Mavs game @ Portland is probably their season. I think it's reasonably safe to assume they'll beat Memphis, Sacramento and the Clippers. If they beat Portland, then the Spurs can't catch them for the division le. And having won out, I don't think Utah could catch them either - I think the Jazz will lose to Houston if the Rockets don't completely sit their top players. A win against Portland would also be a big confidence boost going into the playoffs - evidence that they can win big games when they absolutely need them.
Lose to Portland, and they open the door to the Spurs overtaking them for the division. If the Mavs are only one up in the loss column going into the regular season finale and the Spurs beat Memphis this week, then that game is for the division le. Spurs I think have the first tie breaker after a split of the season series. Good thing they still have to go play @ Phoenix and @ Denver.

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