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I wonder if Malik may share spot minutes with Mason... Pop has trusted him on crunch time on several games now all Spurs wins... I hope that now with Hill sidelined he proves he is as strong possibility especially as a defender.
With the NBA postseason just a few weeks away, it'd be nice if Pop and the Spurs were simply ironing the kinks out of the playoff rotation at this point. But with both point guards injured, Pop will need to be inventive to keep hope alive of not playing the Lakers in the first round.
That said, we've seen enough to get a decent idea of what to expect come playoff time. Tim Duncan in the starting five is obvious. From there, I believe that the next piece in the starting lineup has to be Manu Ginobili. Although he doesn't mind coming off the bench, there's no way Pop should mess with what's working so well. I'd go as far as to say the Spurs should continue to revolve around Ginobili for the rest of the season. If San Antonio is going to make a magical run, it'll be due to a certain Argentine guard staying scorching hot.
With Ginobili in the starting lineup, that means Richard Jefferson has to be in the starting lineup. Without Ginobili by his side, Jefferson has a tendency to play like a lost puppy. Ginobili is the team's playmaker on defense and Jefferson thrives finishing on the fast break -- it's a pairing that makes a lot of sense.
The bigman next to Duncan in the starting lineup should be Antonio McDyess. Truthfully, the reason McDyess starts doesn't have much to do with him. The reason is that both Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair are better options off the bench. McDyess gets the starting nod by default ... with fingers crossed that he peaks at the right time.
The question on every Spurs fan's mind is what to do at point guard. If George Hill wouldn't have gotten injured, I would have advocated bringing Tony Parker off the bench. Now, with Hill potentially out even longer than Parker, this becomes much more of a dilemma.
As it stands, I think who will start at point guard will come down to which player returns to the court first. If Parker beats Hill back, Parker should start for the rest of the season. If Hill returns first, you have to run with him as the starter considering how well the current starting lineup has played as of late.
Honestly, I'm more comfortable with Parker coming off the bench. Not because I think Hill is better but rather because I think Hill could be lost in the shuffle if put in reserve role. The Spurs need Hill to play a prominent role and starting him is the best way to ensure he has the right frame of mind. On the other hand, Parker's self-confidence might be his biggest strength as a player, so I'd fully expect him to contribute no matter his role.
(For the record, I'm perfectly confident with Parker starting. I know some Spurs fans think that Parker will come back and steal Ginobili's thunder and mute Jefferson's mojo but I'm not worried about that. Parker has proven to be a good defender in the playoffs and his chemistry with Ginobli has been good this season -- even when everything else was amiss. I have no doubts that Parker will give Ginobili the touches he'd need to continue to thrive. It's not like Parker is a stranger to deferring to Ginobili when Ginobili is playing well. If anything, a case can be made for Parker to be placed in the starting lineup no matter what due to the fact that he's the best player on the team when it comes to running a pick-and-roll with Duncan.)
As far as the distribution of minutes in the playoffs, this is how I see it:
Tim Duncan - 38 minutes
In his playoff career, Duncan averages about 40 minutes per game in the playoffs. Pop will probably give him a few extra minuets of rest this year.
Manu Ginobili - 34 minutes
Though Ginobili has never averaged more than 33.6 minutes per game in a playoff run, this year is different. Ginobili being a superhero is mandatory with this group.
Tony Parker - 36 minutes
Even though Parker will still be getting into shape, I don't see him playing less than 36 minutes per game -- even if he's coming off the bench. He has a history of quickly regaining game-shape.
Richard Jefferson - 30 minutes
Jefferson was brought in to soak up minutes but with Ginobili and Hill needing minutes at the swingman positions, I expect Jefferson to play around 30 minutes per game in the playoffs.
George Hill - 32 minutes
Hill has grown to become a big part of this team. Parker returning won't stop him from playing a lot of minutes -- or at least it shouldn't.
Antonio McDyess - 20 minutes
Let's hope McDyess is playing more than just the beginning of each half. If he's playing fourth quarter minutes, that's usually a sign he's producing.
Matt Bonner - 20 minutes
Bonner is a bit of a wild card. He's actually been playing pretty darn well as of late. Unfortunately, bad memories of last year's playoffs have me nervous about his ability to handle 20 minutes of action.
Keith Bogans - 18 minutes
Pop will find a way to play the "centerpiece". If the Spurs go up against a team with star perimeter swingman, he may end up playing even more.
DeJuan Blair - 12 minutes
I think 12 minutes per game is about the ceiling for Blair in his first playoff run. Pop usually plays him while Duncan rests as of late and with Duncan resting less, that means more time on the pine for Blair.
Roger Mason, Jr. - Spot minutes
Mason will have some value in the playoffs. If Parker or Hill are slowed, Mason can buy minutes in the backcourt. He'll also be called upon to spread the court if the other shooters are misfiring.
Broken down into position, I see the playoff rotation looking like this:
PG: Parker 36/Hill 12
SG: Ginobili 28/Hill 20
SF: Jefferson 30/Bogans 12/Ginobili 6
PF: McDyess 20/Bonner 20/Bogans 6/Blair 2
C: Duncan 38/Blair 10
I wonder if Malik may share spot minutes with Mason... Pop has trusted him on crunch time on several games now all Spurs wins... I hope that now with Hill sidelined he proves he is as strong possibility especially as a defender.
Perhaps, but if Pop wants Tony to contribute off the bench he will tactfully explain to him that he is going to bring him back slowly and thus justify his bench role.On the other hand, Parker's self-confidence might be his biggest strength as a player, so I'd fully expect him to contribute no matter his role.
I'm inclined to think that Hairston may enter the playoff equation, if only briefly.
Nice write-up as usual though.
I think Hairston will be on the outside of the rotation looking in. He could get spot minutes as a defender but if the Spurs are healthy, I highly doubt he sees regular minutes. I could be wrong . . .
Mason Jr is a liabily right now, he shouldn't get a single second in a tight game.
i would hope a few mins can go to hairston from hill and some of TD's mins to dice/bonner/blair.
No offense to Timmy and the greatness he's displayed over the course of 13 years, but right now at this moment Ginobili is the franchise for the 2010 playoffs. If he's this good consistently the Spurs can make a legit run.
I gave this a lot of thought too and I came to the realization that it's almost impossible for Parker to play 36 mins per game if he comes off the bench.
If he comes off the bench, he will miss at least the first 6 minutes of the first and third quarter, that's 12 minutes so for him to play 36 mins per game coming off the bench he will have to play 18 minutes per half in a row without rest, I don't know if that's the smartest way to manage a guy's minutes. If Pop wants to play Tony that amount of minutes (which I think he obviously wants) he has almost no other choice than to start him. Other possibility is to start him on the second half but I don't see the point of starting him in just one half.
I don't know if Hill will be able to handle >30mins/game after his ankle injury.
With the news that Parker returns tonight, I think that means he'll end up being the starter. However, it is interesting that Temple is reportedly going to start at point. That could be Pop keeping the starting job open for Hill.
If TP is starting along with Manu, do you consider starting Hill over Jefferson. I lean toward no just because Jefferson needs Manu but Hill is the better player ... and that's a pretty big factor when actually trying to win games.
I tend to agree with most of it..
I think RJ will get a little more than 30 and Bogans will get less than 18..
McDyess and Bonner will compete for minutes..Pop will go with Bonner if he's making shots and not showing weakness under pressure..if he does, Pop won't hesitate to take him out after last year's poor showing IMO..Bonner will be on the floor either way if he's making shots IMO, even if McDyess is playing well too..
I don't think Hairston or Mason will see the floor unless the Spurs need an offensive spark from Mason or a defensive spark from Hairston..I believe Pop is only playing Mason due to necessity, since the Spurs don't have any ballhandlers right now..this could obviously change depending on how Roger plays from now until the playoffs, hopefully he can step up..
These last few games and the severity of Hill's injury will probably determine the starting spot between Hill and Tony..
I could see Hairston seeing time at end of quarters or when they're solely looking to lock people down for a stretch, but very situationally.
Before the injuries, I would've said stick with the Parker, Hill, Bogans, 'Dyess and Duncan lineup that Pop settled on. They had finally built some continuity with both units and started to see success. When Parker went down, I figured the best way to keep that continuity for the long haul, and make the easiest transition back once Tony returned, was to subs ute Manu for Tony and keep everyone else in their same role; Parker comes back to the group he left and hopefully picks up where they left off and the bench is restored immediately once Manu's returned.
But since that all went to , for all intents and purposes, I'm very much thinking Tony should come off the bench if Hill's healthy and able.
I do have some trepidation as it pertains to Tony and RJ, and I'm not all that enthused with the idea of them starting together. But they obviously have to play together, they're too talented and important (Parker more so, obviously), to limit minutes on account of their fit. So I'd put Tony on the bench to start the game, in hopes of RJ and the crew getting into a rhythm and doing what they've been doing, and have him start the second half after there's been some kind of rhythm and confidence built. (We know how much better RJ plays when he's involved and successful early.)
As it pertains to Temple and his starting tonight, I give you Tyreke Evans. Sure, Temple isn't the ideal person you'd like to got to but when you look at the physical matchup, the options available (Tony's likely to just get his feet wet) and the fact that he spent some time with Sacramento this year, I can understand the decision; it's hard to be up in arms when Mason's the alternative.
I don't think Temple's starting has any real bearing on Tony's status moving forward; if all goes well tonight, it wouldn't shock me if he starts against Phoenix.
I think you start Jefferson and bring Hill of the bench but I think Hill is far more likely to be on the court at the end. The truth is that Hill can come in and spell Manu early and play well with Parker. He's much better without Manu or Parker on the court than Jefferson has shown he can be so I think he should take the minutes off the bench.
I'm really amazed that many people I consider the smarter posters on this board see it as an actual possibility to bring Parker off the bench. I know that we're all used to seeing Manu off the bench but Parker has never shown the lack of stamina that has plagued Manu at times throughout his career. That was the main reason he was brought off the bench.
I think you have to play an All NBA talent like Parker close to 40 minutes and that usually means starting. Especially in the playoffs. I love George Hill and this isn't a slight on him at all but I don't think the chemistry between RJ and Parker is bad at all much less bad enough to warrant changing the starting lineup.
For the playoff rotation, I would like to have for each half :
Hill / Manu / RJ / Dice / Duncan playing the first 4 minutes
Parker / Manu / RJ / Bonner / Duncan for the next 6 min
Parker / Hill / Bogans / Bonner / Duncan for the next 3 min
Parker / Hill / Bogans / Bonner / Blair for the next 3 min
Hill / Manu / RJ / Dice / Blair for the next 2 min
Parker / Manu / RJ / Dice / Duncan to finish the last 6 five minutes
=>
Parker : 36
Hill : 24
Manu : 36
RJ : 36
Bogans : 12
Dice : 24
Bonner : 24
Duncan : 38
Blair : 10
This way Manu/RJ/Hill play a lot together and we have also TP to play a good part of the game with Duncan and 3 shooters like last year
Great breakdrown!
Nice write up!
I think that RJ should be attached to Manu's hip reagardless of what line up is put out on the floor. And get Blair paired up with Manu, too. Maybe not so many minutes but whatever minutes Pop is willing to give Blair he should play a large % of them with Manu. Manu makes both those players so much better than TP.
As for Hairston he will get some minutes if a defensive presence is needed. The rotation will be shorten considerably in the POs and hopefully that doesn't lead to some of our players - TD and Mnau - being a little gassed at times.
In order to see a magical run all the role players will have to step up and be consistent. That's a tall order for them but not impossible.
As much as I respect your OP in this thread, I, as stated by many posters before me, highly doubt that Tony will come off the bench. He had time to rest his legs. He's fresher than anybody in this team and will play major minutes for this reason.
I think Manu's actual greatness will (and for good and obvious reasons) limit Tony's touch on offense and thus save some stamina. I expect him to play close to 40 mins.
Edit : How come you didn't give any minutes to RJ at the 4? You really expect no small ball from Pop? Seriously?
Because it's not about who's better, it's about getting the best results under the cir stance.
If all things are equal, it's a no-brainer to start Parker; I was even a proponent of it a few weeks ago. But they need all hands on deck and playing to their best potential, and if you throw Tony into that lineup and it upsets the chemistry and continuity that's eluded them just about all year ... it's not all that wise.
Now, Tony coming back this early and George's injury could very well change all that, one can only hope (because you do want Parker starting and the team thriving around him), but if RJ starts to fade into the background again and the team's thrown off kilter at all, you can't simply go with him because of his talent; especially when his game could conceivably thrive and even benefit the team most, short-term (in the way it would effect those around him), coming off the bench to start. (I'd start him in the second half once there's been a rhythm and confidence built so that you wouldn't hinder his minutes too much.)
Like timvp said, it's not a slight to Tony or some kind of admission that George is a better player, it's simply making due with the cir stance and providing the best opportunity for the team to thrive cohesively.
If TP has his speed back, Manu's ability to space the floor will help tremendously, which is something that we didn't have earlier in the season..a lot of people seem to ignore this..if Parker is healthy, he can still penetrate at will..earlier in the season when he was doing this(although he obviously wasn't healthy), the Spurs often had spacing problems due to having inconsistent shooters on the perimeter..
With Manu shooting like he has been, teams will have to respect it when TP and Timmy are on the floor with him, which opens things up for everybody..
I would like to see Blair getting all of the minutes that TIMVP gave to Bogans at PF.
Bogans does not make sense at PF, unless the other team is undersized or it is lamar odom/dirk type player who uses their speed.
Blair will make mistakes but he will also get easy inside baskets and will help with rebounding much better than bogans.
You know, since I DVR and then transfer to DVD, I watch the games a 2nd time. For that ugly New Jersey loss, I had to listen to Mike Fratello and the question was asked, What happens when Parker comes back? The Czar indicated, in his opinion, that Tony Parker is ball-dominant,I don't agree though there are times when the offense is simply Tim & Tony working pick & roll to death. It works, we all know it does, but I like balance and I like flow and this team has it right now. I'm a huge TP fan and I'm hoping that when he comes back, that balance and flow continue and then with GHill coming off the bench, that it's not just about playing well enough to not lose a lead but it's about really becoming a 2nd wave of attack. Think CP3 and DCollison or to a lesser extent, Russell Westbrook and Eric Maynor. Attacking Guards with speed and finishing ability can kill in the playoffs.
This is excellent analysis. Please, someone, show it to Pop.
seems about right... The more Interesting question is who closes the game.......
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