I agree, although I think we have a slight chance. Very unlikely, but not unrealistic. I'm definitely not holding my breath.
You made the point why it isn't like that:
Normally, it'd be that way. In this case, this season, it isn't. Lots of teams with the cap space required + Toronto likely not being interested in TPE make this a different situation.he goes to Chicago, NY or Miami. Is he really going to forgo the extra 30M that he can get with a S&T just to get back at Toronto? I don't see that as likely.
Why would Toronto prefer a TPE and a 2nd round pick if they could get, for example, Scola+expiring+New York picks+Buddinger? What are they going to do with the TPE in the year before the new CBA? Just save the money? Isn't Scola+Budinger+Lowry+potential lottery pick worth taking on Jeffries expiring?
I'm confused. Are you saying Toronto wouldn't be interested in a S&T with NY, Miami, or Chicago?
They're not getting Scola.
If that's what they ask, they'll get him.
Sure they'd be interested. But the leverage NY, MIami or Chicago have is similar to Houston.
You're saying 2 contradictory things:
- Bosh doesn't have leverage to go to Houston because what if Toronto doesn't like it? He goes to Chicago, NY or Miami. Is he really going to forgo the extra 30M that he can get with a S&T just to get back at Toronto? I don't see that as likely.
- Bosh has leverage to go to NY, Chicago or Miami. Is he really going to forgo the extra 30M that he can get with a S&T just to get back at Toronto? Yes, I see that as likely!
I just think my Houston scenario gives them more flexibility when it comes to there future. I feel a TPE would just put them in a similar position to what they're facing now.
1. They can't trade Scola to Toronto unless Scola wants to go to Toronto.
2. I completely disagree.
3. Between the chop job and taking my comments out of context, you're attaching meaning to my comments that are yours not mine. Taken from beginning to end, in context, there are no internal contradictions in my comments in this thread.
As I said to the Rocket fans here, I believe Bosh ends up on a team with cap space. In the less likely event that a S&T is negotiated with a team without cap space, Houston has the second best assets in the state of Texas to make a deal with Toronto behind Dallas.
1) that's debatable.
2) Bosh is in the driver's seat, so even if Dallas had a better offer, that doesn't mean Bosh would want to go there. Bosh said this year in an interview that he wouldn't want to go to Dallas because everyone he know would bug him for tickets and wouldn't get privacy or something (take that FWIW)
3) Dallas wouldn't necessarily want Bosh. They might be more inclined to go after a different free agent with their package. Bosh and Nowitzki might conflict each other's games.
Last edited by Kai; 04-09-2010 at 01:29 PM.
1. It's not debatable. Scola will be a restricted FA this summer (I assume Houston will tender the necessary Qualifying Offer to make him an RFA). They can only trade him to Toronto if he agrees to go to Toronto. That's not a matter of opinion, that's the CBA.
2. True
3. True
I guess Chicago.
I hope New York gets nobody just so I can see the backlash
I didn't mean the Scola thing was debatable, I meant the part I bolded was. When you said Dallas had a better offer. You never know for sure, Morey might offer Martin/Brooks or whatever. It's possible that the Houston offer would be better than Dallas'.
Also, if I had to guess, I'd say Miami followed by Chicago.
Out of curiousity, what better package can Dallas offer?
Yeah, but why wouldn't him want to be? He wants to get paid.
With what?2. I completely disagree.
Of course there are. You still can't explain why teams with no cap space have less leverage. I suppose it's because if Toronto doesn't agree to the S&T Bosh can go there anyway and the Raptors will be left without nothing? But you said you dont' believe he'll walk away from $30 millions, so.. either it's a credible threat or a non-credible threat.3. Between the chop job and taking my comments out of context, you're attaching meaning to my comments that are yours not mine. Taken from beginning to end, in context, there are no internal contradictions in my comments in this thread.
As I said to the Rocket fans here, I believe Bosh ends up on a team with cap space. In the less likely event that a S&T is negotiated with a team without cap space, Houston has the second best assets in the state of Texas to make a deal with Toronto behind Dallas.
Bosh has the same amount of leverage if he wants to leave the Raptors, regardless of the team he wants to go. Even if he tells BC something like "I want to leave, my priority is to sign with the Rockets (or Dallas or whatever) so I'd like to arrange a S&T; if it can't really get done because you hate what they're offering, than I'm okay if you can work out a S&T with Miami (or Chicago, etc.); if none of this happens, I'm sorry but I'm just leaving for one of the 4 teams willing to give me a max contract" what do you think BC will do?
Dampier's non-guaranteed contract would be their biggest selling point.
Gotcha.
The reason I say Dallas could offer a better deal is because of Dampier's contract. They could use that in addition to other assets and offer to absorb one of Toronto's hideous contracts (Hedo or Calderon). Houston can't make one of those bad contracts completely disappear while Dallas can.
Of course, Bosh may have no interest in Dallas and Dallas may have no interest in Bosh.
A TPE and a 2nd rounder is enough to get a S&T done, even for an All-Star kind of player.
Why would Dallas take on one of those contracts? What other assets do they have that Toronto would want?
I'm done.
I stand by my opinion that Bosh has greater leverage to force a S&T to team with cap space than to a team without cap space. I've have explained why. Read the comments from beginning to end in context. It's all there.
You have a contrary opinion. You're welcome to it.
We'll get a resolution in July.
It's worth pointing out that traditionally teams that sign & trade a player to a team with cap room don't really get much compensation in return (Rashard Lewis was had for like a draft pick, Joe Johnson two picks). So Toronto might want more (from teams like Dallas or Houston) in return and they would just have to take on some expirings that they could deal at the deadline or just eat. Teams without cap room will have much more attractive offers.
They take on the bad contract as the price required to acquire Bosh. With drastic changes to the CBA on the horizon in 2011, this summer may be the last chance for Cuban to throw his wallet around to get a championship.
It certainly is conceivable that Toronto would find the notion of offloading Calderon or Hedo as the best possible outcome if they are to lose Bosh this summer.
They would take on bad contracts in order to get Bosh, if they think he's worth it. They don't need a whole lot more as far as assets. If Bosh wants to go to Dallas for sure, Toronto will want at least something in return. They'd take Dampier and cut him, along with some draft picks or whatever. It's either that or they let him walk and get nothing.
True, but you left out a few details.
First, Toronto would keep Bosh if was willing to sign a max deal with them. That wasn't the case with Seattle and Phoenix.
In the case of Seattle, they had no interest in keeping Lewis at that price. So they traded him for a protected 2nd rounder and a giant TE. Now look what they did with the TE. They took Kurt Thomas from Phoenix in a salary dump in exchange for two first round picks. They have already used one on Serge Ibaka, the other pick will be made this summer. Then they traded Thomas to the Spurs for expiring contracts and another first rounder. They already had one extra 2009 first rounder, so they traded the lesser of the two for Thabo Sefolosha. So for letting Lewis leave, they have Ibaka, Sefo, and one more first rounder. Plus they won fewer games in the short term and stayed a lottery team long enough to add Harden and Westbrook to Durant and Green.
JJ was a restricted FA. Phoenix could have kept him by simply matching Atlanta's offer sheet. They chose not to. They traded him for Diaw, who was still on a rookie contract and two first rounders. The first one was used to pick Rondo, unfortunately Phoenix was too stupid to keep the pick. The second pick was top-3 protected in the 2007 draft and Atlanta got lucky and moved up to third, so the pick was used to pick Lopez in 2008.
The point of all of this? With Bosh, Toronto is a borderline playoff team. Without Bosh, they are terrible. They may prefer to follow the path cleared by OKC and Portland, rather than try to add pieces to a badly flawed team.
I think that might be the case most of the time, but this off season is quite a bit different than the Rashard Lewis and Joe Johnson situations, mostly because there are a number of teams that have a lot of cap space to offer max contracts and with that there can be a bidding war, upping the cost of making a sign-and-trade deal for a guy like Bosh. I don't recall exactly, but I would be willing to bet that Atlanta and Orlando were really the only teams in the discussion to acquire Johnson and Lewis respectively and therefore had leverage and didn't have to give up as much as a team might this summer for a guy like Bosh.
BTW, Seattle also acquired a $9 million trade exception in the sign-and-trade that sent Lewis to Orlando, and that can be a valuable asset. And, Boris Diaw was part of the sign-and-trade involving Joe Johnson going to Atlanta.
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