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Believe.
Last postseason, I predicted the Mavs to win the series. Without Manu Ginobili and with a hobbled Tim Duncan, the Spurs didn't have much hope. This year, however, is different.
I'm predicting the Spurs to advance in six games. It'll no doubt be a closely contested series but I think the Spurs can and will pull the upset.
My confidence is due mostly to the Big Three. With Manu Ginobili healthy and hot, Tim Duncan reportedly feeling good and Tony Parker as pain-free as he's been all season, these Spurs won't go down without a fight. We've seen this team defy the odds since the All-Star break and being battle tested thanks to a harsh recent schedule has prepared them well for this fight.
The role players are more of an unknown. Hopefully George Hill is healthy. Hopefully Richard Jefferson doesn’t suck. Hopefully Antonio McDyess is alive. Hopefully DeJuan Blair gets to play. Hopefully Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. don’t choke again. Thankfully, the Big Three has carried mediocre supporting casts in the past. As long as Pop can find a few role players to join the ride, the Spurs should have enough firepower.
Speaking of Pop, I can’t lie and say I’m fully confident in the schemes he will employ. Against Dirk Nowitzki, I want to see a lot of McDyess and Bonner -- and little to no small ball. Double-teaming Nowitzki is a good move … if he’s hot. Doubling him too early could open up the floodgates for his teammates.
Offensively, I want to see a lot of Ginobili in the pick-and-roll. That’s how the Spurs survived when their backs were against the wall and that’s how they will have success in the playoffs. Duncan in the low block should also be a staple, although it shouldn’t be relied on to a fault. When Parker is in the game, I want him controlling each possession and making sure the bench unit gets good shots.
The x-factor in this series will be the play of Caron Butler. If he plays like a star, the Mavs are going to win. If he’s more of a role player, I love San Antonio’s chances. Obviously, I think the Spurs can slow Butler down, however I’m not totally confident since the Spurs lack a true perimeter stopper. Let’s hope Ginobili, Hill or whoever it is who will be guarding Butler will be up to the challenge.
I see the series starting with a Game 1 Dallas victory. It’ll be close but the Mavs will go on a run down the stretch. The Spurs will make a few adjustments and then win Game 2 by about 8-10 points. I think Game 3 will be a relatively easy win for the Spurs, while San Antonio will win Game 4 by a slim margin. Game 5 will be an easy Dallas victory. In Game 6, the Spurs will return home and get the revenge they’ve sought since 2006.
It’s going to be a first round battle for the ages. It’s going to be bloody. The chances will look bleak at times. But this Spurs team has heart and they will be the ones left standing after all the shots have been fired.
The Spurs got this.
Believe.
Top Ten Keys - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview
Player Analysis - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview
Last edited by timvp; 04-18-2010 at 03:12 PM.
Believe.
Nice writeup.Hope you are right.
The Mavs don't have the Spurs' number like in years passed. All of the Spur killers except Nowitzki and Terry are gone. Instead of relying mostly on schemes and plays that would pick our defense apart, they are more free-wheeling behind Jason Kidd. If the Spurs can limit his distribution and keep the Mavericks' role players in check, I think Dirk, Terry, and Marion could have a hard time keeping up with the scoring load.
The main goal of the season was to reach the postseason healthy. For the most part, that has been accomplished. Time to see what this team can go out and do with it.
FTM. Spurs in 7.
Believe is back.
I am surprisingly calm. That does not mean I am confident, but at this point I am glad we are playing the Mavs. Should be a good one.
Ive been waiting for this the whole weekend, ive got a feeling we will win these 2 games at dallas
Absolutely. If Pop trots out this then he is clinically insane. You know that definition about insanity - doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results. That would be Pop in this case.
I agree but what about Kidd? Can/does the Spurs have a player that can do to Kidd what Bowen did to Nash? Maybe Hill can if healthy enough but that's not for certain right now - that is his health allowing him to play to that level. I believe that Kidd is the head of the snake and if we can disrupt him then it is going to a lot easier winning this series.
Another thing to keep an eye on is how Dallas plays Duncan in the post. If they let Haywood and Damp play him straight up or if they bring the hard double.
Believe
They will play him straight up probably, but they will do what other teams do; dare the struggling Spurs shooters to hit shots by mixing in some well timed doubles or flashes.Another thing to keep an eye on is how Dallas plays Duncan in the post. If they let Haywood and Damp play him straight up or if they bring the hard double.
Believe
If the Spurs can keep them honest, then they will have a great shot.
Definitely going to need some great shooting efforts by Bonner + Hill. Seeing as those are our best 3 pt shooters they're going to have to hit shots.
I am interested to see how Dallas matches up against the Spurs defensively at the 1-3 positions.
Damnit...
I believe Spurs come out and smash a suprised Dallas in the mouth for the first game win, then lose the second game. Otherwise, agree on all other counts.
I would assume Butler will be the primary one taking on the challenge to gaurd Manu. Kidd,Terry,Barea,Roddy B have absolutely no chance in stopping Manu. Especially the way Manu is playing.
I really don't know to much about Butlers defense throughout his career.
Caron has always been a tough defender. But what I was really looking at was if you have RJ, Manu and TP on the floor when the Mavs have Kidd, Butler & Marion.
That very well could be the end of game line ups and I wonder if they will put Kidd on RJ?
That very well could be the case. It would make sense for them to do that.
I am concerend for the same reason I have been concerned all season. Pop at various times throughout the season has lost his mind. I expect that he will do the same in the playoffs and in the end cost the Spurs the series.
Do wee see Mason or Temple if George Hill is out?
Both.
If Mason sees more than six minutes of playing time we are ed.
If Hill is out, what else can they do?
I'm pretty worried. I can't shake the feeling that this series will be 2006 all over again...with overtime games, lots of drama and the Spurs falling just short.
So you think there might be a fight.
I will take that. If the games are close, Spurs will have a good shot. They have more weapons for end of game situations imo.
Agreed. That is probably the only thing that gives me comfort right now.
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