Playoff Rotation and Minute Distribution

[MannyIsGod]

I don't agree with you Shoog. I think its important for this team to believe in itself and I believe that it needs to continue to build upon the growth its had. You can't prevent injuries by sitting players. Something could happen to Manu one minute into a game.

I think the games are important and I think they have to try to win as many as possible.

[DPG21920]

Shoog, the thing is that this team, more than any other Spurs team seems to need the "momentum". They are not as mentally strong and killing the momentum I think is a bad idea.

I think you have to keep letting them run. Limit the minutes, but keep winning.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

both arguments have valid points


but i do think that during this and last regular season we have seen the results of Pop trying somewhat of an approach that resembles ShoogarBear's.

hard to tell the results in a perfect world because of the injuries

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah I don't agree with Shoog but I can definitely see the merits of wanting that. Its not easy to say which line of thinking is correct or if either will even matter. We have to pray for health for this team because without it everything else is irrelevent.

[ShoogarBear]

Eh, I just don't like the four games in five nights. Yes, it could happen at any time, but that's just a setup for it. I would play the out of Blair and Hairston during that stretch.

[DPG21920]

I am walking on egg s s right now. I love the way the team is playing. For the first time all year, I feel confident. Not that the Spurs are the favorites, but they are starting to get the respect back.

I just want them to make it to the playoffs healthy.

[DPG21920]

Yeah, it is a tough stretch, but I think you go into it playing with the intention to play the guys for the win. If you can get leads and play well, then you find the rest.

[timvp]

I would float the idea that Pop should semi-shut Manu and Tim down the rest of the regular season. The logic is:

1. The Spurs are not, say, the Hawks. The aren't looking for a good deep playoff run to build for the future. Their sole goal is to win Duncan another ring.

2. For the first time this season, there is feeling of a (still small) chance of actually pulling it off.

3. The only thing that will definitely move the chances back to impossible is injury. The reward for getting a 4th or 5th seed is not worth the risk of injury.

4. The priorities should be, in order:
a. Keeping Manu and Duncan healthy
b. Getting Parker back into synch
c. Getting everyone (esp RJ) enough just enough playing time to keep the gears oiled

The benefits of doing 4a-c is that you would also get some good reps from Blair, Hairston, and yes even Mason, which might actually come in handy in 1-2 crucial moments in the postseason.

The risk, of course, is that the Spurs would go into the playoffs rusty and having lost some momentum. But at this point I'd prefer to have them come in healthy, KNOWING what they are capable of, and maybe a little cold, as opposed to the worse-case scenario of pushing Manu 35+ minutes to eke out 1-2 more regular season wins and having him get hurt.

What you didn't mention is that if the Spurs shut it down, they guarantee a matchup against the Lakers in the first round. That is enough for me to want the Spurs to play out the string. The Lakers are still head and shoulders above the rest of the West. Avoiding them as long as possible is worth the risk.

You never know, they might get Mav07'ed.

[ShoogarBear]

What you didn't mention is that if the Spurs shut it down, they guarantee a matchup against the Lakers in the first round. That is enough for me to want the Spurs to play out the string. The Lakers are still head and shoulders above the rest of the West. Avoiding them as long as possible is worth the risk.

You never know, they might get Mav07'ed.

If the Lakers are going to lose in the West, I'm beginning to believe it will mostly likely be in the first round when they're still trying to get their act together. Maybe you don't want to avoid them as long as possible, because if they make it to the WCF, THEN they will probably be impossible to beat.

So, the Spurs can hope they get Warriored, but unlike 07 there isn't one specific team that is their Achilles Heel. Except the Hornets, I guess.

[diego]

shoogarbear has a nice plan, too bad pop didnt do that from day 1, would he change now? i dont believe in light switches. they have to build that intensity before game 1. its possible to rest manu and duncan without giving up the game, but it carries risks that go beyond plain seeding. FTL

[Fabbs]

Matt Bonner - 20 minutes
Bonner is a bit of a wild card. He's actually been playing pretty darn well as of late. Unfortunately, bad memories of last year's playoffs have me nervous about his ability to handle 20 minutes of action.

Keith Bogans - 18 minutes
Pop will find a way to play the "centerpiece". If the Spurs go up against a team with star perimeter swingman, he may end up playing even more.

DeJuan Blair - 12 minutes
I think 12 minutes per game is about the ceiling for Blair in his first playoff run. Pop usually plays him while Duncan rests as of late and with Duncan resting less, that means more time on the pine for Blair.

Fail.
a. Why should Bonner get more minutes then Blair when Bonner is sucking, which is a lot? Blair seldom sucks. If Bonner is sinking treys, great. If not, he's taking up space on O and D.
b. Dumbassovich is the one who insists on Blair and Duncan playing seperately. Why? Trying to make Blair be a 6'7" Wes Unseld center. Its b.s., Duncan and Blair play well together and when playoff intensity builds and the paint gets tough, i do not look for YMCA Bonner to excell. Tim needs help in the paint. Pop has tried his pussy Phoenix Suns 3 pt chucking lineups and they fail.

For that matter Jefferson can have 30 minutes IF he is not pouting and instead is giving effort. If not, get him off the court.

[EricB]

If the Lakers are going to lose in the West, I'm beginning to believe it will mostly likely be in the first round when they're still trying to get their act together. Maybe you don't want to avoid them as long as possible, because if they make it to the WCF, THEN they will probably be impossible to beat.

So, the Spurs can hope they get Warriored, but unlike 07 there isn't one specific team that is their Achilles Heel. Except the Hornets, I guess.

Portland for whatever reason matches up well with them and plays the well.

Camby and Aldridge together give Gasol and Bynum/Odom fits.

Roy is a tough matchup and for some reason they match up well.


Who knows.

I think second round, after a long 7 full game series vs the Blazers could get the Spurs by the Lakers.

[polandprzem]

TP
Bogans
RJ
Tim
McD

gino
blair
hairston
Matt


That are our main guys now, no matter the matchups.

I would like to see hairson more and let Mase go. Right now he is horrible

[EricB]

I think you gotta start the best 5 ala 2005.

Parker
Gino
RJ
Dice
Duncan

then come with Hill, Bogans, Blair, Bonner, foul trouble either Temple or Hairston.

I think Bogans in small doses is good off the bench.


Duncan high 30s low 30s for Dice Blair and Bonner hack up whats left, if Bonner is choking and bricking yank him.

Parker Gino and Hill all mid low 30s. Parker maybe high 30s depending on stamina.

[jiggy_55]

PG: Parker 36/Hill 12
SG: Ginobili 28/Hill 20
SF: Jefferson 30/Bogans 12/Ginobili 6
PF: McDyess 20/Bonner 20/Bogans 6/Blair 2
C: Duncan 38/Blair 10

Great analysis and writeup timvp. However, I disagree, the playoff rotation will be much shorter than this!

Duncan, Parker, Ginobili will all get 36+ minutes for sure. Jefferson and Hill will surely get their 32+ minutes a game.

Just look at RJ's last 5 games: 38, 34, 39, 38, 34. There's no way he plays less than 34 I would have to believe. He is crucial, no matter what you guys believe. Glad to have him playing his best basketball of the season now. Hill, if he heals quickly and is fine, will surely also get big minutes backing up parker and at the 2.

McDyess' minutes should be increased as well, unless of a matchup issue. I fully expect a minimum of 26 minutes for Antonio (with Bonner getting most of the remaining minutes).

As for Bogans, Pop cuts his rotations much shorter in the playoffs. I just don't see him picking up big minutes in most series, UNLESS of course the Spurs are playing against a top scorer (that's Kobe or Melo as possible options in the first round), I can't see Bogans getting too many minutes. In the case of us meeting any of the other possible teams (DAL, UTA, PHO) Bogans will not see much playing time I suspect.

[Waps1980]

For the playoff rotation, I would like to have for each half :

Hill / Manu / RJ / Dice / Duncan playing the first 4 minutes
Parker / Manu / RJ / Bonner / Duncan for the next 6 min
Parker / Hill / Bogans / Bonner / Duncan for the next 3 min
Parker / Hill / Bogans / Bonner / Blair for the next 3 min
Hill / Manu / RJ / Dice / Blair for the next 2 min
Parker / Manu / RJ / Dice / Duncan to finish the last 6 five minutes

=>
Parker : 36
Hill : 24
Manu : 36
RJ : 36
Bogans : 12
Dice : 24
Bonner : 24
Duncan : 38
Blair : 10

This way Manu/RJ/Hill play a lot together and we have also TP to play a good part of the game with Duncan and 3 shooters like last year

This is very similar to what I was thinking.
Only downside is we lack some 3 point power at the end, only Manu & RJ(sort of), Would think if we were behind Bonner will replace Dice.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

If the Lakers are going to lose in the West, I'm beginning to believe it will mostly likely be in the first round when they're still trying to get their act together. Maybe you don't want to avoid them as long as possible, because if they make it to the WCF, THEN they will probably be impossible to beat.

So, the Spurs can hope they get Warriored, but unlike 07 there isn't one specific team that is their Achilles Heel. Except the Hornets, I guess.

Good debate on this topic.

I think that first paragraph makes a lot of sense, but there is another thing you aren't considering - the player's reactions to sitting. The last thing a guy like Manu wants to do right now is sit - he is positively humming right now! The last thing he wants to do is sit around. Yes, injury is always a risk in basketball, but that doesn't mean you wrap the players in cotton wool.

I think you try to manage their minutes and keep them as fresh as possible, but they have to play if they're fit.

[Josepatches_]

Nice analysis by all.


As for Hill/Parker, you absolutely have to keep Hill as the starter if he can get back on the court within a week because the starters' chemistry has been superb. Also, Parker is more likely to thrive against opposition benches at this point given that he's probably rusty and may well still be affected by the fasciitis curse.

This.


It's not about who is better.The team was playing great so it could be a mistake to change it.


And Parker was out of gas in the 4th a lot of games this season.From the bench he will end the games at 100%.If TP is near unstoppable against starters he will score everytime he wants against the bench.
Tony is better scorer than Manu so if Manu played the role of 6th man really good all these years i'm sure Tony could do it even better.


To end the games knowing Pop we'll see small ball too many times.
Parker,Hill,Manu,Jefferson and Duncan. I'm sure.

[jjktkk]

Fail.
a. Why should Bonner get more minutes then Blair when Bonner is sucking, which is a lot? Blair seldom sucks. If Bonner is sinking treys, great. If not, he's taking up space on O and D.
b. Dumbassovich is the one who insists on Blair and Duncan playing seperately. Why? Trying to make Blair be a 6'7" Wes Unseld center. Its b.s., Duncan and Blair play well together and when playoff intensity builds and the paint gets tough, i do not look for YMCA Bonner to excell. Tim needs help in the paint. Pop has tried his pussy Phoenix Suns 3 pt chucking lineups and they fail.

For that matter Jefferson can have 30 minutes IF he is not pouting and instead is giving effort. If not, get him off the court.

Fail part2. Bonner and Blair are completely different players, as far as skill sets. King Pop has a nice rotation going right now. Plus Blair, while good, has hit the rookie wall as of late. Plus with Blair being a rookie, Pop will limit his minutes in the playoffs. I can see Pop going with the hot hand in playoffs with either McDyess or Bonner, with Blair getting less minutes, because of his inexpierence.

[Fabbs]

Fail part2. Bonner and Blair are completely different players, as far as skill sets. King Pop has a nice rotation going right now. Plus Blair, while good, has hit the rookie wall as of late. Plus with Blair being a rookie, Pop will limit his minutes in the playoffs. I can see Pop going with the hot hand in playoffs with either McDyess or Bonner, with Blair getting less minutes, because of his inexpierence.

Yeah Blair has really hit a rookie wall lately.
11 pts 11 boards in only 17 min vs NJ March 29th
10 pts 09 boards in only 17 min vs Hou March 31st
6-6 last night vs Kings with 4 boards in only 19 minutes.
Last 5 games Blair is 17-25 on field goals, albeit many of them chippies.

Matty Bonner meanwhile?
15-42 including 6-22 on treys.
Rebounding? Don't even ask.

Fail on what i posted? Give it up kid.

Blair getting less minutes then Bonner because as you can be quoted "because of his inexpierence." Reminds me of a Ross Perot vs Bush Scammer The Older Version.
Bush spin: "You have no experience with the national economy"
Perot: "Correct, i have no experience running up a trillion dollar debt."

Yes, true, Blair has no experience shooting 29% and playing weak D with no rebounds in a 1-4 buttkicking at the hands of Dallas.