Last season, Tim Duncan broke down physically. From before the All-Star break to after the All-Star break, there was a dramatic dip in production. Unfortunately, this season -- numbers-wise, at least -- is a carbon copy.
Before the All-Star Break
Minutes: 35.3 in '08-09, 32.1 in '09-10
Points: 20.8 in '08-09, 19.4 in '09-10
Rebounds: 10.5 in '08-09, 10.7 in '09-10
FG%: 52.2% in '08-09, 52.7% in '09-10
After the All-Star Break
Minutes: 30.4 in '08-09, 30.8 in '09-10
Points: 16.4 in '08-09, 16.1 in '09-10
Rebounds: 11.0 in '08-09, 9.4 in '09-10
FG%: 46.2% in '08-09, 46.0% in '09-10
I haven't read anything about Duncan saying his knees are bothering him again, so hopefully the numbers are just a coincidence. He doesn't look anywhere near as hobbled as he did last season -- then again, Duncan is good at hiding pain.
I guess we'll see how it plays out but the end of the season could get extremely ugly if Duncan is indeed breaking down again.
The thing is, he always brings it for the playoffs. I recall him having a very solid series against the Mavs last year. Having said that, the Spurs are already hurting without Parker, a half healthy TD just isn't gonna cut it down the stretch to gear up for the playoffs. I'm actually surprised his rebounding numbers are still at 9 and a half per game, because if anything, to me it felt like he's really been slacking in that department.
Hopefully not, he'd better be gearing up for the important tough run and as you said he doesn't look nearly as hobbled as last season. I remember game 4 of the Dallas series, where in the 3rd quarter he was being guarded 1 on 1 by Ryan Hollins, and with time running out he threw a pass to Parker who was like 3 or 4 feet away from the 3 point line. At that time it was obvious he was having major problems, even if he hadn't complained prior to the playoffs, but you just knew he's not right. I don't get the same feeling right now, so I hope he's not going to suffer a similar breakdown.
His production has been slipping but it doesn't seem like injuries are bothering him. He's also had a lot of games where he was struggling to even buy a bucket; including the games leading up to the All Star game.
Its interesting that he's averaging a minute less but his numbers are fairly decent for a guy averaging less than 31 minutes a game. It'd be interesting to see if his PER, assists, blocks, etc got much of a shift too.
His numbers were down post-ASG, but aside from RPG they went back up to pre-ASG levels in the Playoffs...
Minutes: 32.7
Points: 19.8
Rebounds: 8.0
FG%: 53.2%
They'd look even better (23.8, 9.5, 57%) if not for Game 3, where he along with everyone else was awful, and the starters were pulled in the 3rd quarter. So hobbled as he may have been in 2009, if he can play at that level this year then I don't think he's the one we should be worried about... he and Parker were the least of our problems against the Mavs.
Last edited by Spurminator; 03-16-2010 at 11:10 AM.
. Now all we need is to fire Pop to make this trainwreck of a season complete.
He is getting plenty of assists, but what worries me is his apparent tendency to turn the ball over in crunch time. I still think he's healthy overall, but the really bad "passes to nowhere" is a slight cause for concern.
probably the two most important things we need from tim right now are rebounding and defense. sure it would be nice if we could depend on him for more scoring, but 15-16 ppg is enough if he is giving us D and rebounding. I'm sure he'll turn it up for the PO, but I also suspect his body isnt quite there for him if someone like delonte west is snatching offensive boards from his finger tips. we can only hope the increased playoff effort comes with an increase in health/stamina.
I think it's natural to see a dip in production when minutes decrease. Especially for an older guy. Also, I think the Spurs have been concentrating on getting other guys besides Duncan more involved so Pop can start fine tuning his post-season rotations. The Spurs haven't been playing tough teams lately, so they haven't really needed Duncan to win. I am sure we are about to see an increase in production down the final stretch.
JUST WATCH HIS LIFT. IF HE'S NOT JUMPING MORE THAN 3 INCHES, HE IS HURTING.
At the begining of the season, he said he needed to ride the other guys this year. That has yet to happen. Yes you should worry. As he should worry about arthritis in his late 30's.
His minutes are down a little bit and the other players have been stepping it up lately so that might have something to do with it. I'm sure come playoff time he will be fine, after all he has let us to a le multiple times with nagging injuries.
He specifically said he, and the rest of the team, would be riding Jefferson's production.
Pop has assured that never happens.
Manu's reemergence and GHill's emergence might have something to do with his production post all-star break. I think Timmy realizes that he can no longer bare all the responsibility himself and is now just pacing himself for this next stretch of tough games.
I don't think this is the same situation as last year at all, Tim is just taking it a bit easy because he knows he can't go full force if he wants to be healthy for the playoffs and since Manu is back he's kinda taken a backseat to the action.
Pop has done everything he can to limit TD's minutes and keep him fresh. It's been well chronicled that he plays fewer regular season minutes than your average star. If TD isn't producing as much right now, it can either be because of
an injury we don't know about
slow decline due to age
fewer minutes due to blowouts (last game for instance)
Either way, he is human and is declining more slowly than the average big. Look at Elton Brand's stats. He's on the below-average side of player breakdown, at just 28-30.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...brandel01.html
Chris Webber shows a dropoff in games played and production after age 32.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...webbech01.html
Shaq has been good, but inconsistent after 34.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...onealsh01.html
And finally Tim, at age 33, showing only slight declines, as we figured he would, due to less reliance on ath-a-leticism
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...duncati01.html
The Spurs offense doesnt revolve around Duncan anymore. This whole season has been about getting the new guys involved. If Tim doesnt say anything about his knees, then I assume he will be back to his normal self come playoff time.
We need to seriously sit him on the b2b... even though there big games... he still looks good to me, hes just not needed to be that guy anymore...
Since the Allstar break, the team has relied much less on Timmy. The only decline I have seen in Timmy of late has been his uncharacteristic inability to handle passes to him...almost reminds me of "Hands of Stone" Malike Rose, but I'm sure Timmy just had a few bad games and will break out.
TD is still the man.
Last edited by callo1; 03-16-2010 at 01:15 PM.
Worried? Absolutely.
Panicked? Not just yet.
The way Tim started the season offensively, it was hard to believe he could sustain it. It wasn't about the numbers, but the freshness and fluidity he displayed; his shot and the decisiveness in his moves looked as good as ... really ever (he looked that good).
So to see his production taper or to view him not looking as fresh as he did to start the season ... that's somewhat expected.
But given what we saw last year and the degenerative condition he's been plagued with, there is cause for concern. I've never believed Tim was one to pull an 'Horry', simply biding his time and not giving the team an honest effort and the best he had to offer, but I do believe he listened to his body. It's obvious there's been a significant deterioration in the fluidity and crispness in his moves and shot, the question is: Has the pain gotten to the point of being detrimental to his game; or has his body been barking at him telling him he needs to slow it down, and pace himself a little better, if he's to make it through the rest of the season?
It's not the minutes or numbers that worry me ... it's what I see on the court.
He doesn't appear to be injured, but there's clearly the look of fatigue, wear-and-tear and maybe just age, when see those trustworthy hands become fallible and his moves stale.
Hopefully it's a mere precautionary, self-preserving measure.
No
This alarming, but at the same time, it would be interesting to know the following
1. Timmeh's scoring has gone down because of his touches going down or not?
2. Are his rebounding numbers low of late because his hurting or is it bcoz RJ has been aggressive and collecting a lot of boards.
Physically you could see a change towards the end of January, he just wasn't as quick. I don't think he's hurting but I do think he's just carrying that mileage with him, he can't hang for an entire 82 games playing near All-Star form. With that said I think he'll pull through in the playoffs.
Not worried, the numbers are skewed because Pop tinkers with his minutes so much. If he can take him out of the game, he will to rest him. A fresh Duncan is a fresh Spurs team.
a Duncan in his prime couldn't carry this team to a championship.
so what's to worry about.
i think from here on out if timmy doesnt need to play dont let him play at all unless hes obviously needed, i mean keep him active but bench him . tonight i think timmy should sit and really just play tomorrow
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