Manu Ginobili: the under-the-radar 2010 prize?

[duncan228]

Manu Ginobili: the under-the-radar 2010 prize?
By John Krolik
ProBasketballTalk
NBCSports.com

Everyone knows who the big targets this summer will be: LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire (provided he opts out), Joe Johnson, and Rudy Gay, in roughly that order. Cap space has been cleared, articles have been written, baseball caps have been analyzed.

I understand all of that completely. Here's what I don't get. Last weekend, Manu Ginobili put up a combined 75 points in wins against two of the best three teams in basketball. A week earlier, Ginobili scored a combined 58 points in wins against Cleveland and Boston. Manu's missed one game in the past couple of months. That was the game the Spurs lost to the Nets. He's got the 2nd-best PER among shooting guards this season, and the 9th-best PER of any player in the league. And it's not like this is a fluke year for him -- Manu's had a PER mark of 22 or higher in his last six seasons. On top of all that, if you believe in the "proven winner" thing, Manu Ginobili is definitely a proven winner.

Here's the kicker. Manu Ginobili is a free agent in 2010, and there doesn't seem to be anywhere near as much speculation surrounding him as there should be. He does want to be a Spur, and the Spurs will likely want him back very badly. That being said, there are a lot of teams with a lot of cap room out there, and not all of them are going to get their #1 target.

Ginobili's age makes him a less attractive free agent than the other big names who will be available, but he's played 70 or more games in five of his eight NBA seasons, and last season was the first time Ginobili missed more than 20 games. What's more, Ginobili has a package of skills that should age extremely well. Ginobili is an underrated athlete, but he relies more on change of direction and misdirection than explosiveness to get to the basket. He's also a dead-eye shooter and very solid playmaker, two skills that guards retain as they get older.

I'm of the opinion that it's better to take a risk on a player who might get old before his contract expires than it is to pay a young player who hasn't proven himself yet like a superstar. If a player gives you three effective years and gets old before his contract runs out, there are two benefits. First of all, the importance of getting a good season out of a veteran player who you know will make an impact can't be overstated. As bad as Kevin Garnett's contract looks now, do you really think the Celtics regret making that deal? At all?

Besides, washed-up veterans have huge expiring contracts, which make them much easier to move. Teams will gladly give up talent for a contract that's a year or two away from expiring, and contenders will often take well-compensated veterans who off the hands of the team that overpaid them -- see Charlotte and Washington getting out from under the Stephen Jackson and Antawn Jamison contracts this season by trading them to contenders who needed a short-term boost.

On the other hand, giving a long-term deal to a young player and counting on him to take his game to the next level while making huge money can prove disastrous. Ben Gordon has a player option worth 13.2 million dollars for the 2013/14 season. Andris Biedrins has the option to make 9 million dollars in the 2013/14 season. The Bulls owe Luol Deng 14.25 million dollars in 2013/14. It's a bird in the hand/two birds in a bush thing. There are no hard-and-fast rules in free agency, but if you think you're highly likely to get two or three good years from a veteran signed to a five-year deal, that's better than giving a five-year deal to someone who might go out and underperform for all five seasons of the contract.

Ginobili's statistical resume is beyond reproach. He's won on every level, both as a superstar in international play and as a complementary player on the Spurs. He doesn't need to be the superstar, and was even willing to come off the bench in San Antonio. I don't have a crystal ball, and anything could happen over the course of Manu's next contract. I just get the feeling that Manu Ginobili is going to quietly make the team that signs him very happy while the rest of the league goes for broke chasing marquee names.

[mytespurs]

"Ginobili's statistical resume is beyond reproach. He's won on every level, both as a superstar in international play and as a complementary player on the Spurs. He doesn't need to be the superstar, and was even willing to come off the bench in San Antonio. I don't have a crystal ball, and anything could happen over the course of Manu's next contract. I just get the feeling that Manu Ginobili is going to quietly make the team that signs him very happy while the rest of the league goes for broke chasing marquee names.


Then I hope he continues to make the Spurs extremely happy!!!!

[diego]

Ginobili's age makes him a less attractive free agent than the other big names who will be available, but he's played 70 or more games in five of his eight NBA seasons, and last season was the first time Ginobili missed more than 20 games. What's more, Ginobili has a package of skills that should age extremely well. Ginobili is an underrated athlete, but he relies more on change of direction and misdirection than explosiveness to get to the basket. He's also a dead-eye shooter and very solid playmaker, two skills that guards retain as they get older.

I'm of the opinion that it's better to take a risk on a player who might get old before his contract expires than it is to pay a young player who hasn't proven himself yet like a superstar.

i think manu, to be manu, needs that athleticism; at least the balance and agility, for his offensive game and playmaking. to be a straight role player, not so much, but then he's in a different market.


but the second part is the point I've always made- there's always risk. hill didn't need to be old or play for his NT to get injured. RJ may feel compelled to live up to his contract, but that doesnt mean we can notice it. there is always a risk that the player you acquire doesnt work out as expected.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

The FO must be kicking itself that they didn't sign him to a 2-year extension early in the season.

It might cost 12-13mil/yr for 3 years to keep him now, whereas they probably could have got him for 2 years 20mil on an extension.

[DesignatedT]

The FO must be kicking itself that they didn't sign him to a 2-year extension early in the season.

It might cost 12-13mil/yr for 3 years to keep him now, whereas they probably could have got him for 2 years 20mil on an extension.

dont think manu wouldhave excepted 2 years. He wants 4 years... and i bet hes willing to take less money to whoever gives him that extra year.

[Brazil]

The FO must be kicking itself that they didn't sign him to a 2-year extension early in the season.

It might cost 12-13mil/yr for 3 years to keep him now, whereas they probably could have got him for 2 years 20mil on an extension.

I'm with you on this one

[El Parche]

For my first post may I offer that Manu will get on a few planes and drink a little champagne, see the sites in a few cities and get some major dough thrown in his face...and then will sit down at La Margarita, down a cold one and sign with the Spurs for 4 more yrs...for less money than some "spend first, ask questions later" teams would give him.

[EVAY]

For my first post may I offer that Manu will get on a few planes and drink a little champagne, see the sites in a few cities and get some major dough thrown in his face...and then will sit down at La Margarita, down a cold one and sign with the Spurs for 4 more yrs...for less money than some "spend first, ask questions later" teams would give him.

I hope that you are right. I fear that you are not.

I fear that the Spurs FO and the coaching staff have handled Manu badly, and that, although he is too professional to make it public, he is quietly pissed as , and intends to make the Spurs pay, one way or another.

And I don't blame him.

[BackHome]

He probably is not getting the hype because everyone knows that he won't leave San Antonio. Like I said before Manu just wants respect and for the organization to let him know that they still think he can play and can help them win games. If they show him that and give him a decent four year contract he will retire a Spur.....simple as that.........

Manu is from a different mold he is not only looking for money he wants to leave a legacy and he has a huge amount of loyalty. Thats why he would risk everything to play for his country and thats why he will sign for less to show his loyalty to the Spurs organization.

Four year contract probably 36 mill

[Spurminator]

Give him whatever he wants. He's better than anyone else we could realistically sign.

[ducks]

he wants rj type salary
he will have to go to new york
no contender can offer him 500k above the mle
that is what I offer him
offer him that for 4 years

[ducks]

The FO must be kicking itself that they didn't sign him to a 2-year extension early in the season.

It might cost 12-13mil/yr for 3 years to keep him now, whereas they probably could have got him for 2 years 20mil on an extension.

not if he breaks done in the playoffs for the third year in a row
and he SUCKED in the first half

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

he wants rj type salary
he will have to go to new york
no contender can offer him 500k above the mle
that is what I offer him
offer him that for 4 years

Ah, there's ducks. Thought we lost you there for a while, no posts on all the other Manu threads.

LOL.

[Spurminator]

No Manu, no Playoffs next year. And we'll all have to watch him exceed all expectations with a different team next year.

I was in Dallas when Mavs fans said the same stuff about Steve Nash. I don't want to watch Manu excel with another team like Mavs fans have had to watch Nash do. Manu has a lot of good years left, and his toughness and basketball IQ do not wear down with age.

Give him whatever he wants.

[Kori Ellis]

People keep mentioning that Manu wants four years... Can the Spurs even offer him 4 years, or is there something in the CBA restricting that?

[kaji157]

People keep mentioning that Manu wants four years... Can the Spurs even offer him 4 years, or is there something in the CBA restricting that?

Yes they can.

[DAF86]

People keep mentioning that Manu wants four years... Can the Spurs even offer him 4 years, or is there something in the CBA restricting that?

According to Bruno, yes they can. They are the only team in the league that can offer a 4 year contract to Manu

[Mel_13]

People keep mentioning that Manu wants four years... Can the Spurs even offer him 4 years, or is there something in the CBA restricting that?

The over-36 rule complicates contracts that extend beyond a player's 36th birthday. The details are all here. Good luck understanding it:

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q49

[Kori Ellis]

According to Bruno, yes they can. They are the only team in the league that can offer a 4 year contract to Manu

Thanks - I thought something related to the Over-36 rule made it more difficult... but I don't really understand the Over-36 rule anyway

[phyzik]

No WAY Manu goes to another team... It's unthinkable with the San Antonio fan base. He is, IMHO, by FAR the most popular player on the Spurs, even ahead of Duncan at this point....

Thats not a knock on Parker or duncan, it's just the way it is here in say town. No one doubts Duncan is the anchor and Parker is a top 10 pg in this league but Manu?..... damn.... he is absolutely the heart of this team.

take out the heart, kill the beast.

Spurs would be monumentally re ed to let him walk. Both in basketball skill terms as well as fanbase. I really think that if word gets out that the Spurs are not willing to re-sign Manu there would be picketing in the streets and I would be right there with them.

[024]

i can see ginobili leaving to go to a team like the cavs, magic, or lakers, especially if the spurs don't get very far in the postseason. he's a compe ive person so it's hard to see him spend the twilight of his career on a team rebuilding. however, out of those three teams, the spurs can offer ginobili the most money.

i will hold out judgment on ginobili until the playoffs since this is eerily familiar to 2008. i still want to see how his body will hold up during the playoffs. giving ginobili more than $11 million a year would be re ed from a business point of view since he will be giving diminishing returns after every year. right now, $8-10 million for 3 years with the third year partially guaranteed looks about right. ginobili is no iron man and he will miss plenty of more games in the future.

[TJastal]

i can see ginobili leaving to go to a team like the cavs, magic, or lakers, especially if the spurs don't get very far in the postseason. he's a compe ive person so it's hard to see him spend the twilight of his career on a team rebuilding. however, out of those three teams, the spurs can offer ginobili the most money.

i will hold out judgment on ginobili until the playoffs since this is eerily familiar to 2008. i still want to see how his body will hold up during the playoffs. giving ginobili more than $11 million a year would be re ed from a business point of view since he will be giving diminishing returns after every year. right now, $8-10 million for 3 years with the third year partially guaranteed looks about right. ginobili is no iron man and he will miss plenty of more games in the future.

Yah, let's see how well he holds up first carrying the entire team on his back while Popovich treats Parker like a china doll. If he suc bs to injury it will be lauded as such a brilliant cost-cutting move by the popsuckers.

[WalterBenitez]

I can not imagine Manu wearing another jersey

[Reeko_Htown]

I can't wait to see Manu and Scola playing for us next season.

Scola will recruit for us.

[Old School 44]

I can't wait to see Manu and Scola playing for us next season.

Scola will recruit for us.

Yeah, and sign Nocioni, Oberto and Delfino too.