doesn't make an appearance until the end, which shouldn't be the case, since Bogans has gotten the majority of his minutes with the best players on the team..
It would be more interesting to see what the numbers look like against certain caliber of teams and players, since the Spurs overall stats are all skewed by having such an easy schedule so far..so I would like to see how the better teams perform against guys like Bonner and Blair, since we've seen them get exploited by better big men a lot..
To be fair, Winston has also argued that Lamar Odom and Luol Deng have been better than Kobe this season(even before his exaggerated injuries)..
I don't think anyone here is really surprised by these results- the top lineups have ZERO small ball, with ample minutes for McDyess and Blair.
The amount of times each player appears in the top 7 lineups:
5 Duncan
5 Ginobili
5 Parker
5 Hill
4 Dice
4 Jefferon
3 Blair
2 Bonner
1 Mason
1 Bogans
Pretty disturbing that Bogans has started in 41 of our 52 games this season despite being one of the worst players on the roster.
The problem is that the other nonexistant member on that list is mason. The only option we have is to start Hill instead, and that obviously makes it harder to monitor the backup pg situation.
As much as we talk about needing another defensive big man, the biggest need on this team is a good guard and backup sf(or a combo-guard who can play the 2-3 comfortably.)
Starting wouldn't matter as much if Pops would start limiting his minutes more. 20+/game is too much.
Picking up Salmons/Thomas would have been great for us but it's too bad we didn't have the pieces necessary to trade for either player.
and yet our most used lineups are http://www.82games.com/0910/0910SAS2.HTM
Pop's saving the good lineups for the playoffs, He must be planning on making some playoff bets and hustling the NBA. which could also mean this is his last year and he's trying to make a little extra retirement money
Duncan-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Parker-------------48.24
Blair-Duncan-Ginobili-Hill-Parker ------------------46.43
... is anyone surprised really? The wings are kind of small, but hill is long and 6'6 is not THAT bad for small forward. Our best playmaker, our best driver, our best big man and a solid role player/defender (Hill), along with a good big man.
It kills me that those lineups often lose minutes due to small ball
Thanks, sorry I missed it. I searched for Wayne Winston and a couple other key words/phrases from the article, but I can see why it didn't show up.
I gotta admit, it would be really nice if the search parameters could be altered so that they didn't reject links as searchable.
ie. it rejects a search for "http://www.48minutesof .com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/"
You could also use Google, e.g.-
site:spurstalk.com http://www.48minutesof .com/2010/...inston-part-1/
(like this)
But that only shows a hit because you had the text of the URL display in full on your last post.
Well, I don't know, but I wouldn't call playing Hill at 2 and Manu at 3 playing big.
I know, though, that you were referring to the Frontcourt primarily.
I'd be happy just playing the last 7min of the game with either of the first two lineups over several games.
Hill and Manu are arguably our two best wings/guards rebounders.
Don't forget those are offense numbers... they only tell half the story...
Don't think so, as I understand Winston's methodology, he works off of the basis of +/-. Points against are a negative, and therefore defense is included.
Do you have a link to his methodology? You just got me curious.
But that would explain Bonner's presence too.
Would like to see the lowest avg +- groupings.
To me, these are better numbers to get the complete picture: Here
You get to see distribution with rebounds, and FG%, thinks like plus/minus simply do not cover.
Do you have a link to his methodology? You just got me curious.
But that would explain Bonner's presence too.
His book can be downloaded here:
http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?page_id=13
I'm not sure it explains everything, but its a start.
Thanks.
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