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spot on
at the end of the day, the only stat that matters is the win/loss column
Agree w/ most of your points Galileo except:
I think RMJ will come up big in the playoffs and the centerpiece will prove to be the more unreliable of the two and hopefully see the bench in favor of Hairston
I also think this team can go places if Jefferson keeps up the good play.
spot on
at the end of the day, the only stat that matters is the win/loss column
I am optimistic on this team and think the next couple of weeks will get a lot of the fans excited. Bring on the tough schedule. I think this team is ready to be forged!
As long as Jefferson doesn't play alongside Parker a lot, he'll keep up the good play. Most of his truly bad games has been when he was paired with Parker, and almost all of his good games have been without him. The Hill-Manu-Jeff-Blair-whoever lineup has been pretty effective all season.
Me too. I think the Spurs are going to finish strong and up their playoff position by season's end.
Last edited by Supreme_Being; 03-15-2010 at 08:12 AM.
we are underperforming, on paper we could beat any team on any given night...
when pop finally works out teh correct rotation for the playoffs, we fear nobody
If there's one thing I've learned during my PhD studies: This is true........and then some.
My thought? Yes they're only 2 points out of the Point Diff lead. I don't think that will be true once they're done with this stretch of games though. We will see them slide to 9 or 10 probably. That's more indicative of where the Spurs are. Being 14-20 against +.500 teams is the most telling stat for this crew.
partly agree. Spurs about to lose 4-5 games real quick.
Spurs can't beat:
cavs
magic
lakers
mavs
nugz
When the majority of your wins are against crappy teams, that's something to be concerned about. That's winning every fist fight against a woman, but getting your ass kicked all the time by men.
They're not 2 points out of the point differential lead -- they're two points per game out of the points differential lead. Over the course of 64 games, that's 128 points -- not 2.
And that point differential is, as several others have noted, a bit misleading. I figure the Spurs' point differential against the current top 9 in the West to be -1.8 (-41 over 23 games) and their point differential against the top 9 in both conferences to be +0.5 (+17 points over 35 games).
I'm pretty sure they won't be 6th best in the league in those categories.
There are 10 teams in the NBA which have won fewer than 40% of their games. The Spurs are 20-2 vs. the bottom 10 and 19-23 against the rest. The Spurs have only 4 games remaining with these bottom feeders.
They have 11 games remaining, 8 of which are on the road, against the top 11 teams in the NBA (the top 4 in the East and the other 7 playoff teams in the West). To this point in the season the Spurs are 6-16 against the top teams. The silver lining to these black clouds is that the Spurs started 1-11 against these teams and are 5-5 in their most recent 10 games.
5-6 against the top teams and 6-1 against the rest will result in a 50-win season. Combined with the return of a healthy Parker, there would be cause for optimism. They still wouldn't be a top 6 team in the NBA, but they will be a tough out and a respectable finish will give them something positive to build on for next season.
Not only that but the spurs have been fortunate to play the best teams all year with injuries and still often can't take advantage of it.
The Spurs will not win a le with a weak frontline interior defense. And thats it, so forget about looking for reasons why they have a shot to win, it is not happening this year.
I would rather see a top draft pick and some good offseason moves to shore up the frontline and come back with a roster that has a real chance next year.
Thanks, Debbie Downer
On paper they are poor matchups for the bigger teams in the league especially the Lakers.
Playoff series are not won by winning one game.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2010.html
According to the Simple Rating System on basketball Reference, which facotrs in strength iof schedule, we are the 6th best NBA team.
So where's the Spurs' 6 best point differential banner?
same place as the mavs championship banner
lmao 6th best point differential championship.
I agree that RJ will step up in the playoffs. He will have breakout games. If he is guarded one-on-one, he can be pretty good. i don;t buy the fact that a great player for all these years suddenly sucks. It all has to do with Pop's complicated system.
Yea, but that's only 2 points per game. If a team comes into a game as a 2 point underdog, the game is basically a tossup.
There's ample evidence that they can play with anyone so long as they show up and play. Sticking to your opinion despite evidence to the contrary is just silly. I'm not going to agree with foilhat that the Spurs "are a top 6 team" but it's not too much show the various measuring tools out there that suggest the Spurs aren't nearly as bad as those of us close to the situation might think. They don't need giant changes to suddenly become an elite team again, they simply need a number of small things to fall into place.
Okay, but they're not going to play the Clippers, Knicks, Nets, or Warriors in the playoffs.
As noted, the Spurs point differential against the 8 best other records in the West-- the field of potential playoff adversaries -- is a negative by almost 2 (-1.8). And they're 8-15 against those teams this season; if you remove Memphis from the equation, the Spurs are 6-14.
By the way, here are the point differentials for the Top 8 in the West against the other teams in the Top 8:
LAL +4.71 (21 games, 14-7)
DEN +3.90 (21 games, 13-8)
UTH +0.22 (23 games, 13-10)
PRT -1.33 (18 games, 10-8)
OKC -1.42 (19 games, 8-11)
PNX -1.83 (18 games, 6-12)
DAL -2.50 (20 games, 10-10)
SAS -2.60 (20 games, 6-14)
There's no doubt that the Spurs have played pretty well against bad teams, but the evidence is overwhelming to show that they've played poorly (to an extreme) against teams that will qualify for the West playoffs. About as poorly as any team in that group.
Against LA, they start out more than 7 points in the hole, by Galileo logic; against Denver, they're 6.5 points in the hole -- not 2 points down. And, curiously, those appear to be the Spurs' most likely playoff opponents.
Actually, the stats don't work that way. You're missing how significant two points is over the course of an entire NBA season, because it's far more than a made basket here or a stray bounce there.
The only thing the numbers show is that the Spurs aren't as bad as some people think they are.
These stats mean nothing. For one thing, you are using less data than my analysis did.
Another BIG problem - the Spurs lose most of their games on national TV during the regular season because other teams try harder in those games.
If you take the Spurs point differential in non-TV games, they are the best team in the league probably.
In the playoffs, the Spurs play better on TV, as their 4 rings prove.
The Spurs are +6.3 on non-TV games this season, making them a TOP 3 team.
So, wait -- "point differential is the best predictor of playoff success," unless you don't like what the relevant point differentials actually are.
I'm using less data because the playoffs use less teams, and curiously, I'm only including those teams who will happen to be in the playoffs. Now, I'm not saying, by any means, that the point differentials in my analysis or in yours are going to determine who wins any particular playoff series. But, if I'm going to use point differentials to make that call, I'd be far more inclined to use the relative point differentials among playoff teams than to use the relative point differentials against the whole league.
Nice on the Spurs' point differential in non-TV games. I'd be curious about who the Spurs have played in those games -- it seems fairly likely to be a boatload of teams that will be done with their seasons by mid-April and not too many teams who will be in the tournament at season's end.
And -- really? "Other teams try harder in those games." Really?
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